January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[JenkinsJinkies]

South East is still a funeral parlor

TN Valley is sticking the course on mid month improvement for the eastern US

Surprisingly no cliff jumping in Philadelphia

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

South East is still a funeral parlor

TN Valley is sticking the course on mid month improvement for the eastern US

Surprisingly no cliff jumping in Philadelphia

You can't cliff jump if nobody is there. 

[WesternFringe]

23 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Another thing - if you actually live there, LES becomes a stress because you really need to keep your roof cleared off so it doesn't collapse.  When you're a kid it's cool, but once you get older you start to worry about the roof on your older home.  And snow invariably seemed to blow into the attic and cause water issues in the ceiling.  

The vast majority of roofs there are built very steeply for that reason. My uncle and aunt lived in the Buffalo area and we loved to visit them.  I grew up north of Albany where we ‘only’ got 70” a year or so.

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

You can't cliff jump if nobody is there. 

I mean if a pattern is going to be bad for us it’s almost always bad for them too.

[stormy]

13 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean if a pattern is going to be bad for us it’s almost always bad for them too.

Not necessarily.   The snow-belt regions off the eastern lakes can get tremendous amounts of snowfall when we get very little or nothing.

[anotherman]

Not necessarily.   The snow-belt regions off the eastern lakes can get tremendous amounts of snowfall when we get very little or nothing.

I think he means Philly.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

Not necessarily.   The snow-belt regions off the eastern lakes can get tremendous amounts of snowfall when we get very little or nothing.

That’s more the case for Pittsburgh and the Alleghenies. Climo wise Philadelphia proper is practically an extension of ME MD.

[CAPE]

52 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Let's test the can kicking of the models. Below are WB EPS 12Z temp panels for the 15th.  Let's see which way they trend over the next two weeks.

The long term trend with the model guidance is our friend. What model at range depicted a cold and decently snowy December? Weren't we supposed to have temps in the 50s and 60s from Xmas to the end of the month? I had snow this morning with temps in the low 20s lol. This has been happening since mid August. Not concerned. Atmospheric memory and shit.

[T. August]

12k NAM gets some zr into the area Sat/Sun. Would be an ok hit if we didn’t torch at 850

[stormy]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

That’s more the case for Pittsburgh and the Alleghenies. Climo wise Philadelphia proper is practically an extension of ME MD.

Jamestown, New York can receive 18 inches when D.C. receives 0OOOO 

[T. August]

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

12k NAM gets some zr into the area Sat/Sun. Would be an ok hit if we didn’t torch at 850

18z GFS is, imo, close to something good. Low more north and cold press is better. Still south of the area but improved over 12z. Just something to watch I guess.

[JenkinsJinkies]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Weren't we supposed to have temps in the 50s and 60s from Xmas to the end of the month?

Some runs had us touching 70.

[Weather Will]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The long term trend with the model guidance is our friend. What model at range depicted a cold and decently snowy December? Weren't we supposed to have temps in the 50s and 60s from Xmas to the end of the month? I had snow this morning with temps in the low 20s lol. This has been happening since mid August. Not concerned. Atmospheric memory and shit.

I agree.....that is why I'm saving this picture for mid month.... 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, T. August said:

18z GFS is, imo, close to something good. Low more north and cold press is better. Still south of the area but improved over 12z. Just something to watch I guess.

Yeah there is a bit of snow for the lower eastern shore verbatim.

[JenkinsJinkies]

9 minutes ago, stormy said:

Jamestown, New York can receive 18 inches when D.C. receives 0OOOO 

Once you hit NY you get influenced by stuff that doesn’t apply to us. The only time it’s crap for them too is in a 2023 scenario.

[WesternFringe]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The long term trend with the model guidance is our friend. What model at range depicted a cold and decently snowy December? Weren't we supposed to have temps in the 50s and 60s from Xmas to the end of the month? I had snow this morning with temps in the low 20s lol. This has been happening since mid August. Not concerned. Atmospheric memory and shit.

100%!  Had snow this morning in Chincoteague where my wife and I were the last couple of days.  Home now where it feels like 26° and the low last night was 18°.

[Terpeast]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The long term trend with the model guidance is our friend. What model at range depicted a cold and decently snowy December? Weren't we supposed to have temps in the 50s and 60s from Xmas to the end of the month? I had snow this morning with temps in the low 20s lol. This has been happening since mid August. Not concerned. Atmospheric memory and shit.

Seems everything has shifted 10 days later. I have a feeling models will turn colder at day 10+ by friday. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Looks like the trend now is 6 and 12z punt and happy hour lives up to its name.

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Seems everything has shifted 10 days later. I have a feeling models will turn colder at day 10+ by friday. 

After all the numerous can kicks of the last 10 years, I sure hope so...goodness gracious. Yeah if we aren't seeing it move up in time by next week ya gotta wonder.

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

Nothing beats hometown snow.

I saw 7 feet of snow in the Nov 2014 Buffalo Lake Effect event. Very cool to see, but it can’t beat 2 feet on my own turf.

However, if you have not witnessed lake effect like that, it is worth the trip.


.

I have not, so maybe one day I'll do it. I have a lifted Jeep, so it certainly wouldn't be a problem getting around.

[IronTy]

58 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

The vast majority of roofs there are built very steeply for that reason. My uncle and aunt lived in the Buffalo area and we loved to visit them.  I grew up north of Albany where we ‘only’ got 70” a year or so.

Yeah, it depends on where you live.  I grew up in a house built in the 1800s so there wasn't exactly a snow code for that roof. 

[WxUSAF]

 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

The 5h trend is impressive. Going from a complete wall to a nice gap that could allow amplification is nice. TBH I was ignoring this one but will be paying attention now on out. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

I know where this is going for my yard if it amplifies...y'all could be in the game though!

[Silver Meteor]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

so far Pulaski has been a bust lol. Been watching this for 3 days. and nothing has really happened.

https://fatnancystackle.com/pages/pages-salmon-river-live-web-stream?srsltid=AfmBOoq0rhYtqPt-KY7XSwYNwngzQqaKAAg5CtmgbsnJN1ZFMHDxdsi0

Ah, Pulaski, Va. Haven't heard that town mentioned in many a year. Lived in Blacksburg, Va. for a while fifty years ago and visited the beautiful Cascade Falls area. Oh man talk about peaceful, that was a place. Snow can be pretty good in winter too, I remember once putting chains on my tires to get up a steep hill until I dared go no farther.  

https://gohikevirginia.com/cascades-falls/

[stormy]

31 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Once you hit NY you get influenced by stuff that doesn’t apply to us. The only time it’s crap for them too is in a 2023 scenario.

You need to understand that lake effect is totally different between northwest  Pa. and Phillidelphia.

This is 2 totally different worlds!!!!!!!!  Dear God! I thought your knowledge was advanced...................................    

 

[Solution Man]

@stormtrackerwhat’s your ETA

[Kevin Reilly]

57 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

That’s more the case for Pittsburgh and the Alleghenies. Climo wise Philadelphia proper is practically an extension of ME MD.

Works for me I’m sitting in central Delaware County only 30 minutes NE of Elkton Md.  Cliff jump here no because we already had an amazing 6.5” postcard snow back on December 14th.  My expectations for the amazing pattern and over hyped pattern on the models for 3 days was kept low, so come what may.  Maybe I can get a snow squall between 4 am to 8 am tomorrow morning. 

[Heisy]

is hamburg NY a nice place to live?
 

Id rather live in Worcester MA or somewhere in SNE with elevation because of the nor’easters. LES is cool but nothing beats the a good ol’ fashioned 20-30” coastal


.

[wxdude64]

3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

See you here in 2027. And 2028. Etc

If we were a smarter group we’d all go in on a piece of property up there. Or even something at DCL. 

Could work.