January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

People sleeping on the 240 hour CMC. Would be an absolute smackdown 

Plenty of opportunities coming. Might not be a 'mint epic perfect unicorn' pattern but those rarely produce. We just need a pattern without pAC puke and cold air nearby and we will get our chances. Doesnt need to be textbook.

[aldie 22]

26 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Rain per this run but doesn’t matter 

 

I mean it's not rain for people who moved recently 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GEM has been better than the GFS of late. JB has posted this on Twitter, but I don't feel comfortable sharing the tweet or a screenshot because his post is somewhat unhinged.

Shocker

[Ralph Wiggum]

54 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro AI has a very nice storm similar to CMC

That run was showing a chance every 2 days...and stj stuff involved to boot. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

That run was showing a chance every 2 days...and stj stuff involved to boot. 

Agreed. The 12z suite has been encouraging. I'm happy to see the Canadian and it's ensembles joining in as well.

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Euro op has a low offshore Jan 7-9 timeframe. Close to something here folks.

Careful with the language....there are children present

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, clueless said:

FYI: Models are waiting for @stormtrackerto get back if you are looking for dark blues on the ops. 

Duh. Told yall. No point at even looking for anything before Saturday. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

People sleeping on the 240 hour CMC. Would be an absolute smackdown 

It’s the CMC but yea. That’s FOLKS all day 

[Heisy]

Uptick in fantasy events today, 12z euro was so close to something crazy that run. Take away from today’s runs is that Jan 6-10+ has legit potential.


.

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Euro/EPS and the GEPS try to pop a +PNA just before the Jan 6th - 10th window. To see it on multiple ensembles is encouraging.

[clskinsfan]

The GFS was actually pretty close. GLL just a bit too separated. Game is still playing ya'll.

[NorthArlington101]

Can sorta see two distinct threat windows if you squint. Regardless, pretty active.

I'll take the GEFS control. 30" in one storm seems ok. 42" in 2 weeks

[Mikeymac5306]

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Careful with the language....there are children present

I got a picture of my kids in my wallet. Let's ease up a bit huh? 

[ravensrule]

32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The latter of course. Nothing has really changed. Just an op run didnt show porn.

You rang. 

[ravensrule]

23 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Duh. Told yall. No point at even looking for anything before Saturday. 

I'm looking for 1" on Thursday, can you help a brother out. 

[nj2va]

12z EPS has a pretty good signal for a coastal on the 7th/8th on the MSLP anomaly maps.  Waiting for the precip/other maps to roll in.

[jayyy]

I don’t have much to add other than people much more knowledgeable than I were saying 2nd week of January was when things would get active. Not sure why people are freaking out. It sucks to waste a week but it is what it is. We’ve been in much worse situations at this time in the season, with zero snowfall.

It’s like people haven’t lived here their entire lives and aren’t aware that we pretty much never get wall to wall cold and snow lol. Oh no… two weeks of transient weather before a pattern shift… how awful

Switching over to a solid pattern from mid January through early February is about as perfect timing as it gets.

[WxUSAF]

Ha, just saw the euro AI. Those surface temps are a joke. Hr 252 is particularly comedic. 

[Terpeast]

Very, very encouraging 12z suite. 

They are all taking shots at us in the second week of Jan. All it takes is one to hit.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

25 minutes ago, jayyy said:

It’s like people haven’t lived here their entire lives and aren’t aware that we pretty much never get wall to wall cold and snow lol. Oh no… two weeks of transient weather before a pattern shift… how awful

Switching over to a solid pattern from mid January through early February is about as perfect timing as it gets.

Yeah as others have noted if every op run doesn’t show an HECS for their backyard they panic, but yeah we have the pattern in good shape going into prime climo so let’s just see if we can something to hit. 

[Eskimo Joe]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ha, just saw the euro AI. Those surface temps are a joke. Hr 252 is particularly comedic. 

Yup. That's snow 10/10 times.

[WxUSAF]

EPS retrogrades the NAO ridge throughout the second week of January as it builds the PNA/EPO domain ridging. As the NAO fades, that would be another classic window for a coastal storm around the 12-13th.

[mattie g]

The Christmas season is obviously the best time to get a banger pattern with multiple shots at snow, but the next-best option is to have that same meetup during our coldest part of the year. Gives us a little wiggle room with temps and sun angle/length of day are still much more favorable than when we get into mid-February.

Loving the general positive vibes right now. We say this a lot, but just being able to track potentially realistic outcomes beats the hell out of wishing a an established crap pattern will somehow flip and turn into a snowy one in our neck of the woods!

[Alfoman]

Think the banter in here yesterday and this morning has been a bit restless and ridiculous to be honest. While there have been a number of rug pulls and pattern reversals over the years, seeing a window of opportunity line up in the mid-range with practically every index close to/in the correct quadrant is exceedingly rare. The beginnings of the NAO retrograde westward and Western US ridging are within the next 3-4 days, it is not a distant pattern change still in lala land. Getting the pieces to align and timing perfect so southern stream energy doesn't get squashed/sheared or that a phase doesn't only occur well offshore will ALWAYS be a struggle. We're hunting for a big dog coastal, it's a fragile balance. 

The stigma that we need a DGEX type solution every suite to overamplify every shortwave that comes through for us to feel confident...is irresponsible. We had plenty of rug-pull back then too, we just don't remember it as well because we hit more frequently than we have in the last decade. 

Look at the Euro AI if you want to feel something...three coastals in a row for the rough timeframes we have had pinned down for the last few days: 8th/9th, 10th/11th, 14th/15th. I expect the ensembles to start lighting up over the next few days at the least with some potential positive solutions. 

 

[bncho]

It's about that timeframe where you start to see some ensemble members show fantasy storms for great patterns. And they are starting to show that. There are lots of big hits. The ensembles have been lighting up.
 

[Eskimo Joe]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS retrogrades the NAO ridge throughout the second week of January as it builds the PNA/EPO domain ridging. As the NAO fades, that would be another classic window for a coastal storm around the 12-13th.

Sick

 

[jayyy]

Starting to feel like we won’t have to wait too much longer. The day 7-10 window is starting to peak my interest for a legit threat. The dominos start to fall in the coming days as the NAO retrogrades.