January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[UnitedWx]

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Yup.  According to euro, snowing aloft at 18z.  It may take a while to saturate.

I could see it coming in like a wall after it does. If this works out, that's a ton of moisture slamming into the area 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Big potential around the 30th too.  We will probably need a separate thread for the Sunday-Monday event if we wake up to good 06zs tomorrow.

[kdxken]

This is getting bad 

 

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Most guidance is like 7am Sunday for CT, and these always start earlier 

7am? Now I need to go back and look again... crazy effed up day here, but i swear it was later

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

7am? Now I need to go back and look again... crazy effed up day, but i swear it was later

Maybe he meant 7pm?  7 am sounds way to  early? 

[Fozz]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m pretty bullish on this for a widespread 12+ event.  Overrunning systems like PD2 are prolific moisture producers.  Screw zones notwithstanding, this should be a biggie for most of us at least in the southern 3 New England states but I would not rule out CNE either.

Your wisdom makes me feel better about this. Let’s get this done. I’m nervous but cautiously optimistic.

[Cyclone-68]

Who was it that said sometimes the really big storms will often have a model consensus from several days out?

[8611Blizz]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Who was it that said sometimes the really big storms will often have a model consensus from several days out?

DT

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Follow the mark model folks. 

 

I have that guy blocked. Insufferable. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro is 7am start time Sunday. Seemo knows.

[UnitedWx]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe he meant 7pm?  7 am sounds way to  early? 

Yeah, I'm sure i saw the Euro earlier and it was later afternoon Sunday through about the same time Monday afternoon. For sure these details will change. I'll tell you, I have a good gut feeling about this one. There's so much energy available if there's any sort of phase 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

The NBM jack zone is pretty far north now stretching from Roanoke VA to Monmouth county NJ. 

[UnitedWx]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro is 7am start time Sunday. Seemo knows.

Must be the latest run... it was far later earlier 

[Torch Tiger]

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

This is getting bad 

 

i am not even going to ask of the rabbit hole you went down to find this

[UnitedWx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The NBM jack zone is pretty far north now stretching from Roanoke to Monmouth county NJ. 

And slowly working north run to run. Interesting to watch for sure

[moneypitmike]

59 minutes ago, alex said:

A bit stronger now 

visuble here at Pit2 also.  Always nice to see.

[UnitedWx]

Off to bed, 4:45 am alarm tomorrow. Hoping to see 25 pages added when I wake up lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

34 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Not in this case, it actually matches the euro at 84 hours pretty damn close at 500. At this stage just looking for continuity or trends at 500

Exactly. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

Must be the latest run... it was far later earlier 

As this whole phasing idea is gaining steam…that seemed to delay the start somewhat it seemed. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Icon was slightly flatter on the precip shield

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[moneypitmike]

19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Most guidance is like 7am Sunday for CT, and these always start earlier 

Except when they dont.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Icon was slightly flatter on the precip shield

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

Way better look at h5 though with significant phasing out west. It kind of squirts just a little east at the end but it’s a much higher end look a couple panels before that. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Except when they dont.

WAA almost always start earlier than modeled, let’s see what happens with the arctic air in place 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Way better look at h5 though with significant phasing out west. It kind of squirts just a little east at the end but it’s a much higher end look a couple panels before that. 

yeah, completely reversed the 18z shift

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Some of these solutions are almost hard to believe lol. The 18z euro is literally days and days. Probably at least Monday and Tuesday off for the kids if that verified

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, kdxken said:

This is getting bad 

 

I posted that in our text chain....what an ass.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, completely reversed the 18z shift

Wild shift...Jesus. That isn't clown range....

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Anyone know if the Pineapple Express sampling today was ingested for 00z data 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wild shift...Jesus. That isn't clown range....

Rgem Same thing 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Some of these solutions are almost hard to believe lol. The 18z euro is literally days and days. Probably at least Monday and Tuesday off for the kids if that verified

Yeah, Euro op was nuts.  Redevelops a secondary low.