January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Not on the AI ensembles . Loaded with gulf moisture. Regular models overdoing confluence as they are bias to do 

I’m certainly not writing off the possibility, just skeptical right now.

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Suppression threat is real. 
 

Gfs overdoes that sometimes 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m certainly not writing off the possibility, just skeptical right now.

Skeptical is the right thing to be imo. But I don’t know if saying suppression is likely today is accurate.  It’s certainly possible, but likely might be premature on Monday here.  If the confluence/cold strengthens even more going forward, then obviously it won’t get up here. 
 

If this is a Saturday deal, I’ll miss it anyway(I’ll be sledding). If it’s more of a Sunday deal I might catch it. But that’s neither here nor there. It’ll be interesting to see how it goes over his week. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m certainly not writing off the possibility, just skeptical right now.

Yeah. I would lean 80% it’s wagons way south right now.  
 

Hopefully the AI has a clue. 

[George001]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. I would lean 80% it’s wagons way south right now.  
 

Hopefully the AI has a clue. 

I’m not sure about the wagons south thing, it’s a massive storm. There is a lot of energy flying around.

[Spanks45]

AI GFS bumped south at 12z...still brings precip north, but no where near as much as before. Confluence way stronger than 6z

[CoastalWx]

Gfs op crept north a bit. Still gonna be tough imo to get anything here.

[tamarack]

19 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m not sure about the wagons south thing, it’s a massive storm. There is a lot of energy flying around.

Be nice to get something even close to "massive" here.  The Christmas Eve 8.5" brought the total to nearly 4" above my average thru 12/24.  In the 26 days since we've had 9 events with accumulating snow.  Despite all that activity, we're now an inch below YTD average.  Those 9 events totaled 12.2" with none greater than 3.0", another march of the midgets like last winter post-Christmas.
Trees do look lovely, however, and the 13" pack is right on the average.

[weatherwiz]

Leaning in the direction of suppression for here but holy hell is this going to be extremely high impact across the mid South and probably even to the Gulf Coast again. If I was in say Houston I would be very concerned again for a significant ice storm...seeing the GFS as cold as it is with that boundary nearby...raises big concerns. GFS has often in the past been one of the last to catch up to the extent of llvl cold down there with these Arctic fronts 

[Kitz Craver]

It’s going to be a good battle, lots of gulf moisture and energy and really strong confluence 

[Lucy Pull]

Not worth much but seems like CMC won’t be burying the energy in the southwest this run. 

[DavisStraight]

Whether that one hits us or not it looks cold and active. We'll get something eventually.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Doesn’t help that the general public already is expecting a monster snow storm either. Weather apps idk which one are calling for 14-17” for CT. And social media is already talking about it. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Doesn’t help that the general public already is expecting a monster snow storm either. Weather apps idk which one are calling for 14-17” for CT. And social media is already talking about it. 

I had a friend send me a screen shot of this earlier saying, "wtf" 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Which app is doing that Wiz?

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Doesn’t help that the general public already is expecting a monster snow storm either. Weather apps idk which one are calling for 14-17” for CT. And social media is already talking about it. 

My phone has a casual 13-16” for Sunday.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Which app is doing that Wiz?

I'll ask him. He lives near Boston so I'm guessing its for Boston area but for Sunday, January 25 it says 15-18" for total snowfall for the day  

 

[Fozz]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Which app is doing that Wiz?

The iPhone weather app. I have no idea where they’re getting those numbers from.

It is best not to tempt normies with these speculative forecasts because they will spread it like wildfire.

[Fozz]

17 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

Not worth much but seems like CMC won’t be burying the energy in the southwest this run. 

It’s a huge jump north and scrapes SNE with advisory snows (with low end warning snows in the coastal areas) while burying DC.

Not a bad place to be 6 days out. That being said, at this point knowing everything we know up to now, I’d rather be back in MD this coming weekend than up here.

Not every big overrunning/Miller A storm shifts north enough. Many do, but some don’t.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

The iPhone weather app. I have no idea where they’re getting those numbers from.

It is best not to tempt normies with these speculative forecasts because they will spread it like wildfire.

yup...iPhone weather app. He just told me.

 

[dryslot]

Suppression season. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

cmc major snowstorm hartford to dc 10-20”

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Wait until the models pick up on the new pack.

This has suppression written all over it IMO

[Fozz]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Wait until the models pick up on the new pack.

This has suppression written all over it IMO

Maybe it does, but your recent 8” storm also had “out to sea written all over it” until the 11th hour.

[CoastalWx]

Snow pack has nothing to do with suppression. It’s all about the 500mb pattern. 

[Lucy Pull]

GEFS should be a little better than 6z.

Definitely not like the CMC but ejecting more energy out of the southwest and better orientation with the northern energy.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

cmc major snowstorm hartford to dc 10-20”

Big storm on the UKMET. Our area best spot for these (also SE Mass).

[dryslot]

Good luck getting a storm into New England with this cold west to east flow

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Good luck getting a storm into New England with this cold west to east flow

Yea, not that into next weekend.

[dryslot]

The next period for something legit is around 2/1 i think.