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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread


Baroclinic Zone
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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There was even talk of 60’s…you don’t pay attention obviously. 

50s and even 60s was discussed within the last two weeks as soon as the warm up showed on long range... similar to how those get excited for a KU 380hr out and within a week are toaster bathin when it doesn't come to fruition.

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4 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

50s and even 60s was discussed within the last two weeks as soon as the warm up showed on long range... similar to how those get excited for a KU 380hr out and within a week are toaster bathin when it doesn't come to fruition.

For sure. 

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26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There was even talk of 60’s…you don’t pay attention obviously. 

There certainly was!  It was fine to discuss the potential as long it was it was kept in the perspective of a long range modeling prediction, and not one that was a lock to happen.  And yes, 40's, 50's and even a 60 degree highs were chatted about by many folks.  Why deny it... It was discussed and now reality appears to be setting that the high end warming was way overdone...  Just another reason to take long lead modeling outcomes with many grains of salt.  Fun to chat about but taking it verbatim will often get you burned.  

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh there was plenty of talk of 50s conditional on warm sectoring. Not gonna happen now. Instead it’s mid 30s trash. 

Official recent forecasts? not talking last week's general discussions or thoughts on here, nor was kev.  Not a single outlet had 50's that I saw

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

We are about 10 weeks from 60's, 12 weeks from 70's, 15 weeks from 80's, and about 18 weeks from getting some severe weather threats 

Keep the 60’s and 70’s.   We’ll take them in April, and they’ll be nowhere to be had. You know this. 

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Normally on paper, it would look good, but it's kind of WNW flow in the mid levels and then you got the southeast Ridge That's trying to split the lower anomaies  at 500 on either side of it. That just kind of look meh to me. Based on EPS I dunno, something seems off to me. I hope I’m wrong. 

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