January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[mahk_webstah]

I’m kinda expecting one to 2 inches Monday afternoon and evening and then 2 to 4 Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. I hope those aren’t unrealistic expectations. It happens that way then the snow pack is back to being pretty nice again.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS and EURO playing around with the idea of keeping CT below 50 through both warm-ups .

Yeah that’s virtually a lock 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

37 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

And there goes the town plow for our massive 0.6” of fluff

Greenfield DPW has an unwritten rule where the plows don’t come out or anything under 2 inches.

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Greenfield DPW has an unwritten rule where the plows don’t come out or anything under 2 inches.

They have to salt or sand though right?

[ineedsnow]

4 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

My goodness, what is up with all the sick people?? My two housemates were bedbound for days last week and still have coughs that would scare away Freddy Krueger.

Hope you feel better soon man!

Solid coating here....threatening .2

thank you.. ya started a few days ago and today seems to be the crappiest so far.. of course I'm on vacation this week.. great way to start it 

[weathafella]

Surprised to see some new snow otg.  Keep the faith Kevin-you may be on a nice heater-looks like we possibly will have another muted torch.

Hey snowcrazed-I was poking fun at everyone yesterday-hope you didnt take too much offense.  Besides, recovering from a lingering cold has made me more salty than I like to be.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weathafella said:

Surprised to see some new snow otg.  Keep the faith Kevin-you may be on a nice heater-looks like we possibly will have another muted torch.

Hey snowcrazed-I was poking fun at everyone yesterday-hope you didnt take too much offense.  Besides, recovering from a lingering cold has made me more salty than I like to be.

Smoke em if you got em?

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

thank you.. ya started a few days ago and today seems to be the crappiest so far.. of course I'm on vacation this week.. great way to start it 

Everyone I know was or is sick. Terrible shit going around. Hope you get better soon.

[Snowcrazed71]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Surprised to see some new snow otg.  Keep the faith Kevin-you may be on a nice heater-looks like we possibly will have another muted torch.

Hey snowcrazed-I was poking fun at everyone yesterday-hope you didnt take too much offense.  Besides, recovering from a lingering cold has made me more salty than I like to be.

It's all good. You are right though... I used to get somewhat defensive in the past. I get you though. Feel better ( just got over a nasty one myself ). Just in time to go back to work after being out since Christmas eve!

[Snowcrazed71]

Another good write up regarding the disappearing La Nina

IT’S TIME TO SAY GOODBYE TO LA NIÑA

What this chart is showing is a series of strong westerly wind bursts across the western and central Pacific, and this is exactly the kind of atmospheric signal that I said earlier this season would start working against La Niña and help bring it to an end.

Under a typical La Niña background state, the Pacific is dominated by stronger-than-normal easterly trade winds, which drive warm water westward toward Indonesia and allow colder water to upwell across the central and eastern Pacific. That cold-water upwelling is what sustains the La Niña pattern, but this is what I believe is now beginning to change.

When we start seeing repeated westerly wind bursts like the ones highlighted here in yellow, the atmosphere essentially begins to flip the script. These westerlies weaken or oppose the trades, allowing warm water to surge eastward across the equatorial Pacific. That process triggers a downwelling Kelvin Wave beneath the surface, carrying a large pool of warmer-than-normal subsurface water toward the central and eastern Pacific. Once that warm pool begins to surface, the cold anomalies tied to La Niña lose their foundation and the pattern starts breaking down, and this is exactly what I’ve been talking about for quite some time.

This isn’t an isolated blip or noise in the data. It is a structural shift in the coupled atmosphere–ocean system. The more frequent and sustained these westerly bursts become, the harder it is for La Niña to maintain itself, and in my view, the system is now gradually transitioning toward a neutral, or potentially even a weak warm-phase background.

I’ve circled the yellow westerly wind bursts on this chart, and I want to be very clear: these winds are now observed and are happening right now. This is not a forecast. These are current, ongoing observations. In my opinion, these westerly winds should be the nail in La Niña’s coffin. I’ll go a step further. I believe that after this week, La Niña will no longer be the dominant background state in the Pacific.

What we’re seeing here is one of the classic mechanisms that brings La Niña to an end. The atmosphere is no longer reinforcing it. The atmosphere is now actively working against it, and the Pacific is already responding. There is plenty of winter still ahead, and within a week or so, you’ll begin to see that reflected in the pattern.

[WinterWolf]

This is what could have/cause February to not be a flower February.  Just what we wanted. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that’s virtually a lock 

Lol now the 12z GFS is 55-65 on Saturday, still have a while til that one locks in..

[weathafella]

Isn’t there a 3 month lag?  Meaning if La Niña ends the lingering effects would last into spring.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That was the first real snowstorm I can recall growing up. 9 yrs old when that occurred. 

March 1984 and January 1987 were no slouches...December 1981 for a lot of e MA...of course April 1982, Wolfie's fav ...

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Isn’t there a 3 month lag?  Meaning if La Niña ends the lingering effects would last into spring.

Not sure on the effects of the La Nina ending and what it means for the next couple of months. Even if it still acts as a weak La Nina, that typically bodes well for us. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This is what could have/cause February to not be a flower February.  Just what we wanted. 

I don't think so...RONI and MEI are still safely negative....GLAAM only approaches neutral next month. It's more the +TNH that will save February...a la 2014.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Next spring is when El Nino starts to drive the bus.

[Great Snow 1717]

...and in Rainthuen a whooping 1/4 of an inch of snow today...at the current pace we will reach our seasonal snowfall average in the year 2525

#RAINTHUENSTRONG

[dendrite]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Everyone I know was or is sick. Terrible shit going around. Hope you get better soon.

Wife has been sick and coughing since Xmas eve…not sure how I avoided it. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

58 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

thank you.. ya started a few days ago and today seems to be the crappiest so far.. of course I'm on vacation this week.. great way to start it 

Any vertigo/dizziness with that?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

They have to salt or sand though right?

Yeah, at least the main streets.  Secondary streets are a longer wait.
The plowing hair is generally quite good. It’s just that they wait until there’s “real snow”

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wife has been sick and coughing since Xmas eve…not sure how I avoided it. 

Same thing happened at our house. Wife was sick as a dog for a few days and the boy and I didn’t catch it. 

[ORH_wxman]

Pattern looks to be pretty favorable by mid-month now. Hopefully something pops ala 12z Euro today. 
 

Ensembles still showing a nice pattern out in the extended. There’s your +TNH pattern…basically -EPO and a near neutral to negative PNA. 
 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern looks to be pretty favorable by mid-month now. Hopefully something pops ala 12z Euro today. 
 

Ensembles still showing a nice pattern out in the extended. There’s your +TNH pattern…basically -EPO and a near neutral to negative PNA. 
 

I like it. Let’s get some juicy systems out of the SW and slam them into some cold. 

[qg_omega]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern looks to be pretty favorable by mid-month now. Hopefully something pops ala 12z Euro today. 
 

Ensembles still showing a nice pattern out in the extended. There’s your +TNH pattern…basically -EPO and a near neutral to negative PNA. 
 

PNA looks to stay negative this month

[mahk_webstah]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I like it. Let’s get some juicy systems out of the SW and slam them into some cold. 

Our mashed potatoes and gravy

[moneypitmike]

5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Neighbor leaf blower to snow this morning 

https://imgur.com/a/PEJFUpr#LqiKYDf

 

Canton police investigation?

[mahk_webstah]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern looks to be pretty favorable by mid-month now. Hopefully something pops ala 12z Euro today. 
 

Ensembles still showing a nice pattern out in the extended. There’s your +TNH pattern…basically -EPO and a near neutral to negative PNA. 
 

Good for us, but challenging New York City and south. I’m thinking. But with the strength of cold this year I think New York City gets some good outcomes.

[weathafella]

It looks favorable.  But I want to see it inside of day 10.

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern looks to be pretty favorable by mid-month now. Hopefully something pops ala 12z Euro today. 
 

Ensembles still showing a nice pattern out in the extended. There’s your +TNH pattern…basically -EPO and a near neutral to negative PNA. 
 

That is the type of pattern where you get a slew of moderate SWFEs and redevelopers...not a big dog set up with that gradient.