January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh yeah, I understand it. That’s why I posted it.

It is still irrational behavior in an objective/scientific context but I understand why people get panicky about not seeing blizzards on 300 hour OP runs. The lack of success in the KU department recently causes irrational behavior to manifest itself in that manner.
 

I also think the utter glut of storms in the 2010s also produced irrational behavior in terms of expectations. We expected every shortwave to bomb out and give us 8-12” if not something bigger….and for a while, we kept pulling the slot level and ringing up triple 7s. It’s gone the complete opposite direction now but both outcomes are unsustainable.  

Like saying 15 inches isn't memorable.  Spoiled generation

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya, I just want a bomb crawling around the benchmark and I'll take my chances.. It's always 50/50 whether or not we get the good banding or just a solid snowfall anyways.. There's just something about tracking a bombing Nor'Easter in the Northeast. 

It’s been 13yrs for this area’s last legit KU. We’ve had several close calls and several busts since then but it is time…we are owed one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Like saying 15 inches isn't memorable.  Spoiled generation

I don't know if "spoiled" is appropriate.....if you have received that amount frequently enough to be perceived as "spoiled", then it's inherently not very anomalous, so why would it be memorable?

[Damage In Tolland]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs develops a little low

We’ve been expecting that . These clippers tend to come back on models 48 hours in 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Lets gets another Nemo in here . I was just reading through the thread last night for nostalgia as I was not yet on this board.  Fun times.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Another day in the 40s with rain....hope I'm not spoiled enough to have forgotten all about this day in 2048.

[Typhoon Tip]

You get the impression the GFS' recent topography is trying to get organized around the 6-7-8  dates but its not focusing.  It's a bit early yet, yup.  For now, buck shot with S/Ws through the medium and time span.  

There's some S/W spacing at 500 mb that looks innocuous and weak 5-6, followed by a more potent amplification nearing the 7-8 period, but the stuff in the 5-6 is just enough to interfere and limit what the 7-8 can do. So you end up with a whole lot of nothing.  But that's just the operational GFS

Meanwhile, in honestly the ensemble spatial synoptic cinemas looked like shit to me from overnight. I was hoping for more from those.  Based on what could have been, when observing the erstwhile trends, no. They instead come up with this half commitment between a new -EPO, and a stressed low amplitude +PNA...  in other words, garbage pattern. It's garbage because [ no one will read it anyway ] ...

The collapse of the eastern hybrid -WPO is still high confidence spanning the first week.  The models are having difficulty coming in with a coherent new paradigm after the fact.  May need more time. If it ends up in some distorted piece of shit between two modes it's unclear a best what the f that will mean. Could be anything, but probably not winter storms because that means nothing is actually happening.  If it ends up more committed to a +PNA then we'll emerge a system E.   

I said back in early Sept:  early blocking and winter pattern followed by sputtering mid season, and then early spring.   So far, nailed the first 1/3.  We'll see where this goes. 

 

 

[MJO812]

Big dog at 240 on the cmc

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm personally very confident that the primary determining factor is in what the PNA does post the -WPO breakdown - spanning the 2-5th.  If that emerges into a western N/A ridge we're probably going to set something up that's at minimum climo - which means higher ceiling event.  If it doesn't ... we don't

[binbisso]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big dog at 240 on the cmc

Ec-ai too!

[binbisso]

We can try again few days later. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big dog at 240 on the cmc

Yea that timeframe has been showing up. Vudoo but 30yrs ago…

[Krs4Lfe]

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You get the impression the GFS' recent topography is trying to get organized around the 6-7-8  dates but its not focusing.  It's a bit early yet, yup.  For now, buck shot with S/Ws through the medium and time span.  

There's some S/W spacing at 500 mb that looks innocuous and weak 5-6, followed by a more potent amplification nearing the 7-8 period, but the stuff in the 5-6 is just enough to interfere and limit what the 7-8 can do. So you end up with a whole lot of nothing.  But that's just the operational GFS

Meanwhile, in honestly the ensemble spatial synoptic cinemas looked like shit to me from overnight. I was hoping for more from those.  Based on what could have been, when observing the erstwhile trends, no. They instead come up with this half commitment between a new -EPO, and a stressed low amplitude +PNA...  in other words, garbage pattern. It's garbage because [ no one will read it anyway ] ...

The collapse of the eastern hybrid -WPO is still high confidence spanning the first week.  The models are having difficulty coming in with a coherent new paradigm after the fact.  May need more time. If it ends up in some distorted piece of shit between two modes it's unclear a best what the f that will mean. Could be anything, but probably not winter storms because that means nothing is actually happening.  If it ends up more committed to a +PNA then we'll emerge a system E.   

I said back in early Sept:  early blocking and winter pattern followed by sputtering mid season, and then early spring.   So far, nailed the first 1/3.  We'll see where this goes. 

 

 

If we don’t see anything else by mid January, then I’d say your second call sbout mid winter is also correct. Early springs are typical with La Niña, probably no reason to not expect that with this one as well. The short range looks good for now but all it takes is for one ingredient to be off and then we punt the whole pattern. Let’s hope not 

[dendrite]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big dog at 240 on the cmc

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

If we don’t see anything else by mid January, then I’d say your second call sbout mid winter is also correct. Early springs are typical with La Niña, probably no reason to not expect that with this one as well. The short range looks good for now but all it takes is for one ingredient to be off and then we punt the whole pattern. Let’s hope not 

well... we could also pop a decent event in the next 12 days and still averaged a fubar midriff season.  haha.   I mean, even dog years can't some times find a stray in heat

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm personally very confident that the primary determining factor is in what the PNA does post the -WPO breakdown - spanning the 2-5th.  If that emerges into a western N/A ridge we're probably going to set something up that's at minimum climo - which means higher ceiling event.  If it doesn't ... we don't

I would be shocked if we don't see January average a +PNA in the mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think these balks at committal are hiccups.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know if "spoiled" is appropriate.....if you have received that amount frequently enough to be perceived as "spoiled", then it's inherently not very anomalous, so why would it be memorable?

You know the odds for a 12 inch storm and say its not anomalous for 15? Just can’t 

[Great Snow 1717]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big dog at 240 on the cmc

Sort of like saying a 2 year old is going to be a great NFL QB...

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be shocked if we don't see January average a +PNA in the mean.

yeah, honestly I'll leave that to y'all.   I do wonder where we are when that erstwhile 1/3 season-length resonant -WPO breaks down... I hunch there's a window of opportunity there for at least a transient +PNA.  That's obviously thus of unknown magnitude.  

You know what this reminds me of...   high A1C.    The body is swimming, in fact ...drowning is apropos, in high octane energy but it's can't use it.  It's like the hemisphere is a suffering Prediabetic.  There's no real comparative or metaphoric value to that, but it just leaps to mind because I'm bored with nothing else to do ... but it fits in with my Cosmos is just an analog engine in disguise.    I see circumstantial metaphors all the time.   Like, the AGW stuff?   classic hypertension. 

My mind has fun with circumstantial comparisons.   To much partying and the host body ends up polluted, their metrics go up..  On Earth?  Humanity's been on this harbor cruise party since 1780 and the IR  (Industrial Revolution)....  It's just that in geological time span, the metaphor takes a helluva lot longer.  In 2026...it is like 1.5 hours into the party cruise, and the wooziness is just kicking in.  We'll see if the idiot has the sense to come back to the dock, or if they end up on an O.D. OR at the ER

just havin' fun

[ORH_wxman]

That New years weak clipper is trying to get slightly enhanced in eastern areas. Wonder if someone can pick up a couple inches. Still just expecting a coating but 1-2 isn’t impossible. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

A few light to moderate threats before the bigger threats Day 8-15

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That New years weak clipper is trying to get slightly enhanced in eastern areas. Wonder if someone can pick up a couple inches. Still just expecting a coating but 1-2 isn’t impossible. 

yup...that's a beauty of a shortwave digging in and amplifying. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That New years weak clipper is trying to get slightly enhanced in eastern areas. Wonder if someone can pick up a couple inches. Still just expecting a coating but 1-2 isn’t impossible. 

Well hello there 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

A few light to moderate threats before the bigger threats Day 8-15

1/6 looks decent on Euro today. Moderate 3-6 type event. 

[cut]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Terrible representation IMO.

Multiple reports of 27 inches in SWCT, including the town that I lived in at the time (Norwalk) yet it shows 10 to 20.

I was in a band that had rehearsal space above the old New England brewery spot (before their big glitzy place) and they had loaders taking away snow and putting it in dump trucks. As I recall they were dumping the snow in the harbor (could be wrong on that but I think I am correct).

[Layman]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, honestly I'll leave that to y'all.   I do wonder where we are when that erstwhile 1/3 season-length resonant -WPO breaks down... I hunch there's a window of opportunity there for at least a transient +PNA.  That's obviously thus of unknown magnitude.  

You know what this reminds me of...   high A1C.    The body is swimming, in fact ...drowning is apropos, in high octane energy but it's can't use it.  It's like the hemisphere is a suffering Prediabetic.  There's no real comparative or metaphoric value to that, but it just leaps to mind because I'm bored with nothing else to do ... but it fits in with my Cosmos is just an analog engine in disguise.    I see circumstantial metaphors all the time.   Like, the AGW stuff?   classic hypertension. 

My mind has fun with circumstantial comparisons.   To much partying and the host body ends up polluted, their metrics go up..  On Earth?  Humanity's been on this harbor cruise party since 1780 and the IR  (Industrial Revolution)....  It's just that in geological time span, the metaphor takes a helluva lot longer.  In 2026...it is like 1.5 hours into the party cruise, and the wooziness is just kicking in.  We'll see if the idiot has the sense to come back to the dock, or if they end up on an O.D. OR at the ER

just havin' fun

@tunafish I think we're going to need you to run your AI translation bot on this one...

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Terrible representation IMO.

Multiple reports of 27 inches in SWCT, including the town that I lived in at the time (Norwalk) yet it shows 10 to 20.

no idea...  

i was in a conversation with Ray about how it didn't extend much N of SNE.   That much is true/shown with that.  that's where it's use stops. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That New years weak clipper is trying to get slightly enhanced in eastern areas. Wonder if someone can pick up a couple inches. Still just expecting a coating but 1-2 isn’t impossible. 

Wouldn’t be surprised if that ends up better for eastern ma in the cape. Would shock me. Could also completely fizzle to nothing 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no idea...  

i was in a conversation with Ray about how it didn't extend much N of SNE.   That much is true/shown with that.  that's where it's use stops. 

Yeah the NESIS maps are good for general coverage idea. They are often wayyyyy too conservative in the jackpot regions. The Kocin maps in the book are much better at showing those.