January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[nycwinter]

this could be one of are best winter sin a very long time..

[nycwinter]

amazing how snowman 19 all of a sudden vanished  lol..

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

this could be the best winter ever

 

[Santa Claus]

could be an all-timer for sure if these next two verify even close to what is being depicted

[Jersey_Snowhole]

14 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

amazing how snowman 19 all of a sudden vanished  lol..

He always does that when he bust very badly. 

[MANDA]

Storm total snowfall and QPF:

Click to enlarge maps.

QPF clearly over performed even the wettest guidance, in some cases by 1/2" or more depending on the location and model of choice.  The models ticking up the QPF as we got closer to the event start time was clearly on the right track though.

Quick spot checks on ratios and nothing to write home about when averaged out over the storm duration....roughly 8:1 to 12:1 along the I78-I80 corridor and east across the city and LI.  Just did a quick spot check.

I'd have to give a nod to the higher QPF totals for getting storm total snowfall to near or over the high end ranges of the forecast.  If they had been more or less as modeled in the 1 to 1.25" and taking the actual ratios into consideration storm total snowfall would have been closer to the lower end of the forecast ranges.  Just my 2 cents.

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

It could be about twice what we had yesterday. It was also on the Euro AI and GFS. And of course then there's a storm to celebrate the anniversary of the great 1978 storm. You wouldn't want to miss that one.

WX/PT

[JonClaw]

One for the Weather Porn folder.

 

[Nibor]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

16 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

this could be winter

 

 

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

He always does that when he bust very badly. 

I posted my snow total this morning 

[North and West]

Holy crap at the Euro, just wow!

Is it boner-rific?


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[Jersey_Snowhole]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I posted my snow total this morning 

And your warm winter predictions after Christmas failed again like they always do…

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Celebrating the anniversary of Feb 5-6 1978. Break out the champagne 

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2026012600/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_71.png

[tdp146]

2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Celebrating the anniversary of Feb 5-6 1978. Break out the champagne 

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2026012600/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_71.png

Somebody “mother of god” this 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Celebrating the anniversary of Feb 5-6 1978. Break out the champagne 

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2026012600/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_71.png

That's a deeper low than in 1978, but there was something like a 1040 high over Quebec in 78.  The closest thing I've seen to the winds in 78 was 12/26/2010, but we had at least twice as much snow in 78 vs 2010.  Only about 12" here in 2010.

[coastalplainsnowman]

59 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I suggest checking out the thread @Typhoon Tip started in the NE forum.  Classic signals are aligning and he’s all over it.  And has been for a few days already.
Mods - is there a way to have a thread exist in 2 forums?   I am guessing no - 

".. a very special crossover episode of American Weather"

[Nibor]

7 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

Somebody “mother of god” this 

[MJO812]

[TJW014]

7 days out and looks almost perfect. That means this will either be a cutter to the Great Lakes, or snow doesn't make it north of Richmond

[dseagull]

2 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

7 days out and looks almost perfect. That means this will either be a cutter to the Great Lakes, or snow doesn't make it north of Richmond

5.5 days

[nycwinter]

ny nj pa weather on youtube showing the storm as hitting on saturday afternoon into sunday if it does hit us this one could be a actual blizzard.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

ny nj pa weather on youtube showing the storm as hitting on saturday afternoon into sunday if it does hit us..

Timing's always an issue this far out. Sunday morning would be the brunt of it but could start as early as Saturday afternoon

[Franklin0529]

5 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

7 days out and looks almost perfect. That means this will either be a cutter to the Great Lakes, or snow doesn't make it north of Richmond

Snow moves in Saturday night. 5.5 days

[kat5hurricane]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

While it looks good, I go back to what is always said, you don’t wanna be in the good zone this far out. 

Generally I would agree but all the models have a big storm in the vicinity and the pattern supports it, plus we're not in fantasy range anymore. Also, there have been a few KU's in the past that were locked in on the models a week out. Of course plenty could still go wrong but it'll be a fun week of tracking at the very least.

[North and West]

could be an all-timer for sure if these next two verify even close to what is being depicted

Don’t you have elves to deal with?


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[North and West]

One for the Weather Porn folder.
 

.

[Stormlover74]

No thread til Wednesday please

[cleetussnow]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No thread til Wednesday please

Thread started in NE forum.  This has legs at 5.5 days.  Pattern is legit. I wonder if I can bet on Kalshi how people on this forum will be staying up for Euro runs on Thursday.  

[SI Mailman]

Thread started in NE forum.  This has legs at 5.5 days.  Pattern is legit. I wonder if I can bet on Kalshi how people on this forum will be staying up for Euro runs on Thursday.  

I’m glad the Euro comes out earlier now. No more waiting up til 1:30 AM

[jm1220]

Could it crap out-sure, but this isn’t some phantom major storm the models come up with at Day 7 or 8 that the overall pattern doesn’t support. This one has a real shot IMO.