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OBS/Totals for 12/26-27 Storm


jm1220
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23 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Nice f'in job by the NAM yesterday at go time. It nailed the jackpot zone, the 3-4" across NYC metro, 4-6 LHV, and less in NJ. It even showed the inv trof lingering into daylight hours today. 

Sure you can quibble about minor misses here and there (remember this is 3rd party estimated at 10:1)... like it had more sleet than snow overnight in NJ which slightly underestimated final totals there and SWCT might be a little low. But with snowfall forecasting, no forecast map is ever perfect. But the NAM was hands down the winner. GFS performed horribly. 

1151305177_18zNAM.thumb.png.b3fc3e77c4d03f4b7f336b31e53cacc7.png

I cry on the inside when people post calls for its summary execution.  It's still usually deadly within 24 hours, although I'll admit it doesn't seem as good as it used to be and there have been one or two spectacular fails in recent times.

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23 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

So true RJ I just didn't want to go through the whole history of decades of under measurements for one disgruntled poster. You know my history all too well.  

I've known you for almost 20 years now

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10 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It looks like officially NYC got more snow than BOS. But the greater Boston area received about the same amount of snow as the metro NYC area. It sure didn't look like that would happen 2 or 3 days ago.

It didn’t look like that with nearly all model runs even yesterday!

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Has anyone audited the Central Park measurement for this storm? Wondering if they really had 4.3 inches. This commenter claims she measured 1.8 to 2.8 just west of the Park.

 

Let's not forget,  they measure and clear the board each time measurement is made,  with how they had sleet and freezing rain, compaction was legit so if the got 4 it would likely not show 4 if any Joe smo stuck a ruler in the snow.  I maybe wrong but that's what my guess would be.  

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

That's why I told you to look out the window late last night lol. It was odd that you kept calling it over when snow had moved in. Thank goodness for the back end of the storm to at least get our area to a respectable amount, even though it was still an underperformer. 

i couldn't see it; i went out during one of the dry slots and that was it. went to bed watching the revolutionary war series, turn. kinda slow, though jamie bell is a fine actor. woke up to do my morning walk and was surprised to see i had to dig out first. and it is still snowing lightly. gonna get some photos with the christmas decorations still up, though we had to ditch the inflatables with all the wind this year; that stuff just isn't good for these parts. i do remember telling my wife that damn snow plow keeps passing by and waking me up, what gives? then i went back to sleep. 

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1 minute ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Thats how my area got close to 5..it kept snowing and piling up fast@24-25 degrees.

I'm pretty close to the Park and it's likely we've gotten an additional 0.5 since the 7AM observation.  I doubt it gets recorded at the 1PM observation.

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52 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

So at the end of the day these models are only useful inside 12 hours like the hrrr. 72 hours out it was jackpotting Baltimore 

Naive question, I'm sure, but why is it that if there are common trending scenarios that virtually every pro on here seems to correctly recognize days out, how are those not better captured in the models by now?  It feels like there's been similar discussion on certain types of storms for decades. 

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20 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Naive question, I'm sure, but why is it that if there are common trending scenarios that virtually every pro on here seems to correctly recognize days out, how are those not better captured in the models by now?  It feels like there's been similar discussion on certain types of storms for decades. 

Part of it is we all look at snow maps instead of soundings but yes the gfs and other colder models kept showing snow in areas that started as sleet and then got dry slotted 

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53 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i couldn't see it; i went out during one of the dry slots and that was it. went to bed watching the revolutionary war series, turn. kinda slow, though jamie bell is a fine actor. woke up to do my morning walk and was surprised to see i had to dig out first. and it is still snowing lightly. gonna get some photos with the christmas decorations still up, though we had to ditch the inflatables with all the wind this year; that stuff just isn't good for these parts. i do remember telling my wife that damn snow plow keeps passing by and waking me up, what gives? then i went back to sleep. 

I just got done shoveling and wow, what a job. Very difficult due to the layer of ice under the snow. I had to scrape and scrape so hard with the shovel to get it up. In some spots I had to put salt down to loosen it up before getting it up. A total of only 2 and a half inches here, but it was a very high impact due to the ice. I am going to skip my workout today because I already got it with the shoveling, lol. Hopefully the next winter storm will be all snow for our area. 

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