OBS/Totals for 12/26-27 Storm

[BxEngine]

Nam at 9 pm:

Def a stellar model 

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Nam at 9 pm:

Def a stellar model 

Handled it better than the rest

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Big snowstorms for this region do not typically move down from the northwest. This storm was/is a freak. Almost all of us bought into the models' April fools' joke in December. Our big storms generally move in from the west (miller B's) or up from the south (coastals) miller A's. With had bust written all over it but none of us bought into it. There was really never sufficient vertical velocity to produce the snow amounts we were all going for. NAM for example is a very sensitive model and should have had some at least +20-+30 vv's for us to get a sustained period of heavy snow.

WX/PT

[NJwx85]

Everyone needs to calm down. The radar should fill in and persist until 08-10z. The 00z HRRR has another 4-6” for most.

[winterwarlock]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Yup. Not just bad forecasting on amounts but timing. This has one - two hours left for Morris county

Its one of the biggest bust of the last 5 years...but people memoryhole rather than learn lessons so alas dont expect accountability

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Everyone needs to calm down. The radar should fill in and persist until 08-10z. The 00z HRRR has another 4-6” for most.

Sure if you live in Albany/ct and Long Island

[winterwarlock]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Probably just crappy snow growth caused by poor lift and the mid level warm layer. Another reason why those inflated Kuchera maps should be thrown in the trash. 

HRRR takes some of that precip in central PA and moves it east and refires it over the next few hours, snow lingers east of the city until 5-6am. Who knows how accurate it is but hope isn't over IMO for at least an advisory event in the city and parts of NJ. From West Milford to New Brunswick and east it has over 0.5" liquid still to fall after 0z and 0.7-0.8" for Suffolk. Someone out by Riverhead might see a foot. I doubt it will be here, some of these crap subsidence areas are surviving past the border. I'm hoping still to get the 7" I predicted last night. 

Well if the hrrr didnt get the initial batch right how can anyone trust it for the next several hours

[jm1220]

Just under 3", snow picking up again. It's been all snow but inconsistent intensity. Heavy for a couple minutes then a lull. 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Its one of the biggest bust of the last 5 years...but people memoryhole rather than learn lessons so alas dont expect accountability

Lol it wasn't even supposed to be a big storm. A big bust is forecast a foot plus and getting 1-2"

[richm20]

Temp in Port Wash. temp is falling out of the ceiling (23⁰) but the snow is disappointing. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

man this is depressing, i was hoping for at least 5-6 inches we got like 1 1/2 so far and it feels like it's almost done!

[Winterweatherlover]

8 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Nam at 9 pm:

Def a stellar model 

Yes the biggest problem hasn't been the sleet mixing but more so the crappy rates/ratios (I'm talking NE of CNJ). 

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Sure if you live in Albany/ct and Long Island

Apparently you don’t know geography lol

[RU848789]

As of 8:00 pm, we've had 1/3" of pure sleet that is hard and crusty and slippery as hell and should be the equivalent of about 1" of snow, mass-wise. That sleet was mostly over by about 6:30 pm and since then we've had more of a mix of snow and sleet, which is dense, but not crusty, on top of that sleet; that layer is about 3/8" right now, so officially 0.7" snow/sleet so far and we have probably 50/50 snow/sleet falling now. I sure hope we get some of that pure white snow ("twice as sweet as sugar, twice as bitter as salt" - name that tune w/o Google). My updated point/click says 2-4" and my hourly graphic says 3.0" of "snow" to come. Crossing fingers.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

Well if the hrrr didnt get the initial batch right how can anyone trust it for the next several hours

Might be totally cracked out but who knows. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Hearing lots of accident reports on social media, model discussion aside this is a pretty crazy ice storm down my me:

holding at 30/27

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Sure if you live in Albany/ct and Long Island

It has it for NYC east.

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Sure if you live in Albany/ct and Long Island

don’t you live in Nanuet you already have like 3+ inches on the ground. Just take it and run.

[Winterweatherlover]

Snowing pretty hard out right now. Probably the heaviest its been all storm.

[EasternLI]

~3" OTG still coming down pretty good here.

[Lawnguyland]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 8:00 pm, we've had 1/3" of pure sleet that is hard and crusty and slippery as hell and should be the equivalent of about 1" of snow, mass-wise. That sleet was mostly over by about 6:30 pm and since then we've had more of a mix of snow and sleet, which is dense, but not crusty, on top of that sleet; that layer is about 3/8" right now, so officially 0.7" snow/sleet so far and we have probably 50/50 snow/sleet falling now. I sure hope we get some of that pure white snow ("twice as sweet as sugar, twice as bitter as salt" - name that tune w/o Google). My updated point/click says 2-4" and my hourly graphic says 3.0" of "snow" to come. Crossing fingers.

White Lines.....blow away!

[wishcast_hater]

7.5” inches in Beekman, Dutchess County. Powder Heaven.


.

[eduggs]

38 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Congratulations to the NAM. I almost can't believe it.

We tried to warn people. But people believe what they want to believe. 

[Snowlover11]

15 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

don’t you live in Nanuet you already have like 3+ inches on the ground. Just take it and run.

I just measured 2.5”

The forecast was for 7-11” big difference and very disappointing. Look like a fool for calling out of work.

[TJW014]

Could be worse. Could be torching like the rest of the US right now. 

[binbisso]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

man this is depressing, i was hoping for at least 5-6 inches we got like 1 1/2 so far and it feels like it's almost done!

Wow I'm approaching 3" and snowing heavily. White plains obs has heavy snow the last hour 

[Islandersguy]

Snowing heavy in great neck, hope the dry slot goes away


.

[lee59]

Finally snowing hard here, temperature 24

[dmillz25]

1.25” so far

[wthrmn654]

Stacking up nicely and latest update as of a few mintues ago in there briefing is 7-11 inches and 3 inch/ per hour  rates possible.