Light Snowfall (1" - 4") on Tuesday Dec 23 For NYC Region (Discussion & Observations)

[eduggs]

This could be either a great local NWS forecast or a terrible one. With multiple days of 0.1 - 0.3" liquid model forecasts with a snow-supporting model profile across the interior... forecasting <1" of snow accumulation is ballsy. I respect the conservative approach. And there are reasons to be cautions with an unfavorable angle of precip. approach, non-uniform precip. shield, and possibly above freezing surface temperatures. But if it turns into a messy morning commute, many will be unprepared. 

[psv88]

I’m expecting nothing out here. 

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I’m expecting nothing out here. 

Maybe some light rain but other than that, nothing else. Probably a wet Dusting in NYC. QPF has been a bit bullish but I believe NWS is rightfully unimpressed  

[mikeysed]

Some towns already pre treating some road ways in north jersey. 

[Snowlover11]

3 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Some towns already pre treating some road ways in north jersey. 

You would think a blizzard is coming. My job’s parking lot looks like a truck full of table salt tipped over.

[Northof78]

All models colder/south @ 12Z and NAM with very large shift to join the others, on track for most here to get a nice 1" - 3" event. 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

All models colder/south @ 12Z and NAM with very large shift to join the others, on track for most here to get a nice 1" - 3" event. 

Problem is precip is delayed on the nam and would arrive after temps climb above freezing 

[WeatherGeek2025]

31 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I’m expecting nothing out here. 

you may squeeze an inch

[Northof78]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Problem is precip is delayed on the nam and would arrive after temps climb above freezing 

Even NAM verbatim is 1" down to TTN, with a fresh cold arimass in place, pattern always supported a nice light snowfall and all models now show that. 

[winterwx21]

I'm expecting about an inch here. It will be nice to see a couple days before Christmas. 

[snywx]

51 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This could be either a great local NWS forecast or a terrible one. With multiple days of 0.1 - 0.3" liquid model forecasts with a snow-supporting model profile across the interior... forecasting <1" of snow accumulation is ballsy. I respect the conservative approach. And there are reasons to be cautions with an unfavorable angle of precip. approach, non-uniform precip. shield, and possibly above freezing surface temperatures. But if it turns into a messy morning commute, many will be unprepared. 

All recent guidance is showing a general 3-4” for the 84 corridor. Not sure if I believe it yet. I’m still sticking with 1” or so 

[RU848789]

Further improvement on the AIFS...I think most would take this and run, especially along 95.  

[psv88]

39 minutes ago, snywx said:

All recent guidance is showing a general 3-4” for the 84 corridor. Not sure if I believe it yet. I’m still sticking with 1” or so 

i think your area will do well, as usual. 3-4" is a safe bet. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Winter weather advisory for orange and Putnam County and Western Passaic tonight. Calling for 2 to 3 inches. I'd be overjoyed if we hit the high end.

[Northof78]

NWS hiking amounts slightly, I was at 1" or less, now @ 1" - 2"...getting there. 

[donsutherland1]

Updated NWS Map:

[wthrmn654]

Trace to.0.5 is automatic expected amount area wide at the moment. More north west.  Anymore more is great. 

[wthrmn654]

Temps down to 34 already

[wthrmn654]

Forecast high:  39 high

so far temps ranging from 36.5 on my station at parents and 35.8 at my house, both of which temps are dropping.  

[NJwx85]

WWA here from 4am to 4pm. Expecting 2-3” here, a smidge less than the last storm where I had almost 5”. This is proving to be one of my snowiest Decembers in recent history. I hope we can get a KU out of this pattern before it snaps. January is looking like a torch for most of the country.

[MJO812]

Nam increased amounts along the coast

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

WWA here from 4am to 4pm. Expecting 2-3” here, a smidge less than the last storm where I had almost 5”. This is proving to be one of my snowiest Decembers in recent history. I hope we can get a KU out of this pattern before it snaps. January is looking like a torch for most of the country.

Careful predicting anything this far out. Models have been horrendous in the long range.

[binbisso]

Hrrr too

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, binbisso said:

Hrrr too

For the city this will be on colder surfaces. Different story north and west.

[snowman19]

New NWS snow map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

WWA for Rockland, Western Bergen, Northern Westchester, Eastern Passaic: 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield County. In New Jersey,
  Eastern Passaic and Western Bergen Counties. In New York, Northern
  Westchester and Rockland Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

[uofmiami]

1-2" for myself on the N Shore, I'll take it. 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

1-2" for myself on the N Shore, I'll take it. 

yea you will definitely beat me on this one. i am thinking no more than an inch here

[wishcast_hater]

40 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

WWA here from 4am to 4pm. Expecting 2-3” here, a smidge less than the last storm where I had almost 5”. This is proving to be one of my snowiest Decembers in recent history. I hope we can get a KU out of this pattern before it snaps. January is looking like a torch for most of the country.

Totally bogus. We will have up and down temps until the second week or January then looking colder after that. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

57 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

WWA here from 4am to 4pm. Expecting 2-3” here, a smidge less than the last storm where I had almost 5”. This is proving to be one of my snowiest Decembers in recent history. I hope we can get a KU out of this pattern before it snaps. January is looking like a torch for most of the country.

And two weeks ago some on here were touting the torch for Christmas week. I've found looking ahead past ten days is very unreliable and just spoils the here and now. 

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And two weeks ago some on here were touting the torch for Christmas week. I've found looking ahead past ten days is very unreliable and just spoils the here and now. 

Well to be fair, Christmas Day is still forecast to be above normal up here but by less than it looked thankfully!