12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[Chris78]

18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

What ratio should I expect?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On  .00 QPF

[CAPE]

Pretty clear trend for 4+ amounts to occur from NE MD to N DE into SNJ, maybe as far north as Philly.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Oh trust me I’m very concerned about it. I’d be less concerned if I was you just based on locations but we both could get mega screwed here. 
 

What’s funny is if things hold we’ll just be waiting for that band to form and praying for our nowcasting. Can’t really even watch it come in. 

Yeah I'm slightly concerned--in part because in ninas NS waves favor E/NE of here more, it seems...so if we saw a slow bleed that way I would not be shocked. But hopefully not

[snowfan]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hoco already brined roads 

Same in AA Co. not sure why. 

[columbiawx]

7 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Same in AA Co. not sure why. 

Road crews were working today anyway. If you wait until tomorrow, you're paying overtime. 

[mitchnick]

18z Ukie. Remains hope for N/NW crew with Rgem.

[AU74]

45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hoco already brined roads 

MoCo did too, yesterday.

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Ukie. Remains hope for N/NW crew with Rgem.

Really interesting how this has trended amount-wise....I'd just rather not have further NE ticks, lol Although I see this is more because of the Ukie being warmer.

[Terpeast]

Seems ukie/rgem/canadian have the band further nw than the gfs, and iirc euro/nam is in the middle. Hrrr ticked nw but was still closer to gfs. 

If I got it wrong, chalk it up to too many models and lack of sleep haha

[Maestrobjwa]

Now...does this qualify as a clipper, or is this just a regular "system" so to speak?

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now...does this qualify as a clipper, or is this just a regular "system" so to speak?

Acting more like a Miller B type event. System driving E/ESE into mountains then a coastal transfer of sorts. 

[Kevin Reilly]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now...does this qualify as a clipper, or is this just a regular "system" so to speak?

Clipper energy transfer to the coast lift convergence northwest of the developing low then rapidly pull away to the east-northeast.  Where the Convergence sets up before collapsing southeast and east will be the areas that get a quick 4-5”. 

[NorthArlington101]

18z EURO held - just a little drier 

[Ji]

33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z EURO held - just a little drier 

why are the 18z and 6z euros always so dry

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, AU74 said:

MoCo did too, yesterday.

They know the deathband's on the way.

[T. August]

Mannnnn… financially, I should want no snow. Sundays are generally the busiest at my shop. But I am a sick individual and would ruin my business for 2”.

[bncho]

Just now, T. August said:

Mannnnn… financially, I should want no snow. Sundays are generally the busiest at my shop. But I am a sick individual and would ruin my business for 2”.

the classic snow weenie dilemma... would you pay $500 for 2" of snow?

[T. August]

Just now, bncho said:

the classic snow weenie dilemma... would you pay $500 for 2" of snow?

Good way to look at it actually - I’d pay $2-3k.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now...does this qualify as a clipper, or is this just a regular "system" so to speak?

It's really not that important- but if you want to call it a clipper, that's fine.(not sure what a 'regular system' is exactly). It is a NS wave moving along an Arctic boundary, with some interesting mid/upper level dynamics at play. Not all 'clippers' behave the same way.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's really not that important- but if you want to call it a clipper, that's fine.(not sure what a 'regular system' is exactly). It is a NS wave moving along an Arctic boundary, with some interesting mid/upper level dynamics at play. Not all 'clippers' behave the same way.

Well yeah I know it's technically "not important" but pardon me for merely being curious--I always wonder about the little things others don't think "matter"--just my nature. And in this case...clippers have been extinct for a decade so I was just wondering if this would count as the first since then 

[nj2va]

Latest from LWX:

[mitchnick]

Latest Sref mean...it's creeping north.

[TSSN+]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Latest Sref mean...it's creeping north.

0z hrrr

[T. August]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Latest Sref mean...it's creeping north.

Weatherbell is more generous - 3” down to DC. Really juiced up.