Discussion OBS for minor to possibly moderate impact winter storm interior 4A Tue - midnight Tue 12/2/25, may bring first measurable snow-sleet to coastal areas including NYC

[gravitylover]

A headlined potential with ensuing discussion is being frowned upon? Someone needs to get over themselves... @wdragI appreciate your efforts every time I guess it doesn't matter for some but there's that one time that you step around the north side of a building, or what have you, and that unexpected patch of slipperiness bites you in the ass and you go down. Sidewalks are hard 

[psv88]

Man southern New Hampshire is going to get crushed 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Man southern New Hampshire is going to get crushed 

Nice event there and interior Massachusetts

[wdrag]

all 12z modeling including the future FV3, REGEM, NAM and HRRR slightly warmer.  not good for reaching forecast snow values unless we can get some decent snow increase rates by 18z.  

[jm1220]

Yep, starting to look like you have to get into the Catskills before you see warning type snow amounts. 

[Snowlover11]

It was nice tracking something atleast, but still a bummer.

[WeatherGeek2025]

it's interesting how bad global warming has got... 20 years ago even though we don't have the most arctic blast in place in my opinion with almost a perfect track wed get at least some mixing in the city but now that the world has warmed quite a bit we're only getting rain! i feel like this is a perfect benchmark track

[snywx]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, starting to look like you have to get into the Catskills before you see warning type snow amounts. 

I think 84 is still the marker. Even the warmer NAM is 5-7” in the area. Amounts do dramatically drop off to the SE

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it's interesting how bad global warming has got... 20 years ago even though we don't have the most arctic blast in place in my opinion with almost a perfect track wed get at least some mixing in the city but now that the world has warmed quite a bit we're only getting rain! i feel like this is a perfect benchmark track

We have a retreating high and southerly flow blasting us as the storm is coming in. Also the low is still forming in the mid levels near us and unable to wrap cold air back south in time. 

[North and West]

it's interesting how bad global warming has got... 20 years ago even though we don't have the most arctic blast in place in my opinion with almost a perfect track wed get at least some mixing in the city but now that the world has warmed quite a bit we're only getting rain! i feel like this is a perfect benchmark track

I don’t think this is a case of that. (No, I’m not denying AGW; Yes, I believe it is occurring.)

I think it’s more of a case of very early December and it just doesn’t happen that often at this time of year, especially in an enormous, concrete-heavy, oceanfront city.

Sometimes things just happen.


.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

all 12z modeling including the future FV3, REGEM, NAM and HRRR slightly warmer.  not good for reaching forecast snow values unless we can get some decent snow increase rates by 18z.  

Yes.  Based on 12Z data my 2-4" forecast is in trouble.  

Gonna let it roll and see how things unfold with 18Z guidance and update this evening if necessary.  Worried though about the 2-4" forecast.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

I don’t think this is a case of that. (No, I’m not denying AGW; Yes, I believe it is occurring.)

I think it’s more of a case of very early December and it just doesn’t happen that often at this time of year, especially in an enormous, concrete-heavy, oceanfront city.

Sometimes things just happen.


.

It would be hard any time of year for this to be snow at the coast when we have strong onshore flow to deal with as the storm comes in, maybe if we had a significantly colder leading airmass. You can see clearly how the fairly marginal cold retreats as the storm moves in. If the high could hang on we would have a chance but again the fast progressive pattern bites us. Storm is also gone before it can fully mature at the mid levels, so we don’t get a CCB to form and cold air to work back in. 

[Picard]

35 minutes ago, North and West said:

I don’t think this is a case of that. (No, I’m not denying AGW; Yes, I believe it is occurring.)

I think it’s more of a case of very early December and it just doesn’t happen that often at this time of year, especially in an enormous, concrete-heavy, oceanfront city.

Sometimes things just happen.


.

He's not wrong on the merits - it makes sense that marginal events like these would be impacted and have the r/s line be further NW than it would be in the absence of global warming.  I know it's a meteorology vs climatology argument, but there's possibly still some connection.   

Either way, I'll plan for a day of work tomorrow - and maybe still get lucky with a delayed opening.

[North and West]

He's not wrong on the merits - it makes sense that marginal events like these would be impacted and have the r/s line be further NW than it would be in the absence of global warming.  I know it's a meteorology vs climatology argument, but there's possibly still some connection.   
Either way, I'll plan for a day of work tomorrow - and maybe still get lucky with a delayed opening.

.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, snywx said:

I think 84 is still the marker. Even the warmer NAM is 5-7” in the area. Amounts do dramatically drop off to the SE

Nothing has changed in days. This was always an Orange-Sussex-Putnam snow event. As per usual, the only place that thought this was going to somehow be an I-95 corridor snowstorm were the usual suspects on twitter. If you listened to them, the I-95 corridor would have 300 inches of snow every winter

[vegan_edible]

warning posted for albany. will keep y'all updated tomorrow

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Nothing has changed in days. This was always an Orange-Sussex-Putnam snow event. As per usual, the only place that thought this was going to somehow be an I-95 corridor snowstorm were the usual suspects on twitter. If you listened to them, the I-95 corridor would have 300 inches of snow every winter

Retreating high, marginal cold, no blocking--easy call.  

[eduggs]

The 18z RRFS is a touch cooler along the rain/snow line in EPA and NNJ, which allows some of those areas to claw back a little bit of snow that was "lost" at 12z. The 18z HRRR might have been a hair cooler too. A small SE shift here at the end would be huge. But realistically this will be a nowcast situation for areas right along the boundary. The mesos being so warm at 12z was concerning. 

[lee59]

It is hard for the coast to get decent snows this early in the season. I remember  years in the past crossing over the bridges from Long Island was like going to a different world, no snow on the Island to snow and large piles of snow in parking lots

[mikeysed]

Was supposed to reach a high of 42. Never went above 39. So appears slightly under projected temps.

[MANDA]

Gotta lower my expectations for MBY....2-4" ain't gonna happen.  Now thinking along the lines of 1" with maybe a bit more if this over performs. at my elevation but not expecting much more than 1" at this point.  

 

[wishcast_hater]

Went from a Winter Storm Watch for 7"+ over to a Winter Weather Advisory for 2" - 6"

Im figuring maybe 3" if I am lucky.