First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[MarkO]

Ahhh, fk'in toaster bath for me. The 1800 NAM has got the dual lows that the Euro had. I'll be on the wet side of this one. At best, I forsee a Halloween 2011 redux. Heavy wet snow that accumulates to 3".

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

3K has Ray on the line. Jesus lol.

Let’s get him the 12k

[wx2fish]

9 minutes ago, DomNH said:

NAM cooled a hair from 12z. 

Both nams looked pretty solid for us. Hopefully hrrr is a complete toss.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Looking like just a bit too far SE and low in elevation here.  I'll take an inch or two on grassy surfaces at this point. 

[Chrisrotary12]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let’s get him the 12k

Rip my electrical grid down

[DomNH]

RRFS cooled a hair from 12z as well, for what little it's worth. Seems like the warming trend has at least stopped with the 18z mesos, other than the HRRR which is still rains to MHT. Would not want to forecast for the 495 region right now. Guessing it's a bit of a deck destroyer here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

RRFS cooled a hair from 12z as well, for what little it's worth. Seems like the warming trend has at least stopped with the 18z mesos, other than the HRRR which is still rains to MHT. Would not want to forecast for the 495 region right now. Guessing it's a bit of a deck destroyer here. 

Yep... was just coming in to dial up the d-drip   haha

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let’s get him the 12k

Scooter "ignore those maps"

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Doesn't look as impressive with the fronto band but was pleasantly surprised when I clicked northern ORH county. Despite the high DGZ that's some potent lift into it

I see -31 ubars on my sounding and  I just keep thinking last time I saw this with marginal 850 925 we snowed until rates dried up. I don't discount some surprised folks under crazy lift.

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let’s get him the 12k

Doesn't he even live right in the middle of that gray na na na-na na rub-it-in region ?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Doesn't he even live right in the middle of that gray na na na-na na rub-it-in region ?

He’s just NW of that 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s just NW of that 

Perfect!

[Typhoon Tip]

did anyone notice how i used a black snowflake there ... ha?

[kdxken]

Wasted half my day finding a coil for my snowblower. Runs great, Now southborough looks like it's going to get an inch. My apologies for ruining others snowfalls.

[mahk_webstah]

So is the basic structure of the storm that there is a coastal front associated band that Ray hopes to get, an interior band that I hope to get, and then a brief CCB that Scott and Will hope to get?

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Wasted half my day finding a coil for my snowblower. Runs great, Now southborough looks like it's going to get an inch. My apologies for ruining others snowfalls.

That's okay, I just said this morning to my other half that I forgot to start up the snow blower yesterday to make sure everything is good. And then today everything went to s***. I don't even think we'll see a trace LOL. Well if I see some flakes in the air I guess that's good enough for now.

[kdxken]

 

[moneypitmike]

41 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z nam slays this area

Congrats.  It's really close here.  I'm on the eastern edge of heavier amounts and the drop off from taint appears to be right on Route 1.  North of there 'appears' to be okay--south has a little reduction.  I'm a mile north of route 1.

[Chrisrotary12]

28 minutes ago, DomNH said:

RRFS cooled a hair from 12z as well, for what little it's worth. Seems like the warming trend has at least stopped with the 18z mesos, other than the HRRR which is still rains to MHT. Would not want to forecast for the 495 region right now. Guessing it's a bit of a deck destroyer here. 

Shotgun blasts after the sun sets tomorrow?

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Shotgun blasts after the sun sets tomorrow?

Just Jeff hunting.

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s just NW of that 

Omg snow maps. Call 5-0

[weatherwiz]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I see -31 ubars on my sounding and  I just keep thinking last time I saw this with marginal 850 925 we snowed until rates dried up. I don't discount some surprised folks under crazy lift.

If a heavy band materializes it will definitely rip...but the key is that lift is going to have to be vigorous enough to get into the DGZ and that could be a tough task given how high the DGZ is. But the problem here still is the thermal profile below the DGZ which would still promote some melting and degrading dendrites. I could see a scenario where radar is looking solid where the beam is intersecting the mid-levels of the storm, but ground truth is, "radar looks great but the flake size sucks". They won't have to worry about this in CNE though. But farther south into Mass it will be a problem. 

[kdxken]

Stein with the rain 

 

[DomNH]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Shotgun blasts after the sun sets tomorrow?

Maybe? I guess if we end up with 5-8'' of paste there could be some isolated outages here and there. Doubt it'll end up being that widespread. 

[ineedsnow]

Looks like grid gone here

[moneypitmike]

what's the best site to find soundings?  I need to figure if/how much I mix.  TIA

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Stein with the rain 

 

Sh&t... At this point I'll take a coating at the end. At least it looks like something happened and it wasn't washed away. 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Not sure I agree with that logic. 

[CoastalWx]

Reggie looks a little better for NE MA. Ends as a little snow at BOS.

[tavwtby]

I went from a borderline warning event here to possibly being skunked by warm mid-level that'll probably work up the valley, also, the WU point and click showed 6+" for almost a week now is at 5", with a WWA and a Aly forecast for possibly 3-4", which keeps getting smaller...rinse repeat last few seasons, at least it's 12/2 and we still have time to correct, maybe. Would be nice to get a phase and stall here, going to be in and out in a few hours I think. Still thinking North ORH/SNH is gonna jack here