Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[RogueWaves]

5 minutes ago, snowman33 said:

Climo wise, this time of year you'd expect these systems to cut hard and drop heavier snows across the Great Plains. I can't recall seeing a setup just like this in a long time with the antecedent trough over the Great Lakes.

Welcome to that 70's show

[migratingwx]

A wobble back south with the track on the 00z GFS so totals are a tick higher than the 18z run.

 

[Sciascia]

[migratingwx]

4 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

 

Looks like between about 10pm Saturday and 5am Sunday is when surface temps become marginal from Chicago and SE on this run 

[Geoboy645]

Definitely looks like the potential for a significant hit for the Madison metro is steadily increasing over the last day or so. Could get very interesting here, especially because we are potentially less than three days out from the snow starting to fall on Thanksgiving weekend, with all that entails for travel. Could see headlines and messaging start in earnest tomorrow because of this factor. 

[sbnwx85]

Euro nudged south. We are right back in this ballgame.

[migratingwx]

26 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Euro nudged south. We are right back in this ballgame.

Definitely! And thus, the totals ticked up decently from the 18z run. 

[migratingwx]

Like the GFS, the Euro does have some marginal surface temps from about midnight to 6am Sunday morning from Chicago south and east. Temps aloft, however, looks to remain below 0°C during the event until you get south of Kankakee and into Indiana.

At 925mb, this is the warmest frame. Air above that is solidly below 0°C.

 

 

[migratingwx]

EPS mean also went up since the 18z run.

00z vs 18z below

[Sciascia]

I’ve been sidelined from work since November 6th dealing with a lower back injury. Things are looking good that I’ll be cleared tomorrow to go back to work on 12/1.

So, of course, a potential winter storm may dump a foot right before I go back & my 20 year old Explorer is immediately put to the test. 

[Malacka11]

13 minutes ago, migratingwx said:

EPS mean also went up since the 18z run.

00z vs 18z below

Doing jah's work with these wbell posts

[KeenerWx]

Fun to track, but hard to tie any excitement locally. No real science applied to the “pessimism”, just erring on side of climo and the many fail modes favored at my specific location. 

On the other hand, lucked out on a record event earlier in the month. So perhaps the wins can continue. 

I’d be happy to just see some more snow. But as a junkie for #’s, I’m looking at the thresholds of 2”+ & 5”+. The former is just cool and gets to double digit Nov snowfall. From what I can uncover, we’ve already surpassed any reasonable verifiable record for month. The latter would mean surpassing the individual seasonal totals of ‘23/‘24 & ‘24/‘25 by end of November. Which is both silly and awesome at the same time. 

[A-L-E-K]

4.5 final call

[jlauderdal]

36 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

4.5 final call

7.5 downers grove, i-88 and finley

[Baum]

49 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

4.5 final call

That would be a great start to this cold season based on recent winters. 

[A-L-E-K]

perfect saturday mood setter to kick off the season

[King James]

I’m about a foot of snow ahead of most of you so feels like I have to just watch this one and hope someone cashes in. Even 4 inches for me would be a steal. I’ll go 3.1 inches final call.

[A-L-E-K]

2 minutes ago, King James said:

I’m about a foot of snow ahead of most of you so feels like I have to just watch this one and hope someone cashes in. Even 4 inches for me would be a steal. I’ll go 3.1 inches final call.

that was such a sick event for you

[cyclone77]

A lot of folks will be putting up their Christmas trees Fri-Sat so this will be like movie like timing for that lol.

[Baum]

20 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

A lot of folks will be putting up their Christmas trees Fri-Sat so this will be like movie like timing for that lol.

I put mine up to the Eurhthymic,’ s Green Christmas 

[jlauderdal]

9 minutes ago, Baum said:

I put mine up to the Eurhthymic,’ s Green Christmas 

I arrive Friday afternoon, moved it up a day. Saturday morning 6 am-the flakes better be flying and the green grass disappearing.  IKK can keep the freeze line there, no further north please. EURO-AI is troubling into sunday morning.

[Stevo6899]

46 minutes ago, King James said:

I’m about a foot of snow ahead of most of you so feels like I have to just watch this one and hope someone cashes in. Even 4 inches for me would be a steal. I’ll go 3.1 inches final call.

I feel like you could've omitted the first half of that first sentence lol but i see you, letting everyone know who the leader is.

[King James]

I feel like you could've omitted the first half of that first sentence lol but i see you, letting everyone know who the leader is.

Haha only mention cause I feel it would be unfair for me to comment negatively on the trends for MBY

[Stebo]

12 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I feel like you could've omitted the first half of that first sentence lol but i see you, letting everyone know who the leader is.

How often is Kankakee in the lead on snow, let the man have his flowers.

[Jackstraw]

Everyone who gets it enjoy! I'm half way to last years season total so I've got all winter to get 4 pathetic more inches lol. Seriously, this is a good start to Met Winter as long as it doesn't catch the lane right before the pins. I expect kitchen sink variety this time of year here. But this year is feeling like a doozie of a winter coming. This damn rubber band has to snap at some point 

Note: There, I jinxed myself 

[Cary67]

Consulted Jerry Taft on the ouija board. 2-4"south; 3-5" north

[ChiTownSnow]

5 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Consulted Jerry Taft on the ouija board. 2-4"south; 3-5" north

Sounds right

[Baum]

13 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Consulted Jerry Taft on the ouija board. 2-4"south; 3-5" north

Just an FYI that was his call for the 1979 Chicago Blizzard. No lie.

[nvck]

 

24hour snow at o'hare from the 00z eps. Trended up vs the prior day's 00z and 12z runs, no members w/ less than 3" now.

[Sciascia]

84hr NAM (lol) but sharing as it’s reaching range. Run ends when snow is continuing to fall.