Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[RogueWaves]

5 minutes ago, snowman33 said:

Climo wise, this time of year you'd expect these systems to cut hard and drop heavier snows across the Great Plains. I can't recall seeing a setup just like this in a long time with the antecedent trough over the Great Lakes.

Welcome to that 70's show

[migratingwx]

A wobble back south with the track on the 00z GFS so totals are a tick higher than the 18z run.

 

[Sciascia]

[migratingwx]

4 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

 

Looks like between about 10pm Saturday and 5am Sunday is when surface temps become marginal from Chicago and SE on this run 

[Geoboy645]

Definitely looks like the potential for a significant hit for the Madison metro is steadily increasing over the last day or so. Could get very interesting here, especially because we are potentially less than three days out from the snow starting to fall on Thanksgiving weekend, with all that entails for travel. Could see headlines and messaging start in earnest tomorrow because of this factor. 

[sbnwx85]

Euro nudged south. We are right back in this ballgame.

[migratingwx]

26 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Euro nudged south. We are right back in this ballgame.

Definitely! And thus, the totals ticked up decently from the 18z run. 

[migratingwx]

Like the GFS, the Euro does have some marginal surface temps from about midnight to 6am Sunday morning from Chicago south and east. Temps aloft, however, looks to remain below 0°C during the event until you get south of Kankakee and into Indiana.

At 925mb, this is the warmest frame. Air above that is solidly below 0°C.

 

 

[migratingwx]

EPS mean also went up since the 18z run.

00z vs 18z below

[Sciascia]

I’ve been sidelined from work since November 6th dealing with a lower back injury. Things are looking good that I’ll be cleared tomorrow to go back to work on 12/1.

So, of course, a potential winter storm may dump a foot right before I go back & my 20 year old Explorer is immediately put to the test. 

[Malacka11]

13 minutes ago, migratingwx said:

EPS mean also went up since the 18z run.

00z vs 18z below

Doing jah's work with these wbell posts

[KeenerWx]

Fun to track, but hard to tie any excitement locally. No real science applied to the “pessimism”, just erring on side of climo and the many fail modes favored at my specific location. 

On the other hand, lucked out on a record event earlier in the month. So perhaps the wins can continue. 

I’d be happy to just see some more snow. But as a junkie for #’s, I’m looking at the thresholds of 2”+ & 5”+. The former is just cool and gets to double digit Nov snowfall. From what I can uncover, we’ve already surpassed any reasonable verifiable record for month. The latter would mean surpassing the individual seasonal totals of ‘23/‘24 & ‘24/‘25 by end of November. Which is both silly and awesome at the same time. 

[A-L-E-K]

4.5 final call

[jlauderdal]

36 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

4.5 final call

7.5 downers grove, i-88 and finley

[Baum]

49 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

4.5 final call

That would be a great start to this cold season based on recent winters. 

[A-L-E-K]

perfect saturday mood setter to kick off the season

[King James]

I’m about a foot of snow ahead of most of you so feels like I have to just watch this one and hope someone cashes in. Even 4 inches for me would be a steal. I’ll go 3.1 inches final call.

[A-L-E-K]

2 minutes ago, King James said:

I’m about a foot of snow ahead of most of you so feels like I have to just watch this one and hope someone cashes in. Even 4 inches for me would be a steal. I’ll go 3.1 inches final call.

that was such a sick event for you

[cyclone77]

A lot of folks will be putting up their Christmas trees Fri-Sat so this will be like movie like timing for that lol.

[Baum]

20 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

A lot of folks will be putting up their Christmas trees Fri-Sat so this will be like movie like timing for that lol.

I put mine up to the Eurhthymic,’ s Green Christmas