December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[poolz1]

The end of the 06z GFS run is how I would hope to see things evolve and seems like a realistic evolution.  Not every detail of course.  Significant GL block develops, it takes several cutters and NS systems to feed the developing 50/50ish low.  Eventually, the vortex trapped under the GL block becomes the dominant low compared to the one in the GOA/west coast.  I don't see the GOA low vanishing but with ebbs and flows we get PNA spikes of varying degrees. 

[stormy]

15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What do you mean by "non-initialized warm front", exactly?

One that does not populate the weather map. A subtle over-running of warm air on the northwest flank of departing high pressure.

[paulythegun]

[clskinsfan]

[JenkinsJinkies]

So Euro caved?

[Benjamn3]

Never fails for Christmas. Lol idk why it irritates me so damn bad, I do like that millions of other peeps will be turning on the AC during dinner. Lol 

[hstorm]

I wouldn't call the 12z GFS or Canadian OP a torch for Christmas.  Haven't seen the Euro yet.  We are also still 9 days out . . .

[JenkinsJinkies]

42 minutes ago, hstorm said:

I wouldn't call the 12z GFS or Canadian OP a torch for Christmas.  Haven't seen the Euro yet.  We are also still 9 days out . . .

12z GFS has us in the 40s for Christmas.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

12z GFS has us in the 40s for Christmas.

Very acceptable. 

[Terpeast]

36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Very acceptable. 

Torch moved to boxing day. That i am fine with. Just keep xmas eve and day cooler

[87storms]

Definitely took an anomalous pattern to get December cold and snow in the east. Been record breaking warmth in the southwest (where I’m currently at for the next week or two). Usually in the upper 50s in Vegas this time of year, but it’s been close to 70 each day so far since I arrived last week. I think the Rockies are also below normal snowfall so far. I’d like to see a “normal pattern” develop in January…one in which Frederick can get a warning level snowfall from an ol’ TN Valley wave and a blocking high to the north. TBD

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Torch moved to boxing day. That i am fine with. Just keep xmas eve and day cooler

so far i have not seen anything in the models to get me excited about January. -NAO....sure but can that overcome a horrific Pacific? Where is the southern jet?

[Ji]

we dont torch but how do we get a snowstorm from this?

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

we dont torch but how do we get a snowstorm from this?

It shows you how a 500 mile difference in feature placement changes everything.  The first 2 weeks of December 2010 you can take all those features and shift them 500 miles west and that was basically the pattern.  We did not get any big or notable snows though but we were very cold.

[JenkinsJinkies]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

we dont torch but how do we get a snowstorm from this?

I mean it was advertised to be a long shot. Even in New York.

[Chris78]

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

we dont torch but how do we get a snowstorm from this?

Big storm not happening but it could still snow. Lots of our small to moderate snows you look at the h5 and think how the hell did it snow.  When the h5 looks great alot of times ground truth isn't 

[CAPE]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

we dont torch but how do we get a snowstorm from this?

Difficult, but not impossible. Most likely it would occur after a significant storm tracks well NW and pulls some transient cold southward- then a well timed wave to move along the boundary. Personally I am not very interested in tracking given the advertised upcoming pattern, but will take the occasional glance at the ens means here and there. I have plenty to do outside and mild, fair weather periods in the winter are an ideal time to get things done. No heat, no bugs, etc.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

12z GFS has us in the 40s for Christmas.

This torch clamour is silly 

[stormy]

18z NAM and ICON trend wetter for WOTBR for Thursday night.

Hopefully,  this is a trend toward more precipitation to alleviate the drought. 

[WxUSAF]

This is an interesting combo of indices: -WPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA/+EPO.  Maybe someone with better analog knowledge than I can show some examples.  I think it's one that obviously favors New England a lot more than us.  But I think it will remind us how the Pacific drives the bus for us more than the Atlantic.  It hopefully keeps Canada cold though, so if we can get the EPO or PNA back toward neutral at least, that should quickly open the door back to winter precip chances.  

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS teleconnections.

[JenkinsJinkies]

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is an interesting combo of indices: -WPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA/+EPO.  Maybe someone with better analog knowledge than I can show some examples.  I think it's one that obviously favors New England a lot more than us.  But I think it will remind us how the Pacific drives the bus for us more than the Atlantic.  It hopefully keeps Canada cold though, so if we can get the EPO or PNA back toward neutral at least, that should quickly open the door back to winter precip chances.  

The last time DCA got a comparable amount of December snow it wasn’t shut out for the remainder of the season once January rolled around.

[Eskimo Joe]

We want a neutral, or positive WPO, correct?

[T. August]

18z gfs with a 1-3” deal on Christmas

[bncho]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

We want a neutral, or positive WPO, correct?

From what I know, a major player in the cold outbreak for the first half of December was the -WPO. I would think this means we want a -WPO, but I’m not 100% sure whether that’s the case, so someone smarter can answer that.

[CAPE]

The anomalously strong Aleutian ridge(+EPO/-WPO combo)/downstream deep trough along the west coast is the thorn in our side as advertised going forward, despite indications of a negative NAO developing. A positive sign on all the extended products is a shift in the NPAC pattern with a -EPO developing towards mid Jan, which could be the mechanism to deliver colder air into the central/eastern US going forward.

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, bncho said:

From what I know, a major player in the cold outbreak for the first half of December was the -WPO. I would think this means we want a -WPO, but I’m not 100% sure whether that’s the case, so someone smarter can answer that.

Not always that simple- Depends on the orientation of the ridge/trough combo. There was positively tilted ridge and a less meridional trough underneath allowing for a somewhat flat PNA ridge beneath that.

[mattie g]

26 minutes ago, T. August said:

18z gfs with a 1-3” deal on Christmas

But I thought…

8 hours ago, paulythegun said: