December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Bob Chill]

I don't trust the CFS all that much but it looks good for Feb. -EPO, +PNA, -AO, and a sprinkle of -NAO. Active southern stream/split flow....

 

 

 

[winter_warlock]

4 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Nice!  His family and mine think I'm a nut because of my weather addiction.  They cannot fathom why'd I'd be absolutely sick and miserable if I missed a storm.  He knows me well and already warned me about getting "sick" and cancelling if a snowstorm is approaching.  

For some reason, I cannot even remember this storm.

I remember the storm only because I had to go to my brother's funeral  right before it hit

[wxdude64]

37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't trust the CFS all that much but it looks good for Feb. -EPO, +PNA, -AO, and a sprinkle of -NAO. Active southern stream/split flow....

 

 

I'd take that.

 

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

 

Left me speechless too. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Here comes another period that was supposed to be mild but took a turn to the colder side. 

 

[WxUSAF]

“Average” line cuts through our region on all 4 clusters 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

“Average” line cuts through our region on all 4 clusters 

Was just about to post this. Seems more likely we don't torch, but rather have only a brief relaxing of the cold.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS for Friday.....long shot but a few members have snow.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS for Friday.....long shot but a few members have snow.

I saw the 6z Gfs operational was showing some back end snow. The cold front is nearly neutral. Get it to go a little more negative and we have a shot.

[winter_warlock]

12 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

yeah that was a once in a 100 year storm.

 Yes it was meteorologically speaking but so far as snow goes was only about 13 inches. Was alot of sleet and zr mixed in  especially in central md

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Yes it was meteorologically speaking but so far as snow goes was only about 13 inches. Was alot of sleet and zr mixed in  especially in central md

My area actually shot up to around 60 for a couple with rain after 11" and blizzard conditions. Over hyped crap here lol. 

 

[NorthArlington101]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I saw the 6z Gfs operational was showing some back end snow. The cold front is nearly neutral. Get it to go a little more negative and we have a shot.

I just feel like those kind of events never ever ever work out for us. GEFS/GFS always shows it but never happens.

EPS/AIFS pretty much say shut the blinds for this week, which probably won't surprise anyone. Next very tiny window might be early next week before we hope something opens up around or after the holidays.

[baltosquid]

That lakes energy around the 20/21 seems like it could be the key to a quick little thump in the ensuing days. Wanna see that move souther/stronger and keep us colder. Then just make the 06z GFS progression a bit better and we can get a thump…

[mitchnick]

22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I just feel like those kind of events never ever ever work out for us. GEFS/GFS always shows it but never happens.

EPS/AIFS pretty much say shut the blinds for this week, which probably won't surprise anyone. Next very tiny window might be early next week before we hope something opens up around or after the holidays.

Can't argue that they are a long shot or anything else you said, which explains my weenie interest in hoping for something sooner than later! Lol

Idk about anyone else, but after it snows, a lot or a little, my need for the next fix is higher than when there's been nothing for an extended period.

[Bob Chill]

34 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I just feel like those kind of events never ever ever work out for us. GEFS/GFS always shows it but never happens.

EPS/AIFS pretty much say shut the blinds for this week, which probably won't surprise anyone. Next very tiny window might be early next week before we hope something opens up around or after the holidays.

Persistent trough in the goa/pacnw is a bit of a dagger here without real help from the AO. Cold fronts can sweep thru the east but storms will almost certainly track far NW of us. Hopefully it retros and the pna rises within 2 weeks or the blocking hammer drops down. Patience for now....

[Terpeast]

56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Persistent trough in the goa/pacnw is a bit of a dagger here without real help from the AO. Cold fronts can sweep thru the east but storms will almost certainly track far NW of us. Hopefully it retros and the pna rises within 2 weeks or the blocking hammer drops down. Patience for now....

Similar thoughts. We’ll probably lose the first week of Jan, but second week may get more interesting with tracking threats. 

[Silver Meteor]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

 Yes it was meteorologically speaking but so far as snow goes was only about 13 inches. Was alot of sleet and zr mixed in  especially in central md

Central Maryland yes, I lived in Germantown at the time and remember it well. After hours of heavy snow we were hit with by far the greatest thunder snow/sleet event I've ever seen in my 74 years. The wind became so fierce bare trees were swaying wildly as sleet began overpowering the snow and we were absolutely hammered with thunderclaps. It was truly a mind blowing experience, a movie ingrained in my memory. 

[rjvanals]

GFS w snow next Monday 

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

GFS w snow next Monday 

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

GFS w snow next Monday 

Yup, once again it sets us up with cold from the passage of the lakes low and sneaks in some precip to take advantage shortly thereafter. This really looks like our only long shot chance at a white Christmas if we steal the event itself and hold off enough heat so… may as well track!

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

GFS w snow next Monday 

We can't even do shit the blinds patterns properly anymore 

[WEATHER53]

Since  Thanksgiving I discussed 12/5 and then 12/21 showing up analog wise.  Also stated no true and lengthy warm up until 12/27 at earliest.  For sure we won’t stay in 20’s and 30’s every day but Christmas 60’s that were egregiously model indicated won’t happen although 40’s into 50’s  might for 2-4 days 

[Daniel Boone]

Models have really struggled this late fall/ early Winter. Carvers gap in the Tn Valley Sub brought up something that could be right. Feedback in The Pac NW.  Watch the Cycle's and check out the Runs that keep the East colder. Look at the difference in the PAC NW. 

    Also, Webb has some rather interesting Ideas as well. We , no doubt need to shake any semblance of a GOA Low as we all know but, it is possible to work around it until we do. Chill covered those. The MJO back in Ph 8 hopefully helps as well. 

[mitchnick]

Bam wx update. I'm in!

 

[Ji]

42 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Bam wx update. I'm in!

 

bam bam bam

[Herb@MAWS]

Sunday, 12/14/25 Columbia IMBY:

2.1” snow

0.28” liquid

[WxUSAF]

12z GEFS (but last few runs also) really leaning into the -NAO developing after Xmas. Bulk that up and a well timed 50/50 low can get something to pass underneath us or provide a CAD event with a low passing to our west. 

[Eskimo Joe]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z GEFS (but last few runs also) really leaning into the -NAO developing after Xmas. Bulk that up and a well timed 50/50 low can get something to pass underneath us or provide a CAD event with a low passing to our west. 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z GFS op tries to give everyone a snow, or snow to ice event on 12/23.

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like the 12z EPS tries to tank the AO by Dec 27 - 30 timeframe. Roll it back another week for the usual model delay, and meat's back on the menu in the new year.