December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, Ephesians2 said:

Might be controversial, but I'd rather have this than cold without snow 

bingo.

[anotherman]

Might be controversial, but I'd rather have this than cold without snow 

No way. It’s infuriating when it’s anomalously warm around the holidays. Makes me sick.

[pazzo83]

13 minutes ago, anotherman said:

No way. It’s infuriating when it’s anomalously warm around the holidays. Makes me sick.

most of the world's Christian population celebrates Christmas in warm weather, if you think about it.

[Terpeast]

21 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

most of the world's Christian population celebrates Christmas in warm weather, if you think about it.

Good point. When I spent a few years in Vietnam, I was surprised how ham they went with the xmas decorations everywhere. It was weird to be admiring a huge xmas tree while wiping sweat off my brows.

Anyhow back to the xmas torch - for some reason it happens around the holidays, with no apparent scientific reason behind it. But like I said, if we must torch, I’ll take it about now through the end of december. The last few times we actually had a very cold xmas, the following January (and sometimes Feb) torched. Take the torch now, and we’ll have our chances in prime climo starting around second week of Jan.

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good point. When I spent a few years in Vietnam, I was surprised how ham they went with the xmas decorations everywhere. It was weird to be admiring a huge xmas tree while wiping sweat off my brows.

Anyhow back to the xmas torch - for some reason it happens around the holidays, with no apparent scientific reason behind it. But like I said, if we must torch, I’ll take it about now through the end of december. The last few times we actually had a very cold xmas, the following January (and sometimes Feb) torched. Take the torch now, and we’ll have our chances in prime climo starting around second week of Jan.

if we can take a 10 year anniversary of the 2016 storm come January, that would be amazing.

[kgottwald]

15 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, long range isn't looking great. Really hope we don't flip to Pacific Puke for the rest of the winter after a false start.

1989-90 but warmer.

[Maestrobjwa]

12z GFS says what Christmas torch? 

[Bob Chill]

56 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good point. When I spent a few years in Vietnam, I was surprised how ham they went with the xmas decorations everywhere. It was weird to be admiring a huge xmas tree while wiping sweat off my brows.

Anyhow back to the xmas torch - for some reason it happens around the holidays, with no apparent scientific reason behind it. But like I said, if we must torch, I’ll take it about now through the end of december. The last few times we actually had a very cold xmas, the following January (and sometimes Feb) torched. Take the torch now, and we’ll have our chances in prime climo starting around second week of Jan.

It makes sense to have the pendulum swing after a persistent cold first half of Dec but unfortunately the next pattern will prob be persistent for several weeks at least and it's one that pretty much closes the door on snow chances. The closest analog is second half of Dec of 2021. Jan 2022 did produce a storm but it was a weird one. My Rockville yard loved it but it was another of a long string of small maximas and forum dividers. Not saying I expect a repeat or anything just that the trip out of the current progs has produced in the recent past. 

 

We'll see how things unfold over the next couple weeks but I'm not a big fan of a persistent GOA low with no blocking. I really don't want to see that become the winter personality. My gut says blocking will return but that's just a guess. I'm not expecting a quick flip back to deep winter based on current progs. Would likely be more of a frustrating grind through the first half of Jan. If the GOA low becomes a mainstay, posting quality and fun factor here will decline precipitously lol. 

ETA: I think I'm remembering the early Jan 2022 storm incorrectly. Does anyone have a final snow map for it? 

ETA2: I figured it out lol. It was 2 storms in a week. That's why I remembered it being really good. Rockville got just under 10" combined and areas SE got smashed. My new yard got hit good too but it was before we bought. I'll keep tracking analogs as we move forward. I don't like what I see right now but there's a case to be made for an abrupt shift after we endure the next few weeks

[Chris78]

Looking at lots of 50s and 60s for highs the back half of December if the Esembles are correct.

And possible a few days in the 70s ahead of cold fronts

[dailylurker]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Looking at lots of 50s and 60s for highs the back half of December if the Esembles are correct.

And possible a few days in the 70s ahead of cold fronts

I'm going to open my business back up. I'm offering super good deals on deck restorations and house washes!

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Looking at lots of 50s and 60s for highs the back half of December if the Esembles are correct.

And possible a few days in the 70s ahead of cold fronts

Pain. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

22 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Looking at lots of 50s and 60s for highs the back half of December if the Esembles are correct.

And possible a few days in the 70s ahead of cold fronts

From what I saw on the enso thread the most extreme anomalies are supposed to be further south and west of the east coast. So I’d be more on board with 50s.

[BristowWx]

28 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Looking at lots of 50s and 60s for highs the back half of December if the Esembles are correct.

And possible a few days in the 70s ahead of cold fronts

Nah.  It will be muted. It wants to be cold this December.  Couple more runs and the models will spit out a white Christmas.  Yes, yes ithey will. 

[Ji]

I am not convinced of this warm up

1Euro and Euro AI both have a winter threat around Christmas

[Ralph Wiggum]

OK so we get half of Dec BN then 2 weeks N/AN....thats fair.

Then if you believe the weeklies we get 1st half Jan N/AN with 2nd half N/BN.

If you told be in Sept we would have half of D/J cold and potentially active I would take that 8 days a week over a complete blowtorch all winter. When do we ever get wall to wall cold? Half of each month will suffice just fine. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I am not convinced of this warm up

1Euro and Euro AI both have a winter threat around Christmas

I asked some of the more knowledgeable people around here and this warmup does have legs. MJO moving to phase 5 being one piece of the puzzle. However it’ll be more like a week of 50s instead of a 70 degree torch.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

OK so we get half of Dec BN then 2 weeks N/AN....thats fair.

Then if you believe the weeklies we get 1st half Jan N/AN with 2nd half N/BN.

If you told be in Sept we would have half of D/J cold and potentially active I would take that 8 days a week over a complete blowtorch all winter. When do we ever get wall to wall cold? Half of each month will suffice just fine. 

We're punting weeks of prime climo temps in the hope that we reshuffle the deck. That's dicey.

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I asked some of the more knowledgeable people around here and this warmup does have legs. MJO moving to phase 5 being one piece of the puzzle. However it’ll be more like a week of 50s instead of a 70 degree torch.

where do you see MJO moving into phase 5? are you referring to the COD? 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I asked some of the more knowledgeable people around here and this warmup does have legs. MJO moving to phase 5 being one piece of the puzzle. However it’ll be more like a week of 50s instead of a 70 degree torch.

How warm isn't really the problem imo. It may be just run of the mill +3-5 departures and not really feel "warm". The issue is the longwave pattern and what it means for storms. Ensembles universally agree on a persistent -pna with low heights in the GOA and PacNW area and a positive AO/NAO combo. That pretty much kills snowstorm chances. The only path would be backdoor cold fronts/CAD and it's a stretch to get things right for a snowstorm without some kind of block. A transient 50/50 could work but that's threading the needle and most certainly not something we can track at long ranges. 

Tracking temp departures isn't something that excites me lol. I like to track snow chances exclusively and I'll need to concentrate on other hobbies for a while. I'm probably in the minority but if the upper level pattern is super hostile for snow chances, I'd prefer it to just be warm and dry lol 

[WxUSAF]

I think it’s clear now that a warmup is coming and probably average AN from the 17-18th through the Xmas week. But with abundant cold air in Canada, I think it won’t be wall to wall AN days (like we’ve had BN days the last 2 weeks), and not impossible to slip in a winter precipitation event with good timing luck.

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're punting weeks of prime climo temps in the hope that we reshuffle the deck. That's dicey.

Prime climo for the region isn’t until mid/late Jan.

[pazzo83]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Prime climo for the region isn’t until mid/late Jan.

yeah i'd say Jan 15 - Feb 15.  Similar to how July 15 - Aug 15 is the most miserable part of summer lol.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think it’s clear now that a warmup is coming and probably average AN from the 17-18th through the Xmas week. But with abundant cold air in Canada, I think it won’t be wall to wall AN days (like we’ve had BN days the last 2 weeks), and not impossible to slip in a winter precipitation event with good timing luck.

We can only hope. Upper 40s, low 50s I can stomach. I just hope we aren't stuck in days on end where our low temps are above our average highs.

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Prime climo for the region isn’t until mid/late Jan.

I'm talking about the coldest time of the year, lowest sun angle. I just loathe 60s this time of year. It's unnatural.

[Benjamn3]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We can only hope. Upper 40s, low 50s I can stomach. I just hope we aren't stuck in days on end where our low temps are above our average highs.

I'm talking about the coldest time of the year, lowest sun angle. I just loathe 60s this time of year. It's unnatural.

I certainly agree, not asking for a blizzard, just seasonal temps and to not be drinking bourbon on the porch in shorts Christmas afternoon. 2015 and 2021 live rent free in my head. Maybe it’s just me but I love snow and cold. Probably just the years of melting in the heat doing farm and blue collar work. Haha I take all the brisk air I can get. Really pulling for today’s 12z runs of the euro and GFS. 

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

I certainly agree, not asking for a blizzard, just seasonal temps and to not be drinking bourbon on the porch in shorts Christmas afternoon. 2015 and 2021 live rent free in my head. Maybe it’s just me but I love snow and cold. Probably just the years of melting in the heat doing farm and blue collar work. Haha I take all the brisk air I can get. Really pulling for today’s 12z runs of the euro and GFS. 

Those were absolutely rotten winters. Even the snowstorm that followed in January 2016 couldn't save the 2015-2016 winter.

[Weather Will]

55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think it’s clear now that a warmup is coming and probably average AN from the 17-18th through the Xmas week. But with abundant cold air in Canada, I think it won’t be wall to wall AN days (like we’ve had BN days the last 2 weeks), and not impossible to slip in a winter precipitation event with good timing luck.

I agree but when is the last time we had luck

[NorthArlington101]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

I am not convinced of this warm up

1Euro and Euro AI both have a winter threat around Christmas

CAD sloppiness is still possible in the pattern we're gonna enter, methinks. Not like cold is wiped from the continent. 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I agree but when is the last time we had luck

 

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CAD sloppiness is still possible in the pattern we're gonna enter, methinks. Not like cold is wiped from the continent. 

See late in the euro as an example. Assume we get nothing else for at least 10-14 days after Sunday, but stranger things have happened.

[poolz1]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CAD sloppiness is still possible in the pattern we're gonna enter, methinks. Not like cold is wiped from the continent. 

Exactly my thoughts.  Getting a system to take a track south of us may be asking a lot but any HP to the north should be a legit airmass. 

[Terpeast]

18 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Exactly my thoughts.  Getting a system to take a track south of us may be asking a lot but any HP to the north should be a legit airmass. 

It’s been while since we’ve seen a legit CAD setup where we get a front end thump before flip with primary lows to the NW of us. Probably because Canada was torched the last few winters iirc. Now with Canada being cold, we may have a shot at a CAD event where it’s not just a cold rain for everyone east of the Alleghenies.