December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, Ephesians2 said:

Might be controversial, but I'd rather have this than cold without snow 

bingo.

[anotherman]

Might be controversial, but I'd rather have this than cold without snow 

No way. It’s infuriating when it’s anomalously warm around the holidays. Makes me sick.

[pazzo83]

13 minutes ago, anotherman said:

No way. It’s infuriating when it’s anomalously warm around the holidays. Makes me sick.

most of the world's Christian population celebrates Christmas in warm weather, if you think about it.

[Terpeast]

21 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

most of the world's Christian population celebrates Christmas in warm weather, if you think about it.

Good point. When I spent a few years in Vietnam, I was surprised how ham they went with the xmas decorations everywhere. It was weird to be admiring a huge xmas tree while wiping sweat off my brows.

Anyhow back to the xmas torch - for some reason it happens around the holidays, with no apparent scientific reason behind it. But like I said, if we must torch, I’ll take it about now through the end of december. The last few times we actually had a very cold xmas, the following January (and sometimes Feb) torched. Take the torch now, and we’ll have our chances in prime climo starting around second week of Jan.

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good point. When I spent a few years in Vietnam, I was surprised how ham they went with the xmas decorations everywhere. It was weird to be admiring a huge xmas tree while wiping sweat off my brows.

Anyhow back to the xmas torch - for some reason it happens around the holidays, with no apparent scientific reason behind it. But like I said, if we must torch, I’ll take it about now through the end of december. The last few times we actually had a very cold xmas, the following January (and sometimes Feb) torched. Take the torch now, and we’ll have our chances in prime climo starting around second week of Jan.

if we can take a 10 year anniversary of the 2016 storm come January, that would be amazing.

[kgottwald]

15 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, long range isn't looking great. Really hope we don't flip to Pacific Puke for the rest of the winter after a false start.

1989-90 but warmer.

[Maestrobjwa]

12z GFS says what Christmas torch? 

[Bob Chill]

56 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good point. When I spent a few years in Vietnam, I was surprised how ham they went with the xmas decorations everywhere. It was weird to be admiring a huge xmas tree while wiping sweat off my brows.

Anyhow back to the xmas torch - for some reason it happens around the holidays, with no apparent scientific reason behind it. But like I said, if we must torch, I’ll take it about now through the end of december. The last few times we actually had a very cold xmas, the following January (and sometimes Feb) torched. Take the torch now, and we’ll have our chances in prime climo starting around second week of Jan.

It makes sense to have the pendulum swing after a persistent cold first half of Dec but unfortunately the next pattern will prob be persistent for several weeks at least and it's one that pretty much closes the door on snow chances. The closest analog is second half of Dec of 2021. Jan 2022 did produce a storm but it was a weird one. My Rockville yard loved it but it was another of a long string of small maximas and forum dividers. Not saying I expect a repeat or anything just that the trip out of the current progs has produced in the recent past. 

 

We'll see how things unfold over the next couple weeks but I'm not a big fan of a persistent GOA low with no blocking. I really don't want to see that become the winter personality. My gut says blocking will return but that's just a guess. I'm not expecting a quick flip back to deep winter based on current progs. Would likely be more of a frustrating grind through the first half of Jan. If the GOA low becomes a mainstay, posting quality and fun factor here will decline precipitously lol. 

ETA: I think I'm remembering the early Jan 2022 storm incorrectly. Does anyone have a final snow map for it? 

ETA2: I figured it out lol. It was 2 storms in a week. That's why I remembered it being really good. Rockville got just under 10" combined and areas SE got smashed. My new yard got hit good too but it was before we bought. I'll keep tracking analogs as we move forward. I don't like what I see right now but there's a case to be made for an abrupt shift after we endure the next few weeks

[Chris78]

Looking at lots of 50s and 60s for highs the back half of December if the Esembles are correct.

And possible a few days in the 70s ahead of cold fronts

[dailylurker]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Looking at lots of 50s and 60s for highs the back half of December if the Esembles are correct.

And possible a few days in the 70s ahead of cold fronts

I'm going to open my business back up. I'm offering super good deals on deck restorations and house washes!

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Looking at lots of 50s and 60s for highs the back half of December if the Esembles are correct.

And possible a few days in the 70s ahead of cold fronts

Pain. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

22 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Looking at lots of 50s and 60s for highs the back half of December if the Esembles are correct.

And possible a few days in the 70s ahead of cold fronts

From what I saw on the enso thread the most extreme anomalies are supposed to be further south and west of the east coast. So I’d be more on board with 50s.

[BristowWx]

28 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Looking at lots of 50s and 60s for highs the back half of December if the Esembles are correct.

And possible a few days in the 70s ahead of cold fronts

Nah.  It will be muted. It wants to be cold this December.  Couple more runs and the models will spit out a white Christmas.  Yes, yes ithey will. 

[Ji]

I am not convinced of this warm up

1Euro and Euro AI both have a winter threat around Christmas