December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

0z Euro back to back clippers

[RickinBaltimore]

6 hours ago, bncho said:

0z Euro back to back clippers

Baltimore Clippers you say?

 

[jaydreb]

Had to laugh when I saw this.  
 

[87storms]

Looks like the southern stream is going dormant again this week.  Maybe we can weasel our way into a clipper/screamer/mauler later in the week with that next shot of arctic air.

[WxUSAF]

If the MJO stays in phase 8 as predicted, I’m going to keep selling on the SE ridge trying to appear. That said, the later we get into December the more ways we can snow with near normal temps.

[Kmlwx]

Maybe of these arctic fronts can give us something like that dynamic snow squall setup from Valentine's Day 2015. That was a heck of an evening! 

I know we all want to chase legit snowstorms - but those mini dynamic ones can be 1) Very impactful and 2) Fun to nowcast in real time. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Maybe of these arctic fronts can give us something like that dynamic snow squall setup from Valentine's Day 2015. That was a heck of an evening! 

I know we all want to chase legit snowstorms - but those mini dynamic ones can be 1) Very impactful and 2) Fun to nowcast in real time. 

I remember that vividly. Have a number of pics from that day in anticipation due to some funky clouds and during the event. I think Bob Chill was in his garage enjoy I ng it if memory serves.

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I remember that vividly. Have a number of pics from that day in anticipation due to some funky clouds and during the event. I think Bob Chill was in his garage enjoy I ng it if memory serves.

I remember I was in Downtown Silver Spring having dinner and saw it start to snow. Only had to go from there to roughly MD-650 and Randolph Rd (back to the house) and it was extremely dangerous. Within about 30 minutes of getting home, the roads were all snow covered and by morning everything was SUPER icy. 

A winter containing an event like that (or two), a few few nice cold shots, and a moderate snow event or two (and if we are lucky a major one too) would be a perfect winter. But even without a MECS/BECS - a winter containing a good blend of the above (minus the major one) can be memorable....even if it isn't a 2013-2014 style wall-to-wall. 

And those types of arctic snow squalls are NOT something that the long rangers here are going to be able to spot with accuracy at range. That kind of crap is going to make itself known only once in range of things like the NAM nest etc. 

[yoda]

Yes, its the 12z ICON at the end of its run, but thats some ridiculous cold for mid December.  h5 looks silly 

Who doesn't love sub 500dm 1000-500mb thicknesses in our backyard?

[yoda]

And yes, I know it will change next run but dang.  And this is 7pm Saturday... so temperatures would continue to fall

 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I remember that vividly. Have a number of pics from that day in anticipation due to some funky clouds and during the event. I think Bob Chill was in his garage enjoy I ng it if memory serves.

 

35 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I remember I was in Downtown Silver Spring having dinner and saw it start to snow. Only had to go from there to roughly MD-650 and Randolph Rd (back to the house) and it was extremely dangerous. Within about 30 minutes of getting home, the roads were all snow covered and by morning everything was SUPER icy. 

A winter containing an event like that (or two), a few few nice cold shots, and a moderate snow event or two (and if we are lucky a major one too) would be a perfect winter. But even without a MECS/BECS - a winter containing a good blend of the above (minus the major one) can be memorable....even if it isn't a 2013-2014 style wall-to-wall. 

And those types of arctic snow squalls are NOT something that the long rangers here are going to be able to spot with accuracy at range. That kind of crap is going to make itself known only once in range of things like the NAM nest etc. 

That Valentine's Day 2015 mini-event is STILL one of my favorites!  About 2" total fell within a couple of hours as the Arctic front blew through the area in the early evening, attended by strong winds and rapidly falling temperatures.  And yeah, I remember @Bob Chill talking about watching the event occur while grilling in his garage!!  That event ushered in an amazing period of winter weather that went through early March!

Here's a shot soon after the snow ended...

[Kay]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I remember that vividly. Have a number of pics from that day in anticipation due to some funky clouds and during the event. I think Bob Chill was in his garage enjoy I ng it if memory serves.

Memorable here, too. I feel like those of us who got the goods (not everyone in the sub, we will prob be reminded shortly) reminisce about this event almost every year haha. Total whiteout. Most intense rates I've ever seen. Insane drifts from 1-2" snow. 

[LP08]

That is a pretty wild H5 at hr 180 on the gfs lol

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

That is a pretty wild H5 at hr 180 on the gfs lol

12z GFS kinda funky lol. randomly drops a foot of snow in 9 hours on central VA

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

That is a pretty wild H5 at hr 180 on the gfs lol

That window seems interesting for somebody on the EC to maybe get something a little more substantial...but that's just my amateur eyes, and seeing an X Met mention that weekend, lol

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, LP08 said:

That is a pretty wild H5 at hr 180 on the gfs lol

3 great chances on the GFS and a strikeout for MBY 

[NorthArlington101]

CMC/ICON/NAM have all at times been close for Monday. I’m still too stubborn to give up on it. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

CMC/ICON/NAM have all at times been close for Monday. I’m still too stubborn to give up on it. 

@Bob Chillgonna be above climo by December 15 while Mt @psuhoffmanand Mt @mappywait on their first inch 

[Kmlwx]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z GFS kinda funky lol. randomly drops a foot of snow in 9 hours on central VA

Inverted trough?

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

@Bob Chillgonna be above climo by December 15 while Mt @psuhoffmanand Mt @mappywait on their first inch 

Seems like they are part of a different sub-sub forum now. It’s very sad

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

3 great chances on the GFS and a strikeout for MBY 

Rather be a strike out at this range lol. As long as it’s close. 

[TSSN+]

Gfs like the cold 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Maybe of these arctic fronts can give us something like that dynamic snow squall setup from Valentine's Day 2015. That was a heck of an evening! 

I know we all want to chase legit snowstorms - but those mini dynamic ones can be 1) Very impactful and 2) Fun to nowcast in real time. 

Last winter's January 3rd snow squall was awesome. Had 2 instances of thunder snow (with lightning flashes!) as it switched from graupel to dendrites. Just wish it lasted a bit longer to get accumulations above .4 of an inch

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, bncho said:

12z GFS kinda funky lol. randomly drops a foot of snow in 9 hours on central VA

Please god lets have this somehow be right because look at this sounding

I don't know how to draw up a better one. Gets over an inch of snow per hour for six hours and a storm total of 8 inches. Would probably go down as my favorite event if it happened verbatim 

[SnowenOutThere]

To comment on the actual dynamics of next week I haven't really checked the models much as I was outside for 11 hours yesterday but looks like lots of NS vorticity flying around so models wont have a great handle on events. Either way we have the cold in place and a good upper air pattern so all we need is to get lucky. Additionally, if we get that bowling ball over us our lapse rates would be insane enough to help out any system that does form (12z GFS for example).

[dailylurker]

The thundersnow storm i had last Feb made the valentine's squall look like a flizzard. I got over an inch of snow in about 7 minutes along with intense lightning and strong wind. 

[Interstate]

3 hours ago, jaydreb said:

Had to laugh when I saw this.  
 

Yep. This is better

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I was very hesitant about this winter until I saw this! Big blowup of the warm blob!

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@Bob Chillgonna be above climo by December 15 while Mt @psuhoffmanand Mt @mappywait on their first inch 

Upper air pattern is pretty potent with the neg nao breaking down but no sign of a big storm trigger yet. Just looking at the indices makes you think an Archambault type event is I the cards but the northern stream is so busy that it's running interference on itself lol. Something compact but potent n the NS could pop imho. Blocking is quite strong over the next 5 days then things unwind for a bit. Interesting and complex period on tap. Not really a setup that "locks into" anything so it would be a mistake to marry anything in the mid/long ranges