December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

Okay this winter is getting really old really fast. The 500mb pattern is so flawed. Highs can’t lock in. Weak southern stream. The is no ridge on the west coast. Flat progressive flow. Fantasy storms disappearing. Real storms string out
Phase 8 my as$

Well we all knew regular Ji posts would be back at some point lol

[Mikeymac5306]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

Okay this winter is getting really old really fast. The 500mb pattern is so flawed. Highs can’t lock in. Weak southern stream. The is no ridge on the west coast. Flat progressive flow. Fantasy storms disappearing. Real storms string out
Phase 8 my as$

 

[winter_warlock]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

Okay this winter is getting really old really fast. The 500mb pattern is so flawed. Highs can’t lock in. Weak southern stream. The is no ridge on the west coast. Flat progressive flow. Fantasy storms disappearing. Real storms string out
Phase 8 my as$

Dude its  only November 30th!!!, relax we got a long way to go!!

[TSSN+]

Guys relax that was AI Ji 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Guys relax that was AI Ji 

That means it's more accurate!!  Trained off decades of Ji posts to respond appropriately.  The regular Ji couldn't do as well!!!  So would that make it Chat-Ji-PT????

Do we have an AI version of @WxWatcher007, the Reaper?  You can get an AI Reaping now!

[mitchnick]

Gefs literally has nothing for next weekend.

Enjoy your day JI.

[Terpeast]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs literally has nothing for next weekend.

Enjoy your day JI.

It still has something for next weekend. Low coming from the gulf moving NE. Unfor it has the same flaw as the tuesday system, high sliding off the coast too quickly

[Terpeast]

EPS has it too for next weekend… and an even stronger signal for 12/10. Not often I see something like this more than 10 days out:

[ravensrule]

34 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Mid season form

It’s all an act anyway. 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It still has something for next weekend. Low coming from the gulf moving NE. Unfor it has the same flaw as the tuesday system, high sliding off the coast too quickly

I meant snowfall.  Nada

[NorthArlington101]

AI is still a nice 2-3” for Friday. 

[frd]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

high sliding off the coast too quickly

This has been an ongoing issue for many years it seems. Believe even @bluewave posted on this a while back.  And, its even more of an issue down in these parts. Need a locked in slowly moving high not racing due East.  

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

This has been an ongoing issue for many years it seems. Believe even @bluewave posted on this a while back.  And, its even more of an issue down in these parts. Need a locked in slowly moving high not racing due East.  

He likes to attribute it to CC and west pacific warm pool and the pac jet being too strong, but while those things aren’t wrong, I attribute it to something much simpler - there is no blocking and no 50/50 low. Get those two in place, that high is staying put. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

He likes to attribute it to CC and west pacific warm pool and the pac jet being too strong, but while those things aren’t wrong, I attribute it to something much simpler - there is no blocking and no 50/50 low. Get those two in place, that high is staying put. 

I was just going to post this response lol. NAO has been mostly positive since 2011 lol. Majority of times we've had a -nao it was bootleg and not really classic. Jan 2016 was a good west based one. We wasted a few others but if you look at the #s it looks like we wasted some good ones but they really weren't that good in reality. #s don't tell the whole story. 

A good -AO (which has also been lacking) pushes the northern jet south entirely so colder air is more entrenched over a much larger part of the conus. That works too even when the nao isn't friendly. Stale air is still cold in the mids and not running away like a scalded dog.  There have been some pretty big stretches in the past with mostly +AO winters but the current one is def on the long side. Would make a huge difference to have a good 30-45 day -AO. If it was right now the current storms coming over the next week would be whiter than wetter but it's not breaking that way. Cold is running away pretty quick and it's not very deep to begin with. Dec 2013 had a big artic high that pushed way south before heading east. The cold highs over the next week or so are pretty shallow and on the move. That's dicey in January. 

 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I was just going to post this response lol. NAO has been mostly positive since 2011 lol. Majority of times we've had a -nao it was bootleg and not really classic. Jan 2016 was a good west based one. We wasted a few others but if you look at the #s it looks like we wasted some good ones but they really weren't that good in reality. #s don't tell the whole story. 

A good -AO (which has also been lacking) pushes the northern jet south entirely so colder air is more entrenched over a much larger part of the conus. That works too even when the nao isn't friendly. Stale air is still cold in the mids and not running away like a scalded dog.  There have been some pretty big stretches in the past with mostly +AO winters but the current one is def on the long side. Would make a huge difference to have a good 30-45 day -AO. If it was right now the current storms coming over the next week would be whiter than wetter but it's not breaking that way. Cold is running away pretty quick and it's not very deep to begin with. Dec 2013 had a big artic high that pushed way south before heading east. The cold highs over the next week or so are pretty shallow and on the move. That's dicey in January. 

 

The hope is the weaker PV and -QBO tips us more into -AO territory for late dec through Jan. That’s when we should get our chances. 

[NorthArlington101]

AIFS mean (which obviously has some problems, so take as you will…) for Fri/Sat

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS mean (which obviously has some problems, so take as you will…) for Fri/Sat

24hr snowfall ending 144hrs on the Eps looked like this, keeping in mind how stingy the Eps can be on individual threats.

[Chris78]

23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS mean (which obviously has some problems, so take as you will…) for Fri/Sat

It's the modern day version of the Dgez model from back in the day.

Basically a 4 day extension of the Nam.

Imagine how fun those runs were....

 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's the modern day version of the Dgez model from back in the day.

Basically a 4 day extension of the Nam.

Imagine how fun those runs were....

 

Nothing will beat the run of the Dgex in January, 2010 that showed 44" around BWI. Not because it was so bad as one would think, but because it was right thanks to the first 14 days of February!

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's the modern day version of the Dgez model from back in the day.

Basically a 4 day extension of the Nam.

Imagine how fun those runs were....

 

We got 125 inches of snow one year on the Dgez. 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I was just going to post this response lol. NAO has been mostly positive since 2011 lol. Majority of times we've had a -nao it was bootleg and not really classic. Jan 2016 was a good west based one. We wasted a few others but if you look at the #s it looks like we wasted some good ones but they really weren't that good in reality. #s don't tell the whole story. 

A good -AO (which has also been lacking) pushes the northern jet south entirely so colder air is more entrenched over a much larger part of the conus. That works too even when the nao isn't friendly. Stale air is still cold in the mids and not running away like a scalded dog.  There have been some pretty big stretches in the past with mostly +AO winters but the current one is def on the long side. Would make a huge difference to have a good 30-45 day -AO. If it was right now the current storms coming over the next week would be whiter than wetter but it's not breaking that way. Cold is running away pretty quick and it's not very deep to begin with. Dec 2013 had a big artic high that pushed way south before heading east. The cold highs over the next week or so are pretty shallow and on the move. That's dicey in January. 

 

Frustrating for sure, but I try to remind myself that ~10 days ago this upcoming week was looking like a full-on torch.  Since I personally love cold for its own sake (not just for association with snow), I'll be savoring the chilly temps and scanning the horizon nervously for signs of the inevitable late-December torch.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

He likes to attribute it to CC and west pacific warm pool and the pac jet being too strong, but while those things aren’t wrong, I attribute it to something much simpler - there is no blocking and no 50/50 low. Get those two in place, that high is staying put. 

That's exactly what's needed. I was in hopes we'd have better odds for the 50-50 this year as SST'S are somewhat more favorable around Newfoundland. Hopefully we get one setup before long. Maybe if this next round of blocking modeled comes to fruition we'll have one set up.

[T. August]

18z euro was decent for Friday - looks like a 1-3”/2-4” type thing.

[jayyy]

Man, if only we had some blocking in place for the 6-10th timeframe…


.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

looks like a -NAO to me

This is a better setup IF the EPS is right. Just a tad too far north and east

[bncho]

8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Man, if only we had some blocking in place for the 6-10th timeframe…

 looks like a -AO/NAO to me

[bncho]

There are some things to like about Dec 5-6 and there are some things not to like about Dec 5-6. The -NAO certainly helps that cold high-pressure in that location, which will promote CAD. However, as modeled, the high is weak, isn't in a great spot, and will retreat east. Therefore, we lose the CAD, hence the flip from snow/ice to ice/rain. Perhaps this will trend colder as models start to take MJO 8 into consideration. It's probably a better overall setup and we've got more things going for this than Dec 2, and there's a decent signal on the EPS. We shall wait and see.

[SnowenOutThere]

12 minutes ago, bncho said:

There are some things to like about Dec 5-6 and there are some things not to like about Dec 5-6. The -NAO certainly helps that cold high-pressure in that location, which will promote CAD. However, as modeled, the high is weak, isn't in a great spot, and will retreat east. Therefore, we lose the CAD, hence the flip from snow/ice to ice/rain. Perhaps this will trend colder as models start to take MJO 8 into consideration. It's probably a better overall setup and we've got more things going for this than Dec 2, and there's a decent signal on the EPS. We shall wait and see.

Here's my quick breakdown as a bit of practice for my upcoming atmosphere and weather test. I am going to start with the negatives before ending with the path to victory I can imagine.  I think the more notable issue is that the high appears to go from helping to hurting before the event even starts. By Friday midday the main surface high pressure is off the coast which promotes flow in from the Atlantic (which as a reminder it is still early December).

 

Additionally, we have no real mechanism for keeping any cold air in place for the layers below 700mb as the surface high is unhelpful. The upper level low and surface low are both in a position to eat away at the remaining cold wedge before precipitation even comes close to our area. Just take a look at this 925mb map. The flow is completely out of the south 12 hours before the event even begins. It should be noted our saving grace here is that the storm is weak so the winds are minimal. 

The better news is that the 850+ level is less affected by the surface high and general weak low that is "attacking" from the south. This means that the flow is firstly, not that strong; secondly, out of the southwest/westsouthwest. 

Once you get above 850mb the flow largely veers to be out of the west as there just isn't enough cyclogenesis to really distort the westerly flow. All of this said, I think that ultimately with currently modeling the event this Friday is not in a good spot. I believe this as in order to get a real plowable snowstorm we need two things to go right. 1. A stronger low pressure center in order to actually get lift into the area 2. A correspondingly stronger/more stubborn high. If we get 1. and not 2. all of the thermal issues I highlighted goes from bad to worse as the southern flow just becomes stronger. Meanwhile, if we get 2. but not 1. then we probably end up suppressing this storm. In the end it seems like another thread the needle event that just seems unlikely to get more than 1-3 inches. Disclaimer is that ofc I would be happy with 1-3 inches but this analysis is from a "how could we get a plowable storm" perspective. 

That said, I think there is room for hope as it is not impossible we get 1. and 2. to align. The 5h pattern isn't horrible after all.

There is clearly a path here. Though as it stands everything is slightly off. We have a some semblance of a 50/50, though we need it to be further southwest if we want to trap the surface high pressure in. Additionally, the shortwave out west isn't in a horrible spot. However, as it stands it seemingly gets both weakened and pulled north by the larger low pressure center over central Canada. I think the path to victory here is quite simply that the low out west doesn't get stuck. Currently, the energy enters the southwest around hour 60 then languishes there through 110 before a secondary shot of energy pulls it along. I think if we're able to have the first ball of energy keep its form and progress eastwards and the second shot of energy enters faster its honestly quite possible we manage to get a stronger, more consolidated, and further south system without as much northern stream interference. Additionally, the 50/50 would naturally be in a better spot which would help offset the WAA from a stronger storm. Thank you for listening to my Ted-Talk and if any met read this through let me know if I am gonna fail my test. 

 

TDLR: As it stands I don't think Friday looks good for anything more than 1-3 inches, however, I think the path to victory for a bigger storm is still there if the energy out west is more progressive

[87storms]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

Okay this winter is getting really old really fast. The 500mb pattern is so flawed. Highs can’t lock in. Weak southern stream. The is no ridge on the west coast. Flat progressive flow. Fantasy storms disappearing. Real storms string out
Phase 8 my as$

We are who we thought we were 

[bncho]

45 minutes ago, bncho said:

There are some things to like about Dec 5-6 and there are some things not to like about Dec 5-6. The -NAO certainly helps that cold high-pressure in that location, which will promote CAD. However, as modeled, the high is weak, isn't in a great spot, and will retreat east. Therefore, we lose the CAD, hence the flip from snow/ice to ice/rain. Perhaps this will trend colder as models start to take MJO 8 into consideration. It's probably a better overall setup and we've got more things going for this than Dec 2, and there's a decent signal on the EPS. We shall wait and see.

10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Here's my quick breakdown as a bit of practice for my upcoming atmosphere and weather test. I am going to start with the negatives before ending with the path to victory I can imagine.  I think the more notable issue is that the high appears to go from helping to hurting before the event even starts. By Friday midday the main surface high pressure is off the coast which promotes flow in from the Atlantic (which as a reminder it is still early December).

Additionally, we have no real mechanism for keeping any cold air in place for the layers below 700mb as the surface high is unhelpful. The upper level low and surface low are both in a position to eat away at the remaining cold wedge before precipitation even comes close to our area. Just take a look at this 925mb map. The flow is completely out of the south 12 hours before the event even begins. It should be noted our saving grace here is that the storm is weak so the winds are minimal. 

The better news is that the 850+ level is less affected by the surface high and general weak low that is "attacking" from the south. This means that the flow is firstly, not that strong; secondly, out of the southwest/westsouthwest. 

Once you get above 850mb the flow largely veers to be out of the west as there just isn't enough cyclogenesis to really distort the westerly flow. All of this said, I think that ultimately with currently modeling the event this Friday is not in a good spot. I believe this as in order to get a real plowable snowstorm we need two things to go right. 1. A stronger low pressure center in order to actually get lift into the area 2. A correspondingly stronger/more stubborn high. If we get 1. and not 2. all of the thermal issues I highlighted goes from bad to worse as the southern flow just becomes stronger. Meanwhile, if we get 2. but not 1. then we probably end up suppressing this storm. In the end it seems like another thread the needle event that just seems unlikely to get more than 1-3 inches. Disclaimer is that ofc I would be happy with 1-3 inches but this analysis is from a "how could we get a plowable storm" perspective. 

That said, I think there is room for hope as it is not impossible we get 1. and 2. to align. The 5h pattern isn't horrible after all.

There is clearly a path here. Though as it stands everything is slightly off. We have a some semblance of a 50/50, though we need it to be further southwest if we want to trap the surface high pressure in. Additionally, the shortwave out west isn't in a horrible spot. However, as it stands it seemingly gets both weakened and pulled north by the larger low pressure center over central Canada. I think the path to victory here is quite simply that the low out west doesn't get stuck. Currently, the energy enters the southwest around hour 60 then languishes there through 110 before a secondary shot of energy pulls it along. I think if we're able to have the first ball of energy keep its form and progress eastwards and the second shot of energy enters faster its honestly quite possible we manage to get a stronger, more consolidated, and further south system without as much northern stream interference. Additionally, the 50/50 would naturally be in a better spot which would help offset the WAA from a stronger storm. Thank you for listening to my Ted-Talk and if any met read this through let me know if I am gonna fail my test. 

 

TDLR: As it stands I don't think Friday looks good for anything more than 1-3 inches, however, I think the path to victory for a bigger storm is still there if the energy out west is more progressive

Noob vs Pro progression right there guys lol