TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Okay this winter is getting really old really fast. The 500mb pattern is so flawed. Highs can’t lock in. Weak southern stream. The is no ridge on the west coast. Flat progressive flow. Fantasy storms disappearing. Real storms string out Phase 8 my as$ Well we all knew regular Ji posts would be back at some point lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 19 minutes ago, Ji said: Okay this winter is getting really old really fast. The 500mb pattern is so flawed. Highs can’t lock in. Weak southern stream. The is no ridge on the west coast. Flat progressive flow. Fantasy storms disappearing. Real storms string out Phase 8 my as$ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 20 minutes ago, Ji said: Okay this winter is getting really old really fast. The 500mb pattern is so flawed. Highs can’t lock in. Weak southern stream. The is no ridge on the west coast. Flat progressive flow. Fantasy storms disappearing. Real storms string out Phase 8 my as$ Dude its only November 30th!!!, relax we got a long way to go!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Guys relax that was AI Ji 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Guys relax that was AI Ji That means it's more accurate!! Trained off decades of Ji posts to respond appropriately. The regular Ji couldn't do as well!!! So would that make it Chat-Ji-PT???? Do we have an AI version of @WxWatcher007, the Reaper? You can get an AI Reaping now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gefs literally has nothing for next weekend. Enjoy your day JI. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gefs literally has nothing for next weekend. Enjoy your day JI. It still has something for next weekend. Low coming from the gulf moving NE. Unfor it has the same flaw as the tuesday system, high sliding off the coast too quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago EPS has it too for next weekend… and an even stronger signal for 12/10. Not often I see something like this more than 10 days out: 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 34 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Mid season form It’s all an act anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It still has something for next weekend. Low coming from the gulf moving NE. Unfor it has the same flaw as the tuesday system, high sliding off the coast too quickly I meant snowfall. Nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago AI is still a nice 2-3” for Friday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: high sliding off the coast too quickly This has been an ongoing issue for many years it seems. Believe even @bluewave posted on this a while back. And, its even more of an issue down in these parts. Need a locked in slowly moving high not racing due East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, frd said: This has been an ongoing issue for many years it seems. Believe even @bluewave posted on this a while back. And, its even more of an issue down in these parts. Need a locked in slowly moving high not racing due East. He likes to attribute it to CC and west pacific warm pool and the pac jet being too strong, but while those things aren’t wrong, I attribute it to something much simpler - there is no blocking and no 50/50 low. Get those two in place, that high is staying put. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: He likes to attribute it to CC and west pacific warm pool and the pac jet being too strong, but while those things aren’t wrong, I attribute it to something much simpler - there is no blocking and no 50/50 low. Get those two in place, that high is staying put. I was just going to post this response lol. NAO has been mostly positive since 2011 lol. Majority of times we've had a -nao it was bootleg and not really classic. Jan 2016 was a good west based one. We wasted a few others but if you look at the #s it looks like we wasted some good ones but they really weren't that good in reality. #s don't tell the whole story. A good -AO (which has also been lacking) pushes the northern jet south entirely so colder air is more entrenched over a much larger part of the conus. That works too even when the nao isn't friendly. Stale air is still cold in the mids and not running away like a scalded dog. There have been some pretty big stretches in the past with mostly +AO winters but the current one is def on the long side. Would make a huge difference to have a good 30-45 day -AO. If it was right now the current storms coming over the next week would be whiter than wetter but it's not breaking that way. Cold is running away pretty quick and it's not very deep to begin with. Dec 2013 had a big artic high that pushed way south before heading east. The cold highs over the next week or so are pretty shallow and on the move. That's dicey in January. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 45 minutes ago Share Posted 45 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I was just going to post this response lol. NAO has been mostly positive since 2011 lol. Majority of times we've had a -nao it was bootleg and not really classic. Jan 2016 was a good west based one. We wasted a few others but if you look at the #s it looks like we wasted some good ones but they really weren't that good in reality. #s don't tell the whole story. A good -AO (which has also been lacking) pushes the northern jet south entirely so colder air is more entrenched over a much larger part of the conus. That works too even when the nao isn't friendly. Stale air is still cold in the mids and not running away like a scalded dog. There have been some pretty big stretches in the past with mostly +AO winters but the current one is def on the long side. Would make a huge difference to have a good 30-45 day -AO. If it was right now the current storms coming over the next week would be whiter than wetter but it's not breaking that way. Cold is running away pretty quick and it's not very deep to begin with. Dec 2013 had a big artic high that pushed way south before heading east. The cold highs over the next week or so are pretty shallow and on the move. That's dicey in January. The hope is the weaker PV and -QBO tips us more into -AO territory for late dec through Jan. That’s when we should get our chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 40 minutes ago Share Posted 40 minutes ago AIFS mean (which obviously has some problems, so take as you will…) for Fri/Sat 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 23 minutes ago Share Posted 23 minutes ago 16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: AIFS mean (which obviously has some problems, so take as you will…) for Fri/Sat 24hr snowfall ending 144hrs on the Eps looked like this, keeping in mind how stingy the Eps can be on individual threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted 15 minutes ago Share Posted 15 minutes ago 23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: AIFS mean (which obviously has some problems, so take as you will…) for Fri/Sat It's the modern day version of the Dgez model from back in the day. Basically a 4 day extension of the Nam. Imagine how fun those runs were.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 9 minutes ago Share Posted 9 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's the modern day version of the Dgez model from back in the day. Basically a 4 day extension of the Nam. Imagine how fun those runs were.... Nothing will beat the run of the Dgex in January, 2010 that showed 44" around BWI. Not because it was so bad as one would think, but because it was right thanks to the first 14 days of February! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 8 minutes ago Share Posted 8 minutes ago 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's the modern day version of the Dgez model from back in the day. Basically a 4 day extension of the Nam. Imagine how fun those runs were.... We got 125 inches of snow one year on the Dgez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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