December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

Okay this winter is getting really old really fast. The 500mb pattern is so flawed. Highs can’t lock in. Weak southern stream. The is no ridge on the west coast. Flat progressive flow. Fantasy storms disappearing. Real storms string out
Phase 8 my as$

Well we all knew regular Ji posts would be back at some point lol

[Mikeymac5306]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

Okay this winter is getting really old really fast. The 500mb pattern is so flawed. Highs can’t lock in. Weak southern stream. The is no ridge on the west coast. Flat progressive flow. Fantasy storms disappearing. Real storms string out
Phase 8 my as$

 

[winter_warlock]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

Okay this winter is getting really old really fast. The 500mb pattern is so flawed. Highs can’t lock in. Weak southern stream. The is no ridge on the west coast. Flat progressive flow. Fantasy storms disappearing. Real storms string out
Phase 8 my as$

Dude its  only November 30th!!!, relax we got a long way to go!!

[TSSN+]

Guys relax that was AI Ji 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Guys relax that was AI Ji 

That means it's more accurate!!  Trained off decades of Ji posts to respond appropriately.  The regular Ji couldn't do as well!!!  So would that make it Chat-Ji-PT????

Do we have an AI version of @WxWatcher007, the Reaper?  You can get an AI Reaping now!

[mitchnick]

Gefs literally has nothing for next weekend.

Enjoy your day JI.

[Terpeast]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs literally has nothing for next weekend.

Enjoy your day JI.

It still has something for next weekend. Low coming from the gulf moving NE. Unfor it has the same flaw as the tuesday system, high sliding off the coast too quickly

[Terpeast]

EPS has it too for next weekend… and an even stronger signal for 12/10. Not often I see something like this more than 10 days out:

[ravensrule]

34 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Mid season form

It’s all an act anyway. 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It still has something for next weekend. Low coming from the gulf moving NE. Unfor it has the same flaw as the tuesday system, high sliding off the coast too quickly

I meant snowfall.  Nada

[NorthArlington101]

AI is still a nice 2-3” for Friday. 

[frd]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

high sliding off the coast too quickly

This has been an ongoing issue for many years it seems. Believe even @bluewave posted on this a while back.  And, its even more of an issue down in these parts. Need a locked in slowly moving high not racing due East.  

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

This has been an ongoing issue for many years it seems. Believe even @bluewave posted on this a while back.  And, its even more of an issue down in these parts. Need a locked in slowly moving high not racing due East.  

He likes to attribute it to CC and west pacific warm pool and the pac jet being too strong, but while those things aren’t wrong, I attribute it to something much simpler - there is no blocking and no 50/50 low. Get those two in place, that high is staying put. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

He likes to attribute it to CC and west pacific warm pool and the pac jet being too strong, but while those things aren’t wrong, I attribute it to something much simpler - there is no blocking and no 50/50 low. Get those two in place, that high is staying put. 

I was just going to post this response lol. NAO has been mostly positive since 2011 lol. Majority of times we've had a -nao it was bootleg and not really classic. Jan 2016 was a good west based one. We wasted a few others but if you look at the #s it looks like we wasted some good ones but they really weren't that good in reality. #s don't tell the whole story. 

A good -AO (which has also been lacking) pushes the northern jet south entirely so colder air is more entrenched over a much larger part of the conus. That works too even when the nao isn't friendly. Stale air is still cold in the mids and not running away like a scalded dog.  There have been some pretty big stretches in the past with mostly +AO winters but the current one is def on the long side. Would make a huge difference to have a good 30-45 day -AO. If it was right now the current storms coming over the next week would be whiter than wetter but it's not breaking that way. Cold is running away pretty quick and it's not very deep to begin with. Dec 2013 had a big artic high that pushed way south before heading east. The cold highs over the next week or so are pretty shallow and on the move. That's dicey in January. 

 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I was just going to post this response lol. NAO has been mostly positive since 2011 lol. Majority of times we've had a -nao it was bootleg and not really classic. Jan 2016 was a good west based one. We wasted a few others but if you look at the #s it looks like we wasted some good ones but they really weren't that good in reality. #s don't tell the whole story. 

A good -AO (which has also been lacking) pushes the northern jet south entirely so colder air is more entrenched over a much larger part of the conus. That works too even when the nao isn't friendly. Stale air is still cold in the mids and not running away like a scalded dog.  There have been some pretty big stretches in the past with mostly +AO winters but the current one is def on the long side. Would make a huge difference to have a good 30-45 day -AO. If it was right now the current storms coming over the next week would be whiter than wetter but it's not breaking that way. Cold is running away pretty quick and it's not very deep to begin with. Dec 2013 had a big artic high that pushed way south before heading east. The cold highs over the next week or so are pretty shallow and on the move. That's dicey in January. 

 

The hope is the weaker PV and -QBO tips us more into -AO territory for late dec through Jan. That’s when we should get our chances. 

[NorthArlington101]

AIFS mean (which obviously has some problems, so take as you will…) for Fri/Sat