December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

Low of 9, high of 19.

[WinterWolf]

The cold has been no joke..the real deal. Very nice. And a lot of us will be above average snowfall after this storm for December. Not too shabby. 

[ORH_wxman]

00z GFS trying to redevelop a little clipper to out south for New Years. Would be a nice little advisory type event. Well see if other guidance starts latching on. 18z euro was kind of close but not quite able to turn that vort around the base of trough. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z GFS trying to redevelop a little clipper to out south for New Years. Would be a nice little advisory type event. Well see if other guidance starts latching on. 18z euro was kind of close but not quite able to turn that vort around the base of trough. 

NYE, or day Will? 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

NYE, or day Will? 

As currently shown it is NY day into that evening. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

As currently shown it is NY day into that evening. 

Thank you.

6 days away…but at least there’s a shot. We watch. 

 

[ineedsnow]

6z GFS is one storm after another

[moneypitmike]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z GFS is one storm after another

We hope.   Let's get this rainer out of the way first.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro has snow NYD

[mahk_webstah]

30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z GFS is one storm after another

Can you say more?

[Baroclinic Zone]

January thread have been give

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Another big wind day on Tuesday with 50+ possible in some spots under strong CAA and mixing 

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

We hope.   Let's get this rainer out of the way first.

Hopefully it isn't much,  and looks to be pretty quick through here. I'd expect to keep at least some of what fell last night. Certainly doesn't look like the last pack eraser

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Can you say more?

It shows systems on the 1st / 2nd, 5th and the 9th. Plenty to track right now

[Typhoon Tip]

the indexes are loading the 7th thru the 12th of January, which is well matched with both experience based, as well as recent a-priori on pattern modulation

In terms of standard confidence for this range?  above normal for +PNA related event(s)  

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the indexes are loading the 7th thru the 12th of January, which is well matched with both experience based, as well as recent a-priori on pattern modulation

In terms of standard confidence for this range?  above normal for +PNA related event(s)  

That's a common snowy time frame too. 

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/2004918963705200751?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

https://x.com/danbury_wx/status/2004922771298451943?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/2004918963705200751?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I hope we get warm enough to get the ice out of the trees before the next blast of CAA. A couple hours at 40° would do it.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I hope we get warm enough to get the ice out of the trees before the next blast of CAA. A couple hours at 40° would do it.

I wish we lived there 

[MJO812]

Webbie thinks suppression is coming 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Webbie thinks suppression is coming 

Hard to say.  The GEFS really looks nothing like the EPS/GEPS.  I think at some point after 1/12-1/15 we go into a pattern than might be more suppression risk but not sure before that.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Webbie thinks suppression is coming 

He was touting warmest Jan ever or something like that? lol.

[MJO812]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

He was touting warmest Jan ever or something like that? lol.

Yes he was 

[ineedsnow]

12z HRRR went wild with ice here.. even half would be fun .. GFS also came in colder at 12z 

[ineedsnow]

HRRR was still going after that.. woah

[ineedsnow]

15z RAP also really cold only difference is less precip compared to the HRRR. hmmm

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Webbie thinks suppression is coming 

Never been a fan of this guy. He usually is very warm biased, and had mentioned that for January, now he's on the suppression wagon LOL. Just don't like his forecasting. He's not consistent

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Never been a fan of this guy. He usually is very warm biased, and had mentioned that for January, now he's on the suppression wagon LOL. Just don't like his forecasting. He's not consistent

He’s cocky too. He’s gone after me for a few things and I just LOL’d.

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

He’s cocky too. He’s gone after me for a few things and I just LOL’d.

Yes, he does get upset when someone comes at him. But imagine having so many people coming at you all the time, you're bound to have a snapback. I've actually messaged him a couple times and told him don't let the comments get to you. 

Hey, I was the same way on our blog here. I would get defensive or try to defend myself or other people ( If you remember ). I've pretty much Stopped doing that because I realize people are going to do what they're going to do, and I can't control what people say or do. Anyway, I still respect him and like what he has to say. Just my thoughts

[Ginx snewx]

HRRR likes ice BDL