December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually a decent illustration of how mild it will get if we don’t get good blocking. 

I'd like to underscore this sentiment here

This cold over last 4 to 6 weeks,  folks are being victimized by an unusual front performing temperature result. How?  It's falsely elevating expectations. As an aside, while that was happening ... the footprint of the actual circulation mode ( blocking over top compression at 40 N) never was that good for actual storm growth.   But the cold just kept refilling.  It started with west oriented -NAO about 5 weeks back.  That faded while almost seamlessly, perhaps a retrograde even, the -EPO arrived...

Truth is, Will's spectacularly correct in this idea above.   When the cold spigot shuts off, there is a reality about the world we live in that we've only had a hiatus from do to that obscuring above.  It'd go the other direction at least to climate thaw range, but most likely, that range + a synergistic value. One that is ...  mm something that people want to fight about rather than think about so I won't bother. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Those runs were fairly mild though. I’m going to pretend 12z didn’t happen. It’s definitely volatile.

Pretty clear break on Atlantic blocking from yesterday/last night on longer range ensembles (esp EPS....GEFS weren't quite as different). That's really the crux of it in the D9-15 range right now. If we get good blocking in the Atlantic, we'll probably be on the cold side of the boundary enough to get some events. If not, then we're gonna torch for a week in the means. 

The one good constant though is we tend to keep reloading the -WPO anytime it starts to wane, so that alone will probably help us not endure weeks long torches. The cold is always not far away when you have that healthy -WPO. 

[Typhoon Tip]

... but, that's if x-y-z. 

For now, the NAO has to be stamped down. I don't trust the 12z removal any more than huge balm.  We've been doing this for a week with that aspect and it's still not very confident or clear where total Pacific --> N/A relay --> NAO domain is going to orient.   Comical.  We could be 32 or close to 70 depending 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty clear break on Atlantic blocking from yesterday/last night on longer range ensembles (esp EPS....GEFS weren't quite as different). That's really the crux of it in the D9-15 range right now. If we get good blocking in the Atlantic, we'll probably be on the cold side of the boundary enough to get some events. If not, then we're gonna torch for a week in the means. 

The one good constant though is we tend to keep reloading the -WPO anytime it starts to wane, so that alone will probably help us not endure weeks long torches. The cold is always not far away when you have that healthy -WPO. 

Clear break in that todays showed more, or less blocking Will? 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Clear break in that todays showed more, or less blocking Will? 

I’m not Will but it was a big deviation from the blocking that models showed yesterday and last night. Wouldn’t react yet, but hope it comes back at 00z. Recall the op runs last night showing snow in NC lol.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Clear break in that todays showed more, or less blocking Will? 

Less blocking today which is why the runs were warmer in the aggregate....which makes sense. If we see less blocking, we're gonna be pretty warm after Christmas. 

[weatherwiz]

RRFS has some big gusts tomorrow too 

[dryslot]

Over the last few days been some pretty big gust in here ha ha.

[metagraphica]

43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Less blocking today which is why the runs were warmer in the aggregate....which makes sense. If we see less blocking, we're gonna be pretty warm after Christmas. 

Delayed but not denied?  Or is this just more of the same from the models showing a big warm up in the extended range only to keep pushing it further out as they have been doing since early fall?

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, metagraphica said:

Delayed but not denied?  Or is this just more of the same from the models showing a big warm up in the extended range only to keep pushing it further out as they have been doing since early fall?

I think the ridge over the central US is just too powerful and at some point the negative PNA will force storms into the West Coast, causing the ridge to roll over into the east. By then ,the ridge will be less powerful but still give us above normal temperatures and dryer conditions

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Those gust maps from the 3k/HRRR on COD are usually a little more conservative than some of those gust products and they’re both pretty big down in SNE tomorrow. A lot of 60kt+.

thats what we like to hear! 

[ineedsnow]

18z ICON has snow now on 12/23

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Those gust maps from the 3k/HRRR on COD are usually a little more conservative than some of those gust products and they’re both pretty big down in SNE tomorrow. A lot of 60kt+.

Jesus

 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s around. But in his defense, the NWS is really getting hosed. It’s a tough situation for all of them and I’ll just leave it at that. 

Always tough to get blamed for someone else's actions.  I enjoy both his AFD's and his posts here.

[ineedsnow]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jesus

 

It will be meh as usual

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jesus

 

Hard to take those numbers seriously…I’ll believe that when I see it.  

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z ICON has snow now on 12/23

Well we’ve all been focusing on this one for several days. Advisory event .

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

It will be meh as usual

These southerly events almost always overperform in winter as Mets have stated. Not that there’ll be 70+.. but a good amount of 60+ will happen 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well we’ve all been focusing on this one for several days. Advisory event .

Rain on Christmas lol.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

These southerly events almost always overperform in winter as Mets have stated. Not that there’ll be 70+.. but a good amount of 60+ will happen 

What? They always underperform relative to clown maps. But this one may have a little daytime heating help. Otherwise meh.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Rain on Christmas lol.

Huh? You talking about the blip run?

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What? They always underperform relative to clown maps. But this one may have a little daytime heating help. Otherwise meh.

As @jconsorand @dendriteposted today..  The typically conservative hi res models showing such big numbers should be noted 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Rain on Christmas lol.

We just can’t escape him.

[SouthCoastMA]

Well we can bury our heads in the sand but would be nice if the OPs start looking a bit more promising around the 24-27th period. 

[weathafella]

Hard to have any idea which side of the boundary we’ll be on.  I don’t ever recall such volatility in the guidance.  

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Well we can bury our heads in the sand but would be nice if the OPs start looking a bit more promising around the 24-27th period. 

I mean, they looked good last night, lol. They didn’t look good today. We’ll see what tonight/tomorrow brings. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Why does anyone care what op runs show past day 3-5?

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We just can’t escape him.

7 days out…op runs…might as well be a month out.  This morning the runs looked great. 12z not so much. Gonna waffle…especially in this type of set up. Gonna be all over the place the next few days. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Why does anyone care what op runs show past day 3-5?

Well you know, we gotta have the stoking of the fire. And then the nellies chime in etc etc…it’s how it goes around here unfortunately. Xmas is a week out, but yet we have folks telling us what it’s gonna do on Xmas already.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Well you know, we gotta have the stoking of the fire. And then the nellies chime in etc etc…it’s how it goes around here unfortunately. Xmas is a week out, but yet we have folks telling us what it’s gonna do on Xmas already.  

It’s like no one is allowed to enjoy the potential snow Tuesday because an op run shows a day of 38 rain on the 26th. Wild