December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[SouthCoastMA]

pretty boring GFS op run

[ORH_wxman]

Canadian tries to get some light snow in here 12/23 into 12/24 overnight. It has a bit of a more substantial system for 12/26. 
 

[weathafella]

AI GFS is better.  However the more suppressed look of the op run is probably a good sign.

[tamarack]

41 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

MVL here is up to 37F and warmest of the month.

-10.1 in December through this point and today might threaten to be the first day to average above normal.

-9.6 thru yesterday, would need +10 rest of month to avoid finishing BN.  12/3 was -0.1, essentially average, so technically today is the 1st AN.  Had a high of 34 on 12/1 so we'll see if that gets eclipsed as well.
 

That was one my one great event...I had 16", but my mom in Wilmington had like 20".

2020-21, the winter in which several NNJ sites had more snow in February than the snowy foothills had for the entire snow season.  

[weathafella]

Let’s hope uncle is drunk today….

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty meager.

Yeah it's all we got right now. Just need to keep the signal and hope we juice up as we get closer in time. At least it seems like the blowtorches for Christmas and Christmas Eve are being held at bay as we close in. 

[Great Snow 1717]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You've hinted pretty well at the two primary reasons I've suspect since September this may be an early loaded winter, followed by some struggles.  

I thought at the time an early spring, too.    I sort of sarcastically mused, 'flower February' ...  

Just expand a little on the climate aspect ( CC not included).  This type of low amplitude La Nina autumn/winter in the past preceded some spectacularly warm springs.  Gotta dust off the antiquity, but 1976 and 2012 ...etc..  They're there, if one goes and just cursory runs their finger down the ENSO history, they'll see the negative ENSO years, and then compare those to notably warm springs there's a pretty clear correlation there - no, not 1::1 ...work with me here.  It's there, and it's non-noise.  So, now add 20 years of accelerating CC.

Which unfortunately for those that have issues with this reality ... springs have begun expressing bigger heat relative to climate, and also all-time, with increasing frequency.  I mean, there have been heat-related deaths in lower China in Marches.  It's a matter of time before a February 2017 type ridge returns, here, and perhaps and does so with greater duration. 

I just see as an idea here, that if we combine this latter aspect with the aforementioned climate inference farther above, we don't get a protracted winter sense of it.  Also, the near history ( last decade's worth) of winters have become all but dependably similarly behaving - in principle. Despite whatever background/preceding ENSO this or that was observed, leitmotif: some early form of early blocking and snow supporting synoptics ( sometimes as early as Octobers for the first time in my life), then, the circulation gets blown open by midriff seasonal velocity saturation.  I'm sorry, since September, see and sense that lurking again ... One thing recent La Nina have not performed very well, is that early climate signaled warmth, however.   It may be Russian Roulette with that if/when water finds its level.      

At this point sign me up 24/7/365  for an EL/LA Nothing for winter 26-27....

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah it's all we got right now. Just need to keep the signal and hope we juice up as we get closer in time. At least it seems like the blowtorches for Christmas and Christmas Eve are being held at bay as we close in. 

Boundary has definitely sunk south some on guidance since yesterday. 

[Typhoon Tip]

GGEM's a nice nod in favor of GFS recency, actually ... 

it's probably going snow on Xmas eve/morning in some micro synoptic weirdness of timing, when embedded ultimately in a longer term predominating warmer signal.  ha

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Boundary has definitely sunk south some on guidance since yesterday. 

Let's keep it that way. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Dec 23 is next snower in SNE

[Typhoon Tip]

The GFS recent runs have been an outlier relative to its ensemble mean wrt the NAO handling

In fact, the GFS recent runs have been an outlier relative to every ensemble mean wrt the NAO handling, EPS, Can ... GEFs  et al. 

Not sure why this guidance is doing that, but it is what it is...and may be the best route to getting a nostalgia Holiday realized.  Namely, it's clearly showing a more western limb -NAO circulation mode behavior in it's cinema, passing through the Holiday and toward NY... That backs the flow through central Canada, and then confluence increases ... blah blah and the boundary ends up suppressing.  

I didn't detail the GEFs with extraordinary obsession or anything ...but just the cursory evaluation of the 500 mb anomaly distribution, the -NAO expression is retrograded in the operational run, and the ensemble mean does not perform that retrograde.   

At the end of the day, the NAO remains the bane of prediction skill in the ambit of forecasting technology. jesus.  that fuggin thing just cannot seem to ever be well-enough predetermined to know with comfort how the local fields will be modulated.  So I guess it's not impossible that the GFS is more right about it... the GGEM from 12z, fwiw, did take a step. 

Edit, case in point, this 12z GFS now decides to look a little less west oriented -NAO than the previous.  We're still playin with dad's model gun with that index out there, though 

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dec 23 is next snower in SNE

[SouthCoastMA]

I would take Christmas Eve flurries, and the CMC does look more interesting than the GFS at least. The GFS shreds the post Christmas system more than the CMC did

[CT Rain]

Meh on the GFS. What a surprise. Just posted this video on the pattern for Christmas week. https://youtu.be/zPngHf9xvyY

 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I would take Christmas Eve flurries, and the CMC does look more interesting than the GFS at least. The GFS shreds the post Christmas system more than the CMC did

All of our psychological hopes of a white Christmas aside, we’re still about a week out from all of this so I hope folks don’t get too riled up yet.

Since we’re riding the boundary it could really go either way if we have a shortwave nearby. I don’t hate the signal especially considering that this is more clipper than coastal. 

[Spanks45]

37 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm surrounded by middle school kids hacking sneezing coughing and whatnot.

The gift that keeps on giving.  I had something last week that gave me crazy vertigo... that was a new one

 

now what is going around, I feel like there was something being passed around since school started...

Sun is finally out, feels fantastic outside, I think I am ready for spring, Lol

[CT Rain]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

you'd think they'd update it though upton has the same thing here even as of 11am.   

If it's not in the model blend it's probably not making it into the forecast.

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I would take Christmas Eve flurries, and the CMC does look more interesting than the GFS at least. The GFS shreds the post Christmas system more than the CMC did

Low over southern  Hudson Bay doesn’t exactly give me good feelings for Snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t think the statistics on Nina Decembers mean anything especially with a totally unscientific sample size.  Also, let’s say everyone is below normal through December and a whopper dumps 1-2 feet starting New Year’s Day afternoon-but the arbitrary cutoff says ratter.   Silly.  What’s perhaps more relevant about the statistic is that low snow in the first half of winter is often a good harbinger regardless of the enso state.  Of course the notable exception is 2014-15 when BOS had single digits for the season in mid January and finished with their all timer at 110.6”

You're wrong....not nearly as big of a deal in El Nino.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

It doesn’t last too long but it’s pretty intense discomfort 

It’s going around all of the schools.
Wife and kid had it and I’ve somehow been able to avoid it even in a small house.  Beer and long, brisk dog walks in the cold night air maybe saved me. 
 

Today is kind of raw crap with the overcast.  I was expecting a sunny day.

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You're wrong....not nearly as big of a deal in El Nino.

Can you provide data to prove me wrong?  Give me low first halves and final totals vs climo.

Also, to clarify what you quoted-I want to be sure you understand that I’m saying a low snow first half correlates with a low snow winter.

[weatherwiz]

2 hours ago, CT Rain said:

The models yesterday didn't really have this thin layer of moisture at 850.

The NBM does really well with sky cover forecasts I think. Out of MOS/NBM, the NBM was the only guidance bringing in these clouds through the day today followed by some clearing late afternoon/evening then increasing late. 

[Fozz]

When is it reasonable to expect something more than a basic 1-3” event?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Fozz said:

When is it reasonable to expect something more than a basic 1-3” event?

when you're in the Cascades 

[weatherwiz]

Well this isn't fair. Damn you Idaho 

[WxWatcher007]

Messy 23-24th system on the Euro.

[alex]

56 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Meh on the GFS. What a surprise. Just posted this video on the pattern for Christmas week. https://youtu.be/zPngHf9xvyY

 

Looks juicy for the Western Alps where I’ll be for the holidays. Hope it’s right. Skiing in the Alps in December can be a gamble. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Messy 23-24th system on the Euro.

That’s the one 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Messy 23-24th system on the Euro.

the term messy doesn't inspire confidence