December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sometimes ignorance is bliss.....the veil of cluelessness will allow some to stare at guidance cross-eyed all season and weenie anyone who suggests that it may not snow, but climo is in fact a useful tool.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sometimes ignorance is bliss.....the veil of cluelessness will allow some to stare at guidance cross-eyed all season and weenie anyone who suggests that it may not snow, but climo is a useful tool.

Do you have any blog posts which have explored the snowless periods of previous decades? 

I am really curious how this stretch compares/contrasts to those periods. I've always been under the impression those periods were the product of colder/drier winters (or moreso drier) while as this stretch we are still pulling off subpar seasons even when we're cold/wet. I mean who cares if we've gone through this before in the 1980's if its for completely different reasons. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Do you have any blog posts which have explored the snowless periods of previous decades? 

I am really curious how this stretch compares/contrasts to those periods. I've always been under the impression those periods were the product of colder/drier winters (or moreso drier) while as this stretch we are still pulling off subpar seasons even when we're cold/wet. I mean who cares if we've gone through this before in the 1980's if its for completely different reasons. 

No, but I think this stretch is definitely more attributable to the velocities coming out of the Pacific as a byproduct of that west Pac warmth, which is exacerbating the influence of the ongoing Pacific cold phase on snowfall. I think the 1980s were more a byproduct of a strongly +NAO multidecadal cycle and some bad luck. There is def. some bad luck in this stretch, too....but it's more than that.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sometimes ignorance is bliss.....the veil of cluelessness will allow some to stare at guidance cross-eyed all season and weenie anyone who suggests that it may not snow, but climo is in fact a useful tool.

I think we all want snow, but some people like to cover their ears when discussion of the overall pattern is not favorable.

we certainly don’t know about individual threats, but generally, we have an idea about the overall pattern structure. And those clues give us an idea of how difficult it will be to achieve winter weather.

Reading some of the posts here and some long range “expert” articles, I’m pretty pessimistic on the rest of winter. I think it’s going to be very hostile on the whole, and if you aren’t a snow stake at 3k on stow mountain, I think there’s going to be a lot of outside looking in.

This isn’t to say we couldn’t get an event during this period, but you have to do some actual calculating as opposed to dismissing bad outcomes because they are in the extended.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, but I think this stretch is definitely more attributable to the velocities coming out of the Pacific as a byproduct of that west Pac warmth, which is exacerbating the influence of the ongoing Pacific cold phase on snowfall. I think the 1980s were more a byproduct of a strongly +NAO multidecadal cycle and some bad luck. There is def. some bad luck in this stretch, too....but it's more than that.

The big question for me is to what degree is this permanent, which is a pretty polarizing issue, but I have maintained a more moderate stance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think we all want snow, but some people like to cover their ears when discussion of the overall pattern is not favorable.

we certainly don’t know about individual threats, but generally, we have an idea about the overall pattern structure. And those clues give us an idea of how difficult it will be to achieve winter weather.

Reading some of the posts here and some long range “expert” articles, I’m pretty pessimistic on the rest of winter. I think it’s going to be very hostile on the whole, and if you aren’t a snow stake at 3k on stow mountain, I think there’s going to be a lot of outside looking in.

This isn’t to say we couldn’t get an event during this period, but you have to do some actual calculating as opposed to dismissing bad outcomes because they are in the extended.

I'm not......buuuuut, you can't dispute strong climo evidence to the contrary if this month ends up as it looks like it may.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Cool ENSO can't produce an awful December for snowfall and still ultimately thrive in terms of the seasonal total....which doesn't preclude a very good period(s), but again....it is what it is-

[40/70 Benchmark]

You can analyze the pattern all you want.....and debate, but what can't be argued is that it needs to snow, and snow significantly soon or else a good season quickly becomes exceedingly unlikely.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, but I think this stretch is definitely more attributable to the velocities coming out of the Pacific as a byproduct of that west Pac warmth, which is exacerbating the influence of the ongoing Pacific cold phase on snowfall. I think the 1980s were more a byproduct of a strongly +NAO multidecadal cycle and some bad luck. There is def. some bad luck in this stretch, too....but it's more than that.

I have these thoughts too. I've been creating composites of SSTs focusing on the Pacific for EL Nino/La Nina dating back to 1900 with a focus on the WPWP. There's lots of studies out there discussing how it has expanded over the last 2-3 decades along with the extension of the WHWP. 

But even with the Nina look...those 29-30C temps are extending well east, just past the dateline. 

Definitely sufficient to sustain strong convection around the dateline which I believe is something that enhances ridging across the NPAC?

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I have these thoughts too. I've been creating composites of SSTs focusing on the Pacific for EL Nino/La Nina dating back to 1900 with a focus on the WPWP. There's lots of studies out there discussing how it has expanded over the last 2-3 decades along with the extension of the WHWP. 

But even with the Nina look...those 29-30C temps are extending well east, just past the dateline. 

Definitely sufficient to sustain strong convection around the dateline which I believe is something that enhances ridging across the NPAC?

 

 

Excerpt from my latest blog:

While the forecast for the balance of 2025 would appear rather unchallenging, things are seldom as they appear in weather. In this particular instance, the caveat is an MJO wave that is expected to remain rather meager and variable after having largely dissipated over the course of the past week following its brief flirtation with phase 8 near the outset of the month.

 

 

 

Note the tendency for the MJO to stagnate and become incoherent enough in phase 8 as to actually be reflected as having reemerged into the MC phases as byproduct of the continued warmth in the western Pacific that was referenced last fall.

 

The consistent struggle for the MJO to remain a coherent wave in the western Pacific has been a theme over the course of the past decade that any seasoned forecaster should not have neglected to consider.

 

 

The disjointed signal that results from the continuation of the battle for proxy between the MC and western Pacific will allow for an occasional element of western Pacific expression to assert itself into the pattern as a byproduct of the areas of dual forcing. This will be especially prevalent during the final week of the month, which is when some potentially colder intrusions may periodically infiltrate the northeastern quarter of the country 

[Snowcrazed71]

Man, I get the pessimism from most. I to am disappointed in how things could pan out. For now, I'm looking forward to having some real time Winter as we are taking a trip to Quebec ( right between Quebec City and Montreal ) in Shawinigan QC arriving there the day after Christmas and staying until early the next week. It's looking Snowy there, so I'm sure I will get my fix while we are there. Hopefully when I get back, things will look better going forward. 

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can analyze the pattern all you want.....and debate, but what can't be argued is that it needs to snow, and snow significantly soon or else a good season quickly becomes exceedingly unlikely.

When you say soon, you meaning by the end of January? I mean, things really shouldn't get going climatologically as far as snow in our region, especially Southern New England and the Tri-State area ( although south of us have done very well and are above average I would say for the month of December and are above average I would say for the month of December).

 Even though we're not getting a parade of snow events here, I wouldn't call it horrible.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

When you say soon, you meaning by the end of January? I mean, things really shouldn't get going climatologically as far as snow in our region, especially Southern New England and the Tri-State area ( although south of us have done very well and are above average I would say for the month of December and are above average I would say for the month of December).

 Even though we're not getting a parade of snow events here, I wouldn't call it horrible.

 

No, the end of December. This is for my area....tri state as done okay.

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta watch 12/23-24 too for a little disturbance. Obviously there’s the Xmas day threat too but not every model agrees on timing. 

I like that pre Christmas window more than trying to thread the needle on Christmas. I’m not as confident in that signal.

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think we all want snow, but some people like to cover their ears when discussion of the overall pattern is not favorable.

we certainly don’t know about individual threats, but generally, we have an idea about the overall pattern structure. And those clues give us an idea of how difficult it will be to achieve winter weather.

Reading some of the posts here and some long range “expert” articles, I’m pretty pessimistic on the rest of winter. I think it’s going to be very hostile on the whole, and if you aren’t a snow stake at 3k on stow mountain, I think there’s going to be a lot of outside looking in.

This isn’t to say we couldn’t get an event during this period, but you have to do some actual calculating as opposed to dismissing bad outcomes because they are in the extended.

I mean in all seriousness, last year we had epic patterns showing up and that was awful. We’ve had bad patterns be awful. We’ve had middling patterns be awful. It’s a rough decade. Yes, there have been great storms, but on balance nothing has worked with the PAC being uncooperative. 

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The big question for me is to what degree is this permanent, which is a pretty polarizing issue, but I have maintained a more moderate stance.

I lean more toward you here. I don’t think it’s permanent, but perhaps one of these longer range oscillations that are really a blip on the global time scale but suck for us. 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can analyze the pattern all you want.....and debate, but what can't be argued is that it needs to snow, and snow significantly soon or else a good season quickly becomes exceedingly unlikely.

100%

We have to be at climo by Dec 31.

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cool ENSO can't produce an awful December for snowfall and still ultimately thrive in terms of the seasonal total....which doesn't preclude a very good period(s), but again....it is what it is-

‘71-72? November ‘71 was good but Dec ‘71 was kind of a dud for snow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

‘71-72? November ‘71 was good but Dec ‘71 was kind of a dud for snow. 

I am talking about the seasonal total after the seasonal tally at the end of December is in single digits.

[Brewbeer]

26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 if you aren’t a snow stake at 3k on stow mountain, I think there’s going to be a lot of outside looking in.

congrats powderfreak

[Hazey]

Every run that you loop up there just crushes them one after another.
Is Nick still up there in the Labrador region?

Think he is station at YYT St. John’s. Rodney Barney from the ol ne.weather days is in YQX Gander. They’ve already gotten a boatload of snow so far. They in the crosshairs…for now.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am talking about the seasonal total after the seasonal tally at the end of December is in single digits.

Ok yeah. When you burn a month in La Niña early on, usually a bad thing. There were places close to the coast in E MA that got skunked in Nov ‘71 but still recovered. Obviously rare though…Feb ‘72 was a huge month despite La Niña. Usually February is the weakest La Niña month. 

[Cyclone-68]

2025 has to have been the most uneventful year for weather locally in my lifetime 

[metagraphica]

One of these things is not like the other:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

2025 has to have been the most uneventful year for weather locally in my lifetime 

My most eventful weather was a 7.5" snowfall in February.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

One of these things is not like the other:

 

Been a common occurrence this year. Mostly sunny forecast ends up mostly cloudy. 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Been a common occurrence this year. Mostly sunny forecast ends up mostly cloudy. 

yeah, their automated forecasts are becoming less reliable....Even my 12 year old mentioned, wasn't it supposed to be sunny today?

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

yeah, their automated forecasts are becoming less reliable....Even my 12 year old mentioned, wasn't it supposed to be sunny today?

The models yesterday didn't really have this thin layer of moisture at 850.

[Fozz]

I was looking at past ORH winters where the total to date was single digits by New Years.

It looks like seasonal totals of 35-50” were common.

I also grouped the average snowfall of every 5-7 year stretch since 1980 and found that the snow drought eras averaged around 50-55”. That includes the last 7 seasons, as well as the 80s.

Of course, I’m at a lower elevation than ORH so I can expect probably 5-10” less than those numbers.

Needless to say, knowing where I come from, I’ll be thrilled to hit climo.

[WxWatcher007]

It's 35.0 here at WXW2. This is the first time in December that SLK has been above freezing. Absolutely nuts. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I was looking at past ORH winters where the total to date was single digits by New Years.

It looks like seasonal totals of 35-50” were common.

I also grouped the average snowfall of every 5-7 year stretch since 1980 and found that the snow drought eras averaged around 50-55”. That includes the last 7 seasons, as well as the 80s.

Of course, I’m at a lower elevation than ORH so I can expect probably 5-10” less than those numbers.

Yup...strong "suck" signal in terms of snowfall. We have two weeks to do something about it before I become convinced of an 8th consecutive dud.

[HoarfrostHubb]

ORH has had 1 AN day this month   -8.3F MTD.  Those numbers will get closer to normal over the next few days

[Spanks45]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The models yesterday didn't really have this thin layer of moisture at 850.

keeping the "pack" strong for 1 more day....It is odd that it hasn't updated yet, still states mostly sunny...at least throw a clouds to sun for those who just rip and read forecasts, that is why I prefer the NBC10 over the NWS for everyday forecasts.