December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Well not me…it’s fine to say things/pattern don’t look good. Reality is fine…no wishcasting here.
 

But when it’s constant complaining non stop…due to an Op run that just the previous cycle showed something totally different, at 10 days lead, and saying the month blows, and winter is over, and it’s just the facts…no that’s not the facts…that’s complete bullshit.  As Steve said…he’ll find any tidbit to go full on atomic negative.  

Euro op run was nice, but I certainly wouldn’t jump for joy on op run threats past day 7. So yeah, one should not be swinging from the rafters on a gfs op run. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well that might be a slight exaggeration…but who knows right.

If we warm sector Thursday night well into the 50’s like models have.. it’ll roar . And then again Friday pm in CAA

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro op run was nice, but I certainly wouldn’t jump for joy on op run threats past day 7. So yeah, one should not be swinging from the rafters on a gfs op run. 

Absolutely…agreed 100%. So Where is he, he should be talking about the Euro Op at 8-10 days?  I mean it looked pretty sweet. Do I believe it? Nope.  But he’ll believe the GFS op for the same lead time, and go crazy negative, and then tell us it’s just the facts guys.  He’s crazy negative over BS. 

[mahk_webstah]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

The problem is the overly optimistic and overly pessimistic drive each other crazy.

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right…

…And there you are, congrats dendrite to you

[moneypitmike]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro op run was nice, but I certainly wouldn’t jump for joy on op run threats past day 7. So yeah, one should not be swinging from the rafters on a gfs op run. 

I only jump on them when they show a blizzard because you know that's how it will play out.

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[Damage In Tolland]

For the many here that have Noyes One degree Outside app.. watch his long range video today. We are definitely very much in the running for a white Xmas .

https://imgur.com/a/QNSGzCF

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

No that's not it. First for example the Euro crushes us. Anyone believe it here.  Not talking about the other world.  As soon as you can you get on a negative roll. Maybe that's who you like to be but honestly Brett posting the next ten days is crap based on OP GFS is silly.  Same as close the shades til after Christmas. We all who love winter want 2015 to walk in the door but reality strikes.  Just saying this, scientifically this pattern could be shit or it could explode. Tons of cold air source but...At any rate it will be interesting.

Nobody knows what’s going to happen, that I agree with. But when the models come Out with several cutters, why can’t we just say it? Why do we have to try to explain it away?

We can have a discussion about what models actually show, but when we start talking about potential, and what they could show, that’s where I get lost, because that’s not what is currently being advertised.

Nobody wants a white Christmas more than me. This is going to be 16 years without one here, this year. Last was 2010

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For the many here that have Noyes One degree Outside app.. watch his long range video today. We are definitely very much in the running for a white Xmas .

https://imgur.com/a/QNSGzCF

I think its not a great chance, but it's definitely not zero....we have about a 2-3 day window in there from 12/23-12/25 to grab something. I think the cold is there during that stretch, but the question is can we get a nice system to run into the cold. PRob a SWFE or overrunning since you don't get many coastals with a ridge over the center of the country. 

 

But this is not a hopeless look by any stretch in New England...

 

[TheMainer]

Fingers crossed CAR has the right idea in their AFD

Rainfall amounts
of one half to one inch are most likely, with a small chance of
local amounts to around 1.5 inches. Significant snowpack loss
is expected Downeast, with less snowpack loss and more
compaction for central and northern areas. The snowpack will
absorb most of the rainfall, so flooding is not a significant
concern. The low level jet will also produce strong to possibly
damaging winds, especially along the coast. Further inland, cold
snowpack should act to strengthen the surface inversion and
limit mixing towards the surface.

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think its not a great chance, but it's definitely not zero....we have about a 2-3 day window in there from 12/23-12/25 to grab something. I think the cold is there during that stretch, but the question is can we get a nice system to run into the cold. PRob a SWFE or overrunning since you don't get many coastals with a ridge over the center of the country. 

 

But this is not a hopeless look by any stretch in New England...

 

Do coastals ever happen with a look like that? I can't imagine how.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think its not a great chance, but it's definitely not zero....we have about a 2-3 day window in there from 12/23-12/25 to grab something. I think the cold is there during that stretch, but the question is can we get a nice system to run into the cold. PRob a SWFE or overrunning since you don't get many coastals with a ridge over the center of the country. 

 

But this is not a hopeless look by any stretch in New England...

 

The 25th into the 26th looks like the timeframe with the energy sliding in from the Pacific. Probably a SWFE

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Do coastals ever happen with a look like that? I can't imagine how.

Alberta Clippers 

[SJonesWX]

3 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Don’t get the pessimism…

still a chance for Christmas Eve miracle on AIFS and Euro .. and Euro with a Boxing Day biggie for CNE

I am confident that a certain religious figure in Dover NH disagrees strongly and laughs at your premise that there is any chance of snow anywhere in the Continental US, or the Vatican for that matter.

[H2Otown_WX]

18z GFS says congrats NNE on the Xmas miracle 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think its not a great chance, but it's definitely not zero....we have about a 2-3 day window in there from 12/23-12/25 to grab something. I think the cold is there during that stretch, but the question is can we get a nice system to run into the cold. PRob a SWFE or overrunning since you don't get many coastals with a ridge over the center of the country. 

 

But this is not a hopeless look by any stretch in New England...

 

Squeak a miller b out of that, play the cards right…

[ORH_wxman]

57 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Do coastals ever happen with a look like that? I can't imagine how.

It would have to be a quick clipper/redeveloper type of coastal. Not some classic Miller A or even a deeper miller B that blows up off Carolinas. 
 

Overwhelmingly the types of threats we get on a look like that would be overrunning/SWFE types.  

[cleetussnow]

59 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Do coastals ever happen with a look like that? I can't imagine how.

Miller bs

edit - maybe that ridge orientation does’t work as is for a miller b

[H2Otown_WX]

58 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Do coastals ever happen with a look like that? I can't imagine how.

We just don't know. Could they happen? Sure, but it's just really hard to know. For anyone.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Nobody knows what’s going to happen, that I agree with. But when the models come Out with several cutters, why can’t we just say it? Why do we have to try to explain it away?

We can have a discussion about what models actually show, but when we start talking about potential, and what they could show, that’s where I get lost, because that’s not what is currently being advertised.

Nobody wants a white Christmas more than me. This is going to be 16 years without one here, this year. Last was 2010

Ok Brett, so if we use this logic of yours, where’s your take on the 12z Euro?  Not a peep from you about it?  Why not? It looked pretty sweet. But no comments on it from you…I mean it is whats being advertised..right? Just like that GFS run you were bitching about earlier today.  Either one of those have just as much chance of verifying…right?  The fact is…both of those runs have a very low chance of verification 8-10 days from now.   See how this works brah. 

[Kitz Craver]

27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok Brett, so if we use this logic of yours, where’s your take on the 12z Euro?  Not a peep from you about it?  Why not? It looked pretty sweet. But no comments on it from you…I mean it is whats being advertised..right? Just like that GFS run you were bitching about earlier today.  Either one of those have just as much chance of verifying…right?  The fact is…both of those runs have a very low chance of verification 8-10 days from now.   See how this works brah. 

I think it’s just a confirmation bias. You see a shitty OP run and your like, “oh FFS look at this, you know this will happen” see a nice OP run and it’s, “no way on earth that’s happening”

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For the many here that have Noyes One degree Outside app.. watch his long range video today. We are definitely very much in the running for a white Xmas .

https://imgur.com/a/QNSGzCF

I made my family open presents yesterday. White Christmas accomplished. 

[WinterWolf]

55 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I think it’s just a confirmation bias. You see a shitty OP run and your like, “oh FFS look at this, you know this will happen” see a nice OP run and it’s, “no way on earth that’s happening”

This can be true…but he used the logic that the GFS is what’s being advertised. Well now so is the 12z Euro. So I mean, c’mon.  If you’re just saying what’s being advertised, as he said he was, then where’s his good remarks for the nice looking model run?  

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Going to try to ask a legitimate question without getting yelled at… is it possible you live in a local snow hole? 

Like… yes you have longitude compared to rest of SNE but your latitude negates it? 

Perhaps you’re just far enough east that you will dance with the mix line in any event without a parked HP.

For SWFEs, you’re just far enough northeast that it takes forever for it to start precipitating and the warm tongue is always closer than it seems. 

For legit coastals with a parked HP, the coastal front parks well to your east, but you’re in a subsidence zone between CF and next band. 

I don’t have evidence to support these other than I’ve started picking up and making mental note of them over the years for the Merrimack Valley. 

 

6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

My thoughts exactly and I talked with Ray about this very subject. 

I am definitely prone to those negative aspects, but not to this extent.....not looking back at my climo. Now, this spot is hostile to jackpots for the reasons that you have mentioned, yes....but more often than not I get enough to still average over 60". The point I will disagree most with is the SWFE....this area cleaned up in  1970, 2007 and 2008.

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Page hits..

I don't think Noyes is a hypster.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think Noyes is a hypster.

He’s pretty realistic and somewhat conservative when it comes to snow.

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

He’s pretty realistic and somewhat conservative when it comes to snow.

He is a very good met.  He used to weenie out a bit way back when, but has gotten more realistic.  

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

He is a very good met.  He used to weenie out a bit way back when, but has gotten more realistic.  

He def knows his stuff. I learned much from him my freshman year at Cornell (he was a senior there in the met department when I was a freshman) 

[Damage In Tolland]

Noyes is top notch. No one better at pattern recognition