December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

18z HRRR way looks better 

That model has been horrific lately…but whatever. 

[KTBFFH1905]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I hope southern peeps can at least get inch or two.  This seems like a coating for the Rt 2 folks.

We just lost our coating after that rain. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

So with all that said…December is as we all thought, sometimes they suck for snow, sometimes they are good.  Kevin’s ideas on December are from a skewed view. 

The last 5 years have been pretty bad so there’s some recency bias…the historic pattern of up and down Decembers looks like Mt Mansfield in comparison. 

[weatherwiz]

I was wondering if there would be upgrades to warnings in the OV for tonight. Surprised there aren't more warnings. I could see a narrow but elongated strip of 6-8". Going to be some surprised peeps there in the morning. 

[ineedsnow]

today is better than some of our high wind warning days.. rip after rip

[ORH_wxman]

Only at 42h and it’s the NAM, but it doesn’t look like 18z is going to help us. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

You really need to be outside of 495 and north of I-84 to get higher than 50/50 chances for White Christmas climatologically in SNE. ORH was around 60-65%. 
 

Obviously recent years have been bad. I think last year in 2024 is the only White Xmas in the 2020s. For ORH, then you have: 2019, 2017, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2005, 2002, 2000.
 

You could maybe count 2020 on a technicality (the snow wasn’t 100% wiped out by 12z which is the measurement time but certainly by 18z it was) 

So we’re sitting at about 50% since 2000. 

I may have asked before, but I don’t think I ever got a concrete response.

Whats the return rate on a 16 year stretch without a white Christmas here? We did not have a white Christmas here in 2017, close by may have, but we did not.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Only at 42h and it’s the NAM, but it doesn’t look like 18z is going to help us. 

You can already tell it’s worse. Classic

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I may have asked before, but I don’t think I ever got a concrete response.

Whats the return rate on a 16 year stretch without a white Christmas here? We did not have a white Christmas here in 2017, close by may have, but we did not.

It has to be pretty low. In fact, it might be hard to find another 16 year stretch there. 

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

This is the 80’s to a frieken T!  Something would always go wrong, and sabotage a good system, and now we are right back to it again. 

Just get some snow on the ground that covers the brown grass, at least for a couple days...not whining about a blizzard here. Last year the only thing that hung around was the 4 inch glacier. Made sledding useless despite the cold temps, come on mother nature, the young kids need it....

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It has to be pretty low. In fact, it might be hard to find another 16 year stretch there. 

That’s what I figured. Just an insane stretch where even here we’ve had some big melt outs right before the holiday.

 

[Chrisrotary12]

Not the most consistently windy day, but the gusts have been impressive.

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

today is better than some of our high wind warning days.. rip after rip

Cold out there today. Brrr. 

[wxsniss]

Not liking NAM trend at 18z, fwiw...

18z Saturday/0z Sunday is a key litmus I've been using on all guidance... all about pin-the-PV-center-on-the-lake... the further northwest that lobe center is, the better the downstream heights and tilt of our trough for our storm a day later: Over Lake Superior, high-end advisory. East of Lake Huron, it's a scraper.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Not liking NAM trend at 18z, fwiw...

18z Saturday/0z Sunday is a key litmus I've been using on all guidance... all about pin-the-PV-center-on-the-lake... the further northwest that lobe center is, the better the downstream heights and tilt of our trough for our storm a day later: Over Lake Superior, high-end advisory. East of Lake Huron, it's a scraper.

 

Yup, it’s pressing further SE this run, so I’d bet we get a scraper at best 

[Typhoon Tip]

'Good Heavens!   are you guys still trying to win?'

[WinterWolf]

As I said earlier, when we want the PV to get involved it doesn’t. When we’d like it to retract a tad, it doesn’t.  Hilarious.  Snow for everybody…no snow for SNE.  Oh well.  It’s extremely early, so I guess there’s that. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NAM back to a graze. 2” on the beaches maybe and then a coating up by the pike 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I know people always comment on who posts and what to expect, but the biggest indicators is who isn’t posting. Scooter hasn’t chimed in wt all. Tells you all you need to know about this “threat”

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Blah, the ending is where you really notice. Shifted way SE, not even close 

[Kitz Craver]

Bleh, whatever. Cue the cutters of yore

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I know people always comment on who posts and what to expect, but the biggest indicators is who isn’t posting. Scooter hasn’t chimed in wt all. Tells you all you need to know about this “threat”

Ha ha, I’m just taking a break. I’m already exhausted by winter. Whenever an event takes one of those “well if this piece goes here and this piece goes here…” I’m all set with that. Just shove it. Pattern kind of sucks. We can’t get a clean ridge out west. It’s dominated by troughs backing their ass up into the Gulf of Alaska which screws up everything. Talk to me when we get a clean ridge out west. This event looks like a Lucy with the football look. Hoping for a miracle.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

NAM would still be a solid 2-4” for much of CT bc of ratios. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ha ha, I’m just taking a break. I’m already exhausted by winter. Whenever an event takes one of those “well if this piece goes here and this piece goes here…” I’m all set with that. Just shove it. Pattern kind of sucks. We can’t get a clean ridge out west. It’s dominated by troughs backing their ass up into the Gulf of Alaska which screws up everything. Talk to me when we get a clean ridge out west. This event looks like a Lucy with the football look. Hoping for a miracle.

I don’t blame you man. It gets tiring here people say “it’s early” pattern looks good, etc.

Ifs been frigid for two weeks and we have 0 to show for it, and Christmas looks like crap. I don’t care how early it is, we squandered the cold, and the pattern is just a variation of what we’ve been seeing.

truth hurts sometimes 

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

That would be about .15-.20 inches of qpf here..if it’s fluffy there’s my 2”

That would be my .02.  As expected. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Hopefully the south coast can score, but this feels like it’s going to end up flurries here.
 

[CT Rain]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ha ha, I’m just taking a break. I’m already exhausted by winter. Whenever an event takes one of those “well if this piece goes here and this piece goes here…” I’m all set with that. Just shove it. Pattern kind of sucks. We can’t get a clean ridge out west. It’s dominated by troughs backing their ass up into the Gulf of Alaska which screws up everything. Talk to me when we get a clean ridge out west. This event looks like a Lucy with the football look. Hoping for a miracle.

Love a melt before Christmas. 

[DJln491]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NAM would still be a solid 2-4” for much of CT bc of ratios. 

at this point I'd settle for whitening up the ground

[kdxken]

Quit crying. We could live in Oregon or the mountain West. A guy who walks my property has a place in Big sky. He's usually long gone by now. Saw him on my game camera today. 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t blame you man. It gets tiring here people say “it’s early” pattern looks good, etc.

Ifs been frigid for two weeks and we have 0 to show for it, and Christmas looks like crap. I don’t care how early it is, we squandered the cold, and the pattern is just a variation of what we’ve been seeing.

truth hurts sometimes 

Being on the nrn edge potentially introduces fronto fun so I’m not ruling it out, but man I can’t help thinking we may see some ticks southeast. I don’t see how it can improve from some mid those 12z solutions.