December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dryslot]

Down to 5.9/-0.4°F, We're going sub zero tonight.

[dryslot]

The end of that 18z GFS run would make for some tough sledding on the 24th.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

That would be great--I'm not seeing it that way.

More of an up and in event.

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The end of that 18z GFS run would make for some tough sledding on the 24th.

Yeah... lots of sleet and freezing rain in this area.  Nice!!!  Take down the grid on Christmas Eve

[dryslot]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah... lots of sleet and freezing rain in this area.  Nice!!!  Take down the grid on Christmas Eve

It would be great for once to get a frozen event in that time frame of any sort after the past several years.

[CoastalWx]

Still a nasty breeze here. Wind Chills ftl here.

[CoastalWx]

Euro went flaccid too at 18z. 18z AI also trended a little worse. Hopefully 00z turns it around. 

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s hilarious. A plant peeler of yore.

Always love temps near 10F with pellets. I’d be fine with it though…plenty of snow before that. ‘94-esque….Jimmy Buffet mele kalikimaka by the time it verifies. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Always love temps near 10F with pellets. I’d be fine with it though…plenty of snow before that. ‘94-esque….Jimmy Buffet mele kalikimaka by the time it verifies. 

lol. That was a nasty setup. 

[CoastalWx]

Over 6” down by NWS Wakefield VA. They stole my 6” record.

[CoastalWx]

That’s impressive though. Kevin’s weed whacker for me. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still a nasty breeze here. Wind Chills ftl here.

Our dog wanted no part of her walk late this afternoon... wuss

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro went flaccid too at 18z. 18z AI also trended a little worse. Hopefully 00z turns it around. 

Like I said half kidding, 12z did just enough to drag people in, only to go “gotcha” the next few cycles 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Already down to 12°.  Should be a brisk morning.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Already down to 12°.  Should be a brisk morning.  

We got to 1F at my house the other day... maybe we hit 0 tonight? (BOX thinks 2F)

[weatherwiz]

Don’t care when it happens but I hope the pattern does relax some and reloads. But watch the time period of when/if this occurs because that could offer up a KU chance. As to what happens after the re-load…who knows but apply some tweaks to this pattern and we could be in for some times in January 

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s impressive though. Kevin’s weed whacker for me. 

At least the ensembles are still showing that better pattern toward Xmas. 18z today vs 24 hours ago

 

Scandi ridging retrograding as we get closer has been a theme so far this month. Also hard to torch really hard across northern tier when you have a strongly -WPO like we’ve seen. 

[dendrite]

54 minutes ago, dryslot said:

More of an up and in event.

Some MEX mofos for Wed and the 14th.

[qg_omega]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro went flaccid too at 18z. 18z AI also trended a little worse. Hopefully 00z turns it around. 

Pattern does not support a turn around

[DavisStraight]

28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Our dog wanted no part of her walk late this afternoon... wuss

I picked up my dog from day care last week, usually when they open the door she runs to me, last week she got halfway to me and turned around and ran back inside when the arctic wind hit her in the face.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Pattern does not support a turn around

Shut up troll

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Some MEX mofos for Wed and the 14th.

8 for Sunday… interesting.

[psv88]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Shut up troll

He’s not wrong 

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Some MEX mofos for Wed and the 14th.

Yes

KLEW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/08/2025  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12| SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15|TUE CLIMO
 N/X  -1  22| 16  35| 28  31| 13  28| 16  32| 18  27| 10  23|  9 19 35
 TMP   0  17| 20  33| 28  24| 16  22| 19  24| 20  20| 12  17| 11      
 DPT  -7   6| 15  32| 22  13|  6   9| 13  16| 14  10|  4   6|  5      
 CLD  CL  PC| OV  OV| OV  PC| CL  CL| PC  OV| OV  OV| OV  PC| CL      
 WND   6   6|  5   7|  8  14| 10  16| 11  11|  5  10| 16  16| 11      
 P12   0   0| 43  84| 69  19| 13   7|  9  21| 18  40| 22  19| 13999999
 P24       0|     86|     72|     15|     21|     40|     27|      999
 Q12   0   0|  1   2|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|       |         
 Q24       0|      2|      1|      0|      0|      1|       |         
 T12   0   0|  2   1|  2   1|  1   1|  1   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0      
 T24        |  2    |  4    |  2    |  3    |  1    |  1    |  1      
 PZP   4   2|  6   6|  6   0|  4   4|  6   7| 10   6|  6   7|  8      
 PSN  96  98| 92  55| 33  79| 93  92| 88  76| 76  89| 90  81| 79      
 PRS   0   0|  2  17| 27  12|  1   3|  1   9|  5   3|  4   4|  6      
 TYP   S   S|  S   S| RS   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S      
 SNW       0|      2|      1|      0|      0|      6|       |         

[SnowGoose69]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least the ensembles are still showing that better pattern toward Xmas. 18z today vs 24 hours ago

 

Scandi ridging retrograding as we get closer has been a theme so far this month. Also hard to torch really hard across northern tier when you have a strongly -WPO like we’ve seen. 

Both GEFS runs and the GEPS today seemed to get cold feet on the warmup after 300 hours, the EPS not as much

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Always love temps near 10F with pellets. I’d be fine with it though…plenty of snow before that. ‘94-esque….Jimmy Buffet mele kalikimaka by the time it verifies. 

[TheMainer]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Down to 5.9/-0.4°F, We're going sub zero tonight.

Car thermometers are always funky, but was showing -1 to -3F once I got 20 miles north of I-95 on the way home, but I we have 2.3F at the house currently which I trust way more. 

[dryslot]

Just now, TheMainer said:

Car thermometers are always funky, but was showing -1 to -3F once I got 20 miles north of I-95 on the way home, but I we have 2.3F at the house currently which I trust way more. 

The one on my 2023 GMC i find about 3-4°F to high.

[Damage In Tolland]

Fake cold warnings tonight . Fakes will be below zero . Reals single digits above 5 to 12 or so 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro went flaccid too at 18z. 18z AI also trended a little worse. Hopefully 00z turns it around. 

Looks good here for wednesday