December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

34° feels like 60°

Amazing what you get used to when it’s cold…toughens ya. 

[SouthCoastMA]

The ICON evolution verbatim is what I fear with the mid month storm, if we are talking possibilities. West coast ridge collapses, and the trough in east doesn't dig much. And the storm develops late well east of Maine. Let's see what the big boy models show

Edit: I guess I was looking at the 14th.. The storm on the 12th looked a bit more promising though still well east and late developing

Hopefully we hit on one of em!

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s quite incredible the consistency of the Grinch Storm. All of the chaos and unpredictability that is meteorology and you can without hyperbole, statistically lock in a cutter around the Christmas holiday is absolutely mind-bending.

Someone years ago, maybe @donsutherland1, ran an analysis and there’s actually higher precipitation around Dec 25 than other parts of the month. 

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Someone years ago, maybe @donsutherland1, ran an analysis and there’s actually higher precipitation around Dec 25 than other parts of the month. 

Usually rain. Looks like a snow game in Buffalo.

[MJO812]

AI GFS

[ariof]

06Z GFS giveth, 12Z GFS taketh away.

[CoastalWx]

Need better meridional flow. Ridge out west getting cut off at the top

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI GFS

Yea let’s have another season of kicking big fantasy snows back to D10+. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

39 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The ICON evolution verbatim is what I fear with the mid month storm, if we are talking possibilities. West coast ridge collapses, and the trough in east doesn't dig much. And the storm develops late well east of Maine. Let's see what the big boy models show

Edit: I guess I was looking at the 14th.. The storm on the 12th looked a bit more promising though still well east and late developing

Hopefully we hit on one of em!

Certainly a plausible evolution.

[Baroclinic Zone]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Need better meridional flow. Ridge out west getting cut off at the top

If we can get some cross polar flow that may help to sharpen that western ridging and amplify downstream trough.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI GFS

It’s sad that it’s come to this to find fantasy snow, but posting a 300+ hour map is crazy. The evolution of this will be completely different run to run for the next week.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The Canadian is a parade of weak clippers generally traversing north of us, with shredded precip fields. And then it’s gearing up for the massive cutter at the end of the run.

Ugly 12z so far 

[MJO812]

I think we all need to move to the lakes. Coastal storms are a thing of the past.

[MJO812]

Awful

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I love how the Dc to Boston snow hole shows up everyday like someone drew it in… 

[tavwtby]

I'll be driving down to Florida on the 15th, coming back the 20th, as long as there's no weather impediments on my travels I'll be happy.

[Spanks45]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I love how the Dc to Boston snow hole shows up everyday like someone drew it in… 

Seeing how the snows are beginning to show up in VA and NC, it won't be long until the gulf coast gets their storm again....Same pattern, just a different year. We sure can't seem to do marginal anymore and now the somewhat newly added, too cold to snow around here. Clearly something is going on....Other snowless periods were just too dry, now we deal with warm/wet, cold/dry pattern

 

[Kitz Craver]

19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I love how the Dc to Boston snow hole shows up everyday like someone drew it in… 

That’s hobby quitting material right there

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Aggressive call

Yes, it is...totally fair.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

That’s hobby quitting material right there

We are just too down with the sickness to ever stop 

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think we all need to move to the lakes. Coastal storms are a thing of the past.

Huh?? Didn't you see the MJO phase 8 and SSW??

[Kitz Craver]

Finally we have BN December and it just wants to fail. Man I want to pull my hair out!!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Finally we have BN December and it just wants to fail. Man I want to pull my hair out!!!

Give it time...most of the great months of December hadn't gotten started yet.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

This place is going to get really bad the next few weeks if odds continue to favor cold and dry until a pre Christmas week Rainer.   Let’s hope we can reshuffle for a Christmas Week Miracle. 

[DavisStraight]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think we all need to move to the lakes. Coastal storms are a thing of the past.

Or move to Stowe

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

Or move to Stowe

Yes

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Someone years ago, maybe @donsutherland1, ran an analysis and there’s actually higher precipitation around Dec 25 than other parts of the month. 

Here's the data for Boston:

[Snowcrazed71]

23 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This place is going to get really bad the next few weeks if odds continue to favor cold and dry until a pre Christmas week Rainer.   Let’s hope we can reshuffle for a Christmas Week Miracle. 

I know the last several years have not been on our side. But we still can't say what's going to happen on Christmas. We can't say it was going to happen next Friday. That keeps changing like the wind. Maybe we should stop talking about what's going to happen around Christmas and focus on the next week. It we'll save several from jumping off the cliff

[DavisStraight]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes

I moved to southwest Maine which is a better spot than I was, at least i got 6 inches last storm, my old place had rain.

[butterfish55]

Nice snowy day in Orchard Park for Bill/Bengals.  Nice to see that it does, in fact, still snow