December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Cyclone-68]

I do have a non scientific hunch that this will be one of those “nickel and dime” years. We may even get normal snowfall but split up into small amounts. I hope I’m wrong 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

I do have a non scientific hunch that this will be one of those “nickel and dime” years. We may even get normal snowfall but split up into small amounts. I hope I’m wrong 

I've always felt the window for big dogs would be late.

[klw]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may send Kevin a Christmas card with this image on the front.

It could be your new profile avatar.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I do have a non scientific hunch that this will be one of those “nickel and dime” years. We may even get normal snowfall but split up into small amounts. I hope I’m wrong 

Most of us would take 80-90% of normal at this point. After 3 straight seasons in the 60% range, that would feel like a blockbuster. 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've always felt the window for big dogs would be late.

Let's march 2023 again 

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Can't wait to see the update with snow into the Delmarva region....fun times

[Spanks45]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of us would take 80-90% of normal at this point. After 3 straight seasons in the 60% range, that would feel like a blockbuster. 

I have average just under 24" the past 4 years here, pretty sure I average 45-50...So yeah anything near that would feel like a record season

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Let's march 2023 again 

Scooter just jumped off the Tobin

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Garbage month. Had one decent snow event and a pretty decent ice storm near the end of the month. 

That must’ve been a decent SWFE on the 29-30th. CON 10.0” on 1.31”, Franklin 13.0” on 1.76”, Lakeport 12.0” on 2.02”, and North Conway 16.0” on 1.77”. Double digit snow with glop on top. 

[WxWatcher007]

Euro with the ivt across much of CT tomorrow. A little skeptical but we’ll see. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of us would take 80-90% of normal at this point. After 7 straight seasons in the 60% range, that would feel like a blockbuster. 

 

[weathafella]

I think I speak for most when I say it’s depressing to have favorable snow guidance with the next run pulling the rug.  I mean it’s cold so we can’t say December isn’t acting wintry but bare ground doesn’t feel like winter.  

[Typhoon Tip]

I was too busy this morning but god ... christ am I glad that ...everything there is in weather chartage, did not greet my eyes first thing this morning.  

Ugly    .

[weathafella]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro with the ivt across much of CT tomorrow. A little skeptical but we’ll see. 

Skynet agrees and both include most of Massachusetts as well.  Sky is more areal coverage.  I think an inch on Saturday is returning.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Oh we pray for an inch 

[TheMainer]

I like the Euro AI up here for Thursday but I don't trust the machines....

[MJO812]

Virginia snowstorm on euro for 12th

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Virginia snowstorm on euro for 12th

Enjoy phase 8...the gift that keeps on giving.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Virginia snowstorm on euro for 12th

Granted ...this is the GEFs -derived prognostic NAO curve, and the Euro is not a part of that ensemble system ... Still, these compressed/suppressed/buttfucker issues with soring up the bums of storm enthusiasts circumstances are all remarkably well correlated with this indexes negative phase below - much to the chagrin of what people are wired so deeply they cannot seem to get through to their heads

Snark aside, the Euro does seem to a conserving the western limb/-NAO suppressive weight longer than this curve below suggests it should. Not sure what the EPS NAO looks like, but it's probably negative when the Va squish is happening would be my guess. Anyway, if the NAO is relaxing, that system might trend N -

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Virginia snowstorm on euro for 12th

160 hours out keep it there for a bit I’m sure it’ll trend north 

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Virginia snowstorm on euro for 12th

Stop it, my god this is getting stupid 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Virginia snowstorm on euro for 12th

Good spot for it right now. The 12/12 system has been kind of amped on ensembles. 

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS is doing that thing it was doing on yesterday's 12z re that 10-11-12 period, where it runs a uber powerful wind max/associated negative tilting S/W up SE of NY Bite by perfect climo track, yet has only a weak primary happy pivot low sitting there over SE Ontario spitting out flurries ...some lame squall leaves New England for it all.. 

okay -

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Stop it, my god this is getting stupid 

It won’t play out that way…and if it does, time to move south lmao.  And when you do, SNE will get clobbered.  Welcome to the 80’s. 

[Typhoon Tip]

there it is ... the Yuletide mando pattern

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, jbenedet said:

I agree in the far interior. Especially NNE. Warming from climo norms is actually conducive to more snowfall. We’ve seen it recently. Dry is the bigger enemy up there. But I do think in large chunk of SNE/CNE up along coastal NNE this is an important trend.

7-8 years ago, I wrote a short essay on potential effects of climate change on the Bureau of Parks and Public Lands' timber management.  As part of it I looked at snowfall and temps for the northerly 2/3 of Maine where 90%+ of the BPL-managed acreage.  I used CAR for the north, Rangeley for the mountains and Farmington for non-mountain inland areas.  Temps have risen noticeably this century, particularly in deep cold - subzero mornings, important for freezing down winter roads.  21st century snowfall increased at all 3 sites, averaging 6% more.  Duration of snow cover was lower (3-5%) at CAR and Farmington but up 5% at Rangeley - elevation helps, I guess.

First subzero morning here - expected about -5 but reached -9, earliest in the season this cold since moving here in 1998.  Maybe the wind quieted earlier than expected?

[WinterWolf]

So, In an average 12 week winter season (84 days) if the ground was covered for the whole 12 weeks(unlikely in southern areas), ..3% less snow duration is about 2.5 days less…not exactly a shocking number imo.  But ok.