December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[mahk_webstah]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

GFS much sharper with that northern stream s/w sunday night

Euro was out to see on the last storm in GFS is better with the northern stream yes?

[ineedsnow]

CMC looks meh

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is partially phasing the two streams which helps it amplify Sunday night. 

Really that's going to be the challenge  ...

I realize I hit at this aspect a lot and probably it's getting on nerves, I dunno  - folks don't seem to acknowledge they understand, or perhaps they don't give a shit. LOL   either way ...

but the fastness of the basal velocity, is also matched by the fact that embeded S/W are torpedoing at huge speeds relative to planetary climate.  We're seeing them enter B.C. and exit the EC of N/A in like 60 hours.  It's very physically challenging to get streams to resonate with that circumstantially going on.  

But that said, it doesn't mean it can't just be enough... or perhaps slow down even ( thus allowing more harmonics), if the non-linear +PNA ( which is in fact bursting in that time range - mentioned this earlier to Southcoast' ) becomes more linearly expressed. 

This morning ... as I glanced over the overnight largely disappointing cinemas, it occurred to me just how fantastic the overall B-C gradient is over our side of the hemisphere.  Perhaps more raw potential explosive power, untapped, than I've ever seen since becoming aware of this shit back in 1990+ ...  But there's shot-gun pellet S/W that are all having trouble resonating and are just blasting past one another.  We just need the large wave scales to curve more - which they are challenged to do ( again..) because the speed saturation.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Wish we had a bit more downstream ridging but let's see if it can dig more and phase a bit earlier. It becomes a nuke south of Nova Scotia

Yeah, it really blows up once it gets past us.

This is the type of system I feel like we had trend better in this timeframe back in like 2014-17 timeframe. We haven’t had any luck with that since 

[CoastalWx]

We’ll melt it out a few days later anyways as our clipper becomes a cutter.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC looks meh

Only model showing really anything is the gfs. Not great 

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You’ve been on a heater over the last couple of years.

only a 4 hour drive away but might as well be on the moon with the sensible weather differences 

Ebb and flow of climate is interesting.  We were not on a heater there in some of those SNE 2010s seasons.  But it’s been a run the past two seasons.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Euro was out to see on the last storm in GFS is better with the northern stream yes?

I don't think comparing model performance for the last storm has any bearing on what to expect from guidance on this storm. They are two totally different setups. In retrospect though, all guidance really struggled with the last storm. Every model, every run, was yielding a totally different look and evolution of the 500mb energy but given that regime that should be expected. 

Also, when it comes to potential phasing events its all about timing. The slightest difference in the timing of the phase can mean a SLP of weak sauce with nothing or a full fledged nor'easter.  

Even on the Euro there is more room for the northern stream to dig given the jet streak associated with the trough but subtle differences can result in big changes to the sfc output.

[WxWatcher007]

 

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro was close. Hopefully it ticks a bit better at 12z and then I’ll be more intrigued. We’re kind of due for a solid advisory clipper. 

Best part is that whatever happens is inside 96h. No long range tracking here.

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Really that's going to be the challenge  ...

I realize I hit at this aspect a lot and probably it's getting on nerves, I dunno  - folks don't seem to acknowledge they understand, or perhaps they don't give a shit. LOL   either way ...

but the fastness of the basal velocity, is also matched by the fact that embeded S/W are torpedoing at huge speeds relative to planetary climate.  We're seeing them enter B.C. and exit the EC of N/A in like 60 hours.  It's very physically challenging to get streams to resonate with that circumstantially going on.  

But that said, it doesn't mean it can't just be enough... or perhaps slow down even ( thus allowing more harmonics), if the non-linear +PNA ( which is in fact bursting in that time range - mentioned this earlier to Southcoast' ) becomes more linearly expressed. 

And that is my big seasonal concern. Torpedo is a brilliant way of describing it. If it hits it can do legit damage, but if it is one of those crap unguided ones most of them zip on with sound and fury signifying nothing. 

[Cold Miser]

32 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Monday morning commute disaster on the gfs. Nice little event Monday morning. How we pray 

We pray for winter commute disasters. 

Angry drivers spilling their Dunkin coffees in their laps.

Bagels slathered with cream cheese falling upside down on to a dirt & dog shit covered floor mat.  

Bwahahahahah.  

[alex]

In the meantime, ripping heavy snow. Not really squally, rather steady

[TheMainer]

Nice Mood flakes in the air, coating on the vehicle, probably ended up with close to 5 from the storm Tuesday, ground is stiffer than normal, lakes are locking up, another 6 and the groomers will roll. Life above the 45th parallel is good (if you have a good WFH job)

[WxWatcher007]

SN+ 

17.8/16.1

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

Nice Mood flakes in the air, coating on the vehicle, probably ended up with close to 5 from the storm Tuesday, ground is stiffer than normal, lakes are locking up, another 6 and the groomers will roll. Life above the 45th parallel is good (if you have a good WFH job)

People already out ice fishing, I have bait dealers calling me for bait bags already, Wasn't until January last year.

[Typhoon Tip]

Here you go Weatherwiz ....  we were discussing this squall potential earlier in the week ..well, good call I guess. Them be s-squall warning boxes

https://radar.weather.gov/station/kenx/standard

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here you go Weatherwiz ....  we were discussing this squall potential the earlier in the week ..well, good call I guess. Them be s-squall warning boxes

https://radar.weather.gov/station/kenx/standard

Impressive snow squalls for sure!

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Impressive snow squalls for sure!

It will die out before it gets here 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Impressive snow squalls for sure!

I was musing ( if not diabolically hoping LOL ) that these would rake through at about 4:49 PM, followed by a 15F temp crash

muah hahahahaha

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I was musing ( if not diabolically hoping LOL ) that these would rake through at about 4:49 PM, followed by a 15F temp crash

muah hahahahaha

Still might happen. NE MA could be in game between 3-6 PM for some intense squalls 

[TheMainer]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

People already out ice fishing, I have bait dealers calling me for bait bags already, Wasn't until January last year.

Yeah we can fish a lot of ponds this weekend and even have sleds out if we want, you guys must be pretty froze up down there too?

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

Yeah we can fish a lot of ponds this weekend and even have sleds out if we want, you guys must be pretty froze up down there too?

Somewhat, We should be good to go after this weekend.

[Typhoon Tip]

12z GEFs mean has a higher latitude center jump suggested for the 8th.  Much better presentation for something in this window comparing to the 00z.  06z interim run did step wise improve so this is a trend.  I don't think the operational run is complete garbage - as I've outlined, there's a +PNA burst, albeit minoring but there nonetheless; so there's a background tendency for more amplitude ( correction vectoring - ).   

...Not a major by any means -

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Really that's going to be the challenge  ...

I realize I hit at this aspect a lot and probably it's getting on nerves, I dunno  - folks don't seem to acknowledge they understand, or perhaps they don't give a shit. LOL   either way ...

but the fastness of the basal velocity, is also matched by the fact that embeded S/W are torpedoing at huge speeds relative to planetary climate.  We're seeing them enter B.C. and exit the EC of N/A in like 60 hours.  It's very physically challenging to get streams to resonate with that circumstantially going on.  

But that said, it doesn't mean it can't just be enough... or perhaps slow down even ( thus allowing more harmonics), if the non-linear +PNA ( which is in fact bursting in that time range - mentioned this earlier to Southcoast' ) becomes more linearly expressed. 

This morning ... as I glanced over the overnight largely disappointing cinemas, it occurred to me just how fantastic the overall B-C gradient is over our side of the hemisphere.  Perhaps more raw potential explosive power, untapped, than I've ever seen since becoming aware of this shit back in 1990+ ...  But there's shot-gun pellet S/W that are all having trouble resonating and are just blasting past one another.  We just need the large wave scales to curve more - which they are challenged to do ( again..) because the speed saturation.

Acknowledged captain haha. I hear you... and yes we all do. My question is, do you believe this is strictly an east coast storm issue? The reason I ask is that we see plenty of tight phasing pretty much anywhere still. Seriously, not trying to be an ass.. just curious

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Only model showing really anything is the gfs. Not great 

You’re a beggar…you can’t be choosy…be happy we have one major at the moment suggesting something…and it’s ensemble also.