December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not really. 4 years running of good tracks without a good airmass to tap into. Cold first then track. 

Cold is here bro…that’s the point. Decent Track is what we want now, cuz cold is available. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

42 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Cold is here bro…that’s the point. Decent Track is what we want now, cuz cold is available. 

I disagree that the cold is here. Some of these clippers that are popping up are rain, or  mix at best. The ones that have shown up have been good for NNE.

Im not convinced any system that comes along is going to be a cold one. We’ve seen this time and time again over the last several years. 

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I disagree that the cold is here. Some of these clippers that are popping up are rain, or  mix at best. The ones that have shown up have been good for NNE.

Im not convinced any system that comes along is going to be a cold one. We’ve seen this time and time again over the last several years. 

Ok. So I ask you again. Why do you bother being on here then? Don't you think that there are several of us who feel the same to way? But we aren't constantly bitching about it with every single post.

Chin up, pull your big boy pants up, and hope for the best. 

[MJO812]

Here comes the gfs for the 8th. So close but sloppy.

[weathafella]

Temperatures from late week going forward are solidly below normal.  BOS normal is still low to mid 40s.  Here in Chicago, it’s been way below normal-Canada is frigid and it’s close to us.  Carping about temperatures 5 days out seems silly.  If you get a clipper redeveloping under is we’ll do ok.  Besides, I’m a snow magnet and I’m heading home starting tomorrow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I disagree that the cold is here. Some of these clippers that are popping up are rain, or  mix at best. The ones that have shown up have been good for NNE.

Im not convinced any system that comes along is going to be a cold one. We’ve seen this time and time again over the last several years. 

In a vacuum, the Track is meaningless if the airmass isn’t here. With that said, plenty of cold around on guidance. I don’t hate the look tbh

[George001]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not really. 4 years running of good tracks without a good airmass to tap into. Cold first then track. 

Correct, the #1 ingredient when looking for snow is cold. The track was good for this storm, and I rained. Airmass is everything

[eduggs]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a ton of energy in the flow starting this weekend into next week…just a lot of vorticity firehosing off the pacific and if one of those amplifies, then we could see a larger system. I don’t think we’re going to be lacking for threats. They may not all materialize but I think guidance will show storms at different times next week. 

I like your hint of optimism. The modeled longwave trof position and angle look very favorable for almost 10 days. Wave after wave diving from the Pac NW into the central US... just need one or two to find a gap and amplify. I think it's the kind of "pattern" that you'd want in December to try to string a few together and build a pack. Odds are usually against us, but I don't hate the look.

[eduggs]

15 minutes ago, George001 said:

Correct, the #1 ingredient when looking for snow is cold. The track was good for this storm, and I rained. Airmass is everything

FWIW, you only had to go about 30 miles north of NYC today to find good snow. It never got above freezing in most of Putnam County, NY including all the way down at river/sea level. This was a cold airmass for that area (before, during, and after), which isn't typically a snowy location. New England got kind of boned with this storm because of the particular upper level progression and low level flow/coastal fronts. But this was kind of a fluke.

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I like your hint of optimism. The modeled longwave trof position and angle look very favorable for almost 10 days. Wave after wave diving from the Pac NW into the central US... just need one or two to find a gap and amplify. I think it's the kind of "pattern" that you'd want in December to try to string a few together and build a pack. Odds are usually against us, but I don't hate the look.

Yeah it's not a bad look at all for the early-winter crew.  Obviously NNE has been spoiled this year and it really looks to continue, and that's a good sign.

[Torch Tiger]

0z gfs has a nice 7-10 day run, but beyond that the -NAO gone and it's much more seasonable, if not AN 

[Arnold214]

7.5" so far in Gray ME. My wife is jealous.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

0z gfs has a nice 7-10 day run, but beyond that the -NAO gone and it's much more seasonable, if not AN 

Ensembles (both GEFS and EPS) have a pretty nice pattern by the end of their runs with at most a short period of AOA normal.  Time will tell.

[Torch Tiger]

19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ensembles (both GEFS and EPS) have a pretty nice pattern by the end of their runs with at most a short period of AOA normal.  Time will tell.

the sooner the better, i'm over cold/snow after like 12/25-1/1.. If it's not a MECS or better blizzard i'm checked out

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, Arnold214 said:

7.5" so far in Gray ME. My wife is jealous.

Eck cut those damn trees down at GYX doppler. TIA

[SnoSki14]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You got thrown a bone in January 2022, and me in January 2024....other than that, brutal stretch.

This has been the reality for the past decade. Bluewave constantly points this out. It's the same kind of storm track too. 

The only ones that really benefit are anyone around the lakes and C/NNE. 

Maybe the pattern will flip again one day but we need to see a complete change in the forcing out in the Pacific. 

[Kitz Craver]

Active Northern stream from both camps. Something will pop. Bring back the clipper of yore!

[mahk_webstah]

Wunderground has snow 3 straight days 10-12th.  Light but indicative of the conversation about small systems and clippers.  Cold and somewhat active is good and can bring surprises that we don’t agonize about for 7 days.

[amarshall]

The snow and ice crews out on the Deep South shore is hysterical. Slow previous two years .


.

[CoastalWx]

The 10th to 11th starting to look like dung now. Hope it comes back. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The 10th to 11th starting to look like dung now. Hope it comes back. 

Well 7-8 days away, we know how these oscillate…modeling is dung so. 

[WinterWolf]

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

the sooner the better, i'm over cold/snow after like 12/25-1/1.. If it's not a MECS or better blizzard i'm checked out

Bro, go do something else for god sakes. WTF?  
 

Please..do everybody a favor and Check the F Out!   

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well 7-8 days away, we know how these oscillate…modeling is dung so. 

Euro op was close. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro op was close. 

Yup. But look what we just went through with yesterdays storm …this is still an eternity away. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Yup. But look what we just went through with yesterdays storm …this is still an eternity away. 

The last few seasons have felt like eternity.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I disagree that the cold is here. Some of these clippers that are popping up are rain, or  mix at best. The ones that have shown up have been good for NNE.

Im not convinced any system that comes along is going to be a cold one. We’ve seen this time and time again over the last several years. 

I also see people posting to the effect that what we have on the ground "isn't going anywhere"....well, it's going to be near 40 today and tomorrow here on the cp, so last time I checked, snow goes down the drain at that temp.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would be shocked if we hit mid month without a solid warned event for much of the region....strongly doubt we make it that far.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The last few seasons have felt like eternity.

It has…but you know we can’t base the current set up on past performance either. Maybe we strike out again…but there will be shots. All we can ask for. 

[alex]

Stake up to 8” after this last storm. Not bad 

[WinterWolf]

Below normal temps, and cold nearby, with active storm track…this is a decent set up going forward. We’ll have chances.