December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Probably more likely than normal that we see some snow. Very volatile weather pattern though 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably more likely than normal that we see some snow. Very volatile weather pattern though 

Hopefully 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, eduggs said:

This is the kind of storm that I can imagine looking borderline for snow right down to the Bronx until the NAM sends the vortmax to Buffalo and torches 900mb to 8C... signaling the rest of guidance to rain to Albany.

That said, synoptically, right now as modeled, it's pretty close for snow even in the City itself. The ICON and GFS have shifted slightly colder/south at 12z and 6z respectively, and ensembles (if you believe they are useful at this range) are south of their parent operational runs. The antecedent cold is marginally supportive. It wouldn't take a huge change in the shortwave structure aloft to lead to a snowier outcome further south.

It's not what I would bet on, but there is still some reasonable chance... especially outside of concrete jungles.

Icon getting interesting for the coast

[ag3]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon getting interesting for the coast

It’s a raging rainstorm well north and west of NYC and into New England.