December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[weatherpruf]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah i guess.  Alot of the world celebrates the holiday in warm weather in reality.

and fireworks

[MJO812]

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[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Low of 5 this Morning and day 8 of continuous snow cover. Not a bad streak from 2.5 inches of snow. 

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Not sure why cold matters on xmas-it's an indoor holiday.    Whether it's 12 or 56 you're sitting inside

 

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Because of the Christmas shows that always show snow.

Unapologetically, it’s 100% cozy vibes for me, engendered by cheesy Xmas movies.  The holiday just doesn’t seem real for me when we are torching during it.

[forkyfork]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

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[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Eduardo said:

 

Unapologetically, it’s 100% cozy vibes for me, engendered by cheesy Xmas movies.  The holiday just doesn’t seem real for me when we are torching during it.

I prefer it warm if we're not going to snow or keep snowcover-rather go out and walk and get away from the in laws lol

[NorthShoreWx]

40 minutes ago, psv88 said:

15.7 here

More inland helped.  Even the south shore of Nassau was colder.  Rare for us to be warmer than NYC absent an early season cutter.

[MANDA]

Virginia snowfall from just yesterday.  Does not include the totals from the event on the 5th.

 

Meanwhile I'm sitting with a trace on the ground and .70" for the season to date.

 

[David-LI]

No snow or only flurries on 12z GFS


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[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

No snow or only flurries on 12z GFS


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pattern doesn't support any storms in the northern stream to reach us still producing much- flow is too fast - in and out cold shots - have to wait till later in the month for the SOI to go further into negative territory and the southern stream gets more involved - then we have to rely on that 2nd advertised Strat warming event ..........

[MANDA]

Arctic surge for the coming weekend into early next week into the northeast is first class cold for any point in Winter, never mind December 15th.  

Ouch!

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

pattern doesn't support any storms in the northern stream to reach us still producing much- flow is too fast - in and out cold shots - have to wait till later in the month for the SOI to go further into negative territory and the southern stream gets more involved - then we have to rely on that 2nd advertised Strat warming event ..........

Cmc further north. Rain to SNE. 

[MANDA]

Cold across the Yukon Territory of Canada this morning is extremely impressive.  Temperatures -35 to -40 over a fairly large area with a -52 at Beaver Creek.  Impressive cold pool stretching from interior Siberia over the pole into western Canada.

[jm1220]

This Sun system is really just a vigorous shortwave moving in a fast chaotic pattern. There’s a chance we’re close enough north of it to be snowy, but also a chance it’s more suppressed crap or too amped. We won’t really know until within 72hrs or maybe even 60. Depends on the placement of the incoming arctic blast/trough and track of the shortwave as it comes in. 

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

pattern doesn't support any storms in the northern stream to reach us still producing much- flow is too fast - in and out cold shots - have to wait till later in the month for the SOI to go further into negative territory and the southern stream gets more involved - then we have to rely on that 2nd advertised Strat warming event ..........

Good luck with all that.   This looks very similar to last winter with cold/dry and limited precip overall.

[WestBabylonWeather]

38 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Virginia snowfall from just yesterday.  Does not include the totals from the event on the 5th.

 

Meanwhile I'm sitting with a trace on the ground and .70" for the season to date.

 

Snow twice within 5 days in the piedmont of VA where my dad lives is extremely rare. While we get nothing. It’s like when Pensacola Florida got 10”

 

the misery keeps going 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Cold across the Yukon Territory of Canada this morning is extremely impressive.  Temperatures -35 to -40 over a fairly large area with a -52 at Beaver Creek.  Impressive cold pool stretching from interior Siberia over the pole into western Canada.

Sounds like there is one continuos supply of cold air, and not cutoff from any one region?

[WeatherGeek2025]

UKMET completely lost the storm for this weekend squashes it down south. I don't understand how these models work, if it shows rain a week from now it'll be the truth and it'll rain next week. but any snow even 3-4 days it'll somehow suppress the storm, inland run it and show rain or just squash it completely. Very tough for snow weenies nowadays! I am looking for a new hobby in the meantime maybe buying some cryptocurrencies may be in the works

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

UKMET completely lost the storm for this weekend squashes it down south. I don't understand how these models work, if it shows rain a week from now it'll be the truth and it'll rain next week. but any snow even 3-4 days it'll somehow suppress the storm, inland run it and show rain or just squash it completely. Very tough for snow weenies nowadays! I am looking for a new hobby in the meantime maybe buying some cryptocurrencies may be in the works

not really worth it to look at OP models beyond day 5 really....too erratic once you get past that range and the solutions often change dramatically from run to run

[wthrmn654]

2 times now is been in the teens so far this December.  16 Friday morning and about 17 this morning.  Surrounded by water with no wind, that's very very impressive for it only being beginning of December here on the island at the end..

[winterwx21]

12 Euro gives us light snow with light accumulations Sunday morning. Still several days away, so who the heck knows at this point. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

we still have euro ai on our side pretty big hit!

[steve392]

15 degrees this morning. Lake down the block finally froze over.  Believe this is the earliest I've seen it frozen.  

[TheClimateChanger]

On 12/5/2025 at 9:59 PM, MANDA said:

No joke.  It might not be sexy to talk about drought at this time of year but the dry pattern persists.  If we have a dry Winter we will go into Spring with well below normal ground water levels and reservoir levels.  If dryness during the Spring persists it will worsen quickly.  Certainly seems as though we are on our way toward a dry December.

Very myopic view.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Very myopic view.

 

Our yards might be muddy, but rivers and streams are at or near record low flowrates for the date.

Hence also why many lakes and reservoirs have fallen, with even larger uncontrolled (or limited control) lakes (Lake Seneca and Lake Champlain) experiencing low levels not seen in decades back in September and October.

[North and West]

Good luck with all that.   This looks very similar to last winter with cold/dry and limited precip overall.

We’re in an overall drought the past few years, warm or cold.


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[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

2 times now is been in the teens so far this December.  16 Friday morning and about 17 this morning.  Surrounded by water with no wind, that's very very impressive for it only being beginning of December here on the island at the end..

Not having wind was the key.  We had a breeze off the sound all night and were about the only place in the island that didn't get below 20 (although technically we did if you have confidence in the 19.9° that my sensor reported).

Without that breeze, the low single number dewpoints would have resulted in much lower temperatures IMBY.

Orient has around 18 miles more latitude, but that usually means nothing under high pressure.  It's all wind, elevation, and water exposure (or a combination).

For those less familiar with LI geography, Orient Point is 2 or 3 miles farther north than Suffern NY.  Roughly on a line with Ossining and Bridgeport.

[the_other_guy]

27 minutes ago, North and West said:

We’re in an overall drought the past few years, warm or cold.


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That is on the heels of very wet years. Everything balances out.