December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[dWave]

58 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

No, I just looked it up. That was a 2-day event. The highest calendar day tally was 11.3" on the 23rd, but the 2-day total was 17.8 inches. 5,830 days ago (adding in today) was December 19, 2009, when an astounding 15.0" fell at DC in a single calendar day. 

I think that was when they had the back to back blizzards. I don't know if that was storm 1 or 2, but they produced the biggest snowpacks I've have ever seen, outside of what I've seen in lake effect snow areas, and it held its own against that as well. I think the NY area got hit with one of the 2 storms.

[Dark Star]

12 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Snowing here on Staten Island

Flurries, perhaps mixed with graupel here in central Union County NJ...

[psv88]

With the same looking pacific as last year I don’t see why people are optimistic for snow. We have no STJ AGAIN, and just like last year are in the screw zone. 
 

I see another below average season coming. Last winter was cold and dry for the most part and we seem to be back there. Without a relax in the flow and more of +PNA we aren’t getting much 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

No, I just looked it up. That was a 2-day event. The highest calendar day tally was 11.3" on the 23rd, but the 2-day total was 17.8 inches. 5,830 days ago (adding in today) was December 19, 2009, when an astounding 15.0" fell at DC in a single calendar day. 

If we had slightly weaker blocking in 09-10, then NYC could have challenged 95-96.

During 10-11 we had over 60” at Newark from 12-26 to 1-27. But the pattern quickly reversed on February putting 95-96 out of reach.

I am really grateful that I got to experience 10-11 as my last full winter living in Long Beach.

 

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Flurries, perhaps mixed with graupel here in central Union County NJ...

Heavily overcast here with a 1:00 p.m. temperature of 22 degrees.  Impressive cold IMO.  Granted the overcast is helping.

[North and West]

Good ole alberta clippers,I remember growing up as a teen in the 90's. They had a clipper coming thru every 3 to 5 days it seems. The 90's was an epic time for winter weather also tbh. 

.

[jm1220]

28-29 at 1pm, legit cold for this time of year. 

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

With the same looking pacific as last year I don’t see why people are optimistic for snow. We have no STJ AGAIN, and just like last year are in the screw zone. 
 

I see another below average season coming. Last winter was cold and dry for the most part and we seem to be back there. Without a relax in the flow and more of +PNA we aren’t getting much 

Agree on it having the same issue as last year.  Wonder if the SOI drop will help get the southern jet going for a bit?   

[jm1220]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If we had slightly weaker blocking in 09-10, then NYC could have challenged 95-96.

During 10-11 we had over 60” at Newark from 12-26 to 1-27. But the pattern quickly reversed on February putting 95-96 out of reach.

I am really grateful that I got to experience 10-11 as my last full winter living in Long Beach.

 

Yep-12/26/2010 is one of my favorites living there for sure. Too bad we couldn’t get that death band over NJ a little further east. 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree on it having the same issue as last year.  Wonder if the SOI drop will help get the southern jet going for a bit?   

I think the main problem is the flow just won’t amplify when we need it to because of the ferocious Pacific jet which knocks the PNA ridge down or nudges it east too much. So even if we have more southern stream energy it will just get booted out to sea. We had plenty of storminess south of us last winter that couldn’t turn the corner. But when we have periods of -PNA, the SE ridge returns with a vengeance and we go back to cutter/SWFE, or risk any -NAO linking up with the ridge. Also in any Nina December we need to make opportunities count when we have cold stretches like these because odds are, later in the winter will be more hostile if anything and many have posted the stats about how we do around NYC when Central Park has over vs under 4” snow in December in a Nina. So I know it’s only 12/5 but given Nina climo, it’s frustrating we’re back to the exact same BS from last winter with wasted dry cold, suppressed garbage then warm/wet. 

[snywx]

21/6 out there right now. Few flurries flying around w/ snow cover. Impressive for December 5th

[eduggs]

Cycling through all model guidance from 0z to 12z it's kind of funny to see what looks like a snow force field in effect for our area. Plenty of action but it's either north or south. Hope it changes soon.

[coastalplainsnowman]

Anybody remember the movie Krull and the Cyclopses who had traded one eye in exchange for being able to see the future, but were tricked in that the only future they could see was their own demise?  That's what this place is like.  

Here it is, early December.  Snow to our south, sub freezing temperatures across most of this board, mood flakes on the way, below normal temperatures forecast pretty far out,  and some of us *still* aren't happy, because at some point, it's going to rain or be mild again someday.

As for all the talk about "we're screwed, it's going to be cold but dry", I'm willing to bet that in every year of this board's existence, there was chatter like that two days into every single solitary late fall/winter cold snap which didn't immediately produce.  Sometimes it turned out to be true, but sometimes it did not.

For the non mets on here who like snow and cold, enjoy the moment for pete's sake.  It's always eventually going to be warm again.

 

[steve392]

Some very tiny flurries floating around at home in little ferry.  

[MJO812]

[eduggs]

Examining model soundings for tonight, it looks like saturation is mostly below the snow growth zone. That suggests maybe freezing drizzle and snow grains.

[jm1220]

Few flurries here. 

[Dan76]

16 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Examining model soundings for tonight, it looks like saturation is mostly below the snow growth zone. That suggests maybe freezing drizzle and snow grains.

CTZ009>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-060700-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
128 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Areas of light precipitation may develop tonight and may be in the
form of flurries or freezing drizzle. If freezing drizzle
develops, a glaze of ice is possible on any untreated surface.
This may result in hazardous travel conditions quickly
developing.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree on it having the same issue as last year.  Wonder if the SOI drop will help get the southern jet going for a bit?   

That big SOI drop/strong -SOI correlation to strengthening the STJ only works during El Niños, not La Nina’s. Unfortunately many years ago, JB spread the completely false narrative that big SOI drops, no matter what the ENSO state, result in an energized southern stream (STJ) and east coast storms and it got taken for fact and people ran with it…

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

CTZ009>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-060700-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
128 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Areas of light precipitation may develop tonight and may be in the
form of flurries or freezing drizzle. If freezing drizzle
develops, a glaze of ice is possible on any untreated surface.
This may result in hazardous travel conditions quickly
developing.

[Krs4Lfe]

Unfortunately, it looks like we might have to shut the blinds for a bit over here. Both of the next clippers will likely head to our north, with maybe some light rain for our area. On the backside, cold and dry once more. Colder than normal weather seems to be nearly guaranteed for the foreseeable future. But no snow in sight. 

[winterwx21]

On the 18z run the HRRR continues to show some snow showers delivering maybe a half inch for this area overnight. Hopefully it's correct and we wake up to a nice little coating of snow tomorrow morning. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yep-12/26/2010 is one of my favorites living there for sure. Too bad we couldn’t get that death band over NJ a little further east. 

That was some of my highest snow drifting in Long Beach since February 78. 

[eduggs]

The 18z 3km NAM has 0.1" liquid for part of the region tonight. I'm skeptical that it can accumulate much due to snow growth problem. But sometimes these low level lift/crystallization events that linger for several hours over an area can surprise. I'll take the under for now.

[eduggs]

The low level moisture moving in on a SSE flow is already visible on radar off the NJ coast. If it's ZR, I can see short-fused advisories being posted. I hope it's snow/snow grains instead.

[MJO812]

51 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Unfortunately, it looks like we might have to shut the blinds for a bit over here. Both of the next clippers will likely head to our north, with maybe some light rain for our area. On the backside, cold and dry once more. Colder than normal weather seems to be nearly guaranteed for the foreseeable future. But no snow in sight. 

Watch for storms to pop up on the models as we get closer.  I am still on the train for a mid to late December snowstorm. 

[donsutherland1]

A weak system brought an area of 1"-3" of snow to parts of Virginia and Maryland with a few locally higher amounts. Washington, D.C. picked up 1.1" of snow.

Meanwhile, farther north in the New York City area, the temperature fell to near record and record lows in parts of the region this morning. Low temperatures included:

Albany: -1° (old record: 2°, 1886, 1926, and 1929) ***Coldest so early in the season since 1976***
Binghamton: 3° (old record: 5°, 1971 and 1989)
Boston: 12°
Hartford: 5°
Islip: 21°
New Haven: 14° (old record: 15°, 1966)
New York City-Central Park: 20°
New York City-JFK Airport: 20° (tied record set in 1966)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 20° (old record: 21°, 1942)
Newark: 20°
Philadelphia: 25°
Poughkeepsie: 6° (old record: 7°, 1966 and 1989)
Providence: 13°
White Plains: 14° (tied record set in 1966)

The weekend will be cool but dry. A fresh surge of cold air will arrive Sunday night.

The ongoing stretch of below normal temperatures will likely continue into or through the second week of December. December 1-10 will be a solidly colder than normal period. The potential exists for the coldest first 10 days of December since at least 2007 (33.4°, 5th coldest December 1-10 since 2000).

The five coldest December 1-10 periods since 2000 were:

1. 30.6°, 2002
2. 32.2°, 2003
3. 32.4°, 2000
4. 33.1°, 2005
5. 33.4°, 2007

All 5 of these cases had measurable snowfall in Central Park.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around November 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -33.01 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.968 today. 

 

[SI Mailman]

Yep-12/26/2010 is one of my favorites living there for sure. Too bad we couldn’t get that death band over NJ a little further east. 

Got caught underneath it and jackpotted on Staten Island. It’s still my number 1 storm of all time. 30 inches here.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Got caught underneath it and jackpotted on Staten Island. It’s still my number 1 storm of all time. 30 inches here.

25 inches here

There were many cars stuck on my block for days.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Snowing here..