December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Probably more likely than normal that we see some snow. Very volatile weather pattern though 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably more likely than normal that we see some snow. Very volatile weather pattern though 

Hopefully 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, eduggs said:

This is the kind of storm that I can imagine looking borderline for snow right down to the Bronx until the NAM sends the vortmax to Buffalo and torches 900mb to 8C... signaling the rest of guidance to rain to Albany.

That said, synoptically, right now as modeled, it's pretty close for snow even in the City itself. The ICON and GFS have shifted slightly colder/south at 12z and 6z respectively, and ensembles (if you believe they are useful at this range) are south of their parent operational runs. The antecedent cold is marginally supportive. It wouldn't take a huge change in the shortwave structure aloft to lead to a snowier outcome further south.

It's not what I would bet on, but there is still some reasonable chance... especially outside of concrete jungles.

Icon getting interesting for the coast

[ag3]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon getting interesting for the coast

It’s a raging rainstorm well north and west of NYC and into New England.

 

 

[sussexcountyobs]

14 minutes ago, ag3 said:

It’s a raging rainstorm well north and west of NYC and into New England.

 

 

That's funny. All my local forecasts for amounts, which, granted, is WAY to early to put out amounts. Is over 6". My point is. Where do you get this amazing info? Seeing a raging rainstorm well N&W of  NYC, and into New England? Please elaborate your brilliance in weather forecasting.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Icon getting interesting for the coast

What?

[Stormlover74]

43 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That's funny. All my local forecasts for amounts, which, granted, is WAY to early to put out amounts. Is over 6". My point is. Where do you get this amazing info? Seeing a raging rainstorm well N&W of  NYC, and into New England? Please elaborate your brilliance in weather forecasting.

Not sure because his response was to the 18z icon which doesn't show that at all. Now the gfs is another story

[MJO812]

December is still looking good with possible multiple threats.

[Snowlover11]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

December is still looking good with possible multiple threats.

10 day always looks good

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

10 day always looks good

Pattern is looking good in December. Should be a good month. 

Threats are already showing up 

[bluewave]

Looks like a split decision showing up for the first week of December. Long range models shifted colder with the trough into the East instead of the ridge from previous runs. But the large storm on the 2nd and 3rd shifted warmer with a further north track and stronger WAR.

Main issue with the storm is the very fast flow and lack of blocking allowed the high over New England to move off the coast. So the further north storm and slightly stronger WAR on the day of the storm pushed the rain to snow gradient just to the north and west of NYC.

Since the colder start to December is a new pattern not showing up until day 6-10, it’s uncertain how the current day 11-15 and beyond will actually play out. If you look back on our recent Decembers, they have a tendency to start out cold from the 1st through 15th. Then we get the warm up every year since 2011 between the 17th and 25th.

So it will be interesting to see how things actually play out vs what the models are currently showing. We would want to eventually see a colder storm for our area while we still have the cold. This is very important during La Nina’s since we need to get over 4” of snow in December to match the above vs below seasonal snowfall that I outlined a few days back in this thread. 

So hopefully we can connect with at least one storm next few weeks while the colder start is still nearby.

New early December pattern colder than old runs

Old run too warm for early December

 

New run warmer storm further north on the 2nd and 3rd

 

Old run storm track colder to the south and more suppressed

 

 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a split decision showing up for the first week of December. Long range models shifted colder with the trough into the East instead of the ridge from previous runs. But the large storm on the 2nd and 3rd shifted warmer with a further north track and stronger WAR.

Main issue with the storm is the very fast flow and lack of blocking allowed the high over New England to move off the coast. So the further north storm and slightly stronger WAR on the day of the storm pushed the rain to snow gradient just to the north and west of NYC.

Since the colder start to December is a new pattern not showing up until day 6-10, it’s uncertain how the current day 11-15 and beyond will actually play out. If you look back on our recent Decembers, they have a tendency to start out cold from the 1st through 15th. Then we get the warm up every year since 2011 between the 17th and 25th.

So it will be interesting to see how things actually play out vs what the models are currently showing. We would want to eventually see a colder storm for our area while we still have the cold. This is very important during La Nina’s since we need to get over 4” of snow in December to match the above vs below seasonal snowfall that I outlined a few days back in this thread. 

So hopefully we can connect with at least one storm next few weeks while the colder start is still nearby.

New early December pattern colder than old runs

Old run too warm for early December

 

New run warmer storm further north on the 2nd and 3rd

 

Old run storm track colder to the south and more suppressed

 

 

Crazy because a track to the bm would almost tend to be frozen even to the coast. Another month or so this would be a snow event for all of us. Eventhough I think the warm air is overdone by a degree or 2. 

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Crazy because a track to the bm would almost tend to be frozen even to the coast. Another month or so this would be a snow event for all of us. Eventhough I think the warm air is overdone by a degree or 2. 

I am hoping we can get follow up storm systems tracking south of Long Island in the coming weeks and months when it’s colder. We saw a storm take a similar track on 12-5-20 to our south with mostly rain along the coast. With very amped systems early in the season we need strong Arctic high pressure over New England like we got back on 11-15-18.

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Crazy because a track to the bm would almost tend to be frozen even to the coast. Another month or so this would be a snow event for all of us. Eventhough I think the warm air is overdone by a degree or 2. 

A track like this, this early in the season, was always tough for snow in the city (not something new).

I remember the December 2003 storm was around the 5th. That was BARELY all snow even back then (that had actual blocking). 

A benchmark track this early needs a deep cold air mas in place or blocking to keep a cold high / ne wind in place.

[TriPol]

I'm reminded of the December 2000 snowstorm. Different setup, but we had SSW, just like we do now. 

[NorthShoreWx]

The 12/5/2002 snowfall was a gem.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The 12/5/2002 snowfall was a gem.

And then we had 12/5-6/03 which was even better. And the 12/5 snow was mostly unexpected. 

[North and West]

.

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

Ensembles are starting to show snow for our area.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ensembles are starting to show snow for our area.

If surprize snow does fall,this is the week historically for it. It might even snow a little tomm am. Who really knows anymore? 

[anthonymm]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

I am hoping we can get follow up storm systems tracking south of Long Island in the coming weeks and months when it’s colder. We saw a storm take a similar track on 12-5-20 to our south with mostly rain along the coast. With very amped systems early in the season we need strong Arctic high pressure over New England like we got back on 11-15-18.

u know it's getting serious when bluewave lets out a hint of optimism.