11/8-11/10 First Snow and Lake Effect Event

[King James]

4 feet lol

[A-L-E-K]

Fwiw, tons of leaves on trees still here

[Baum]

I’ll believe it when I see it. Life time early season lake snow/snow event if it were to verify.

[mimillman]

Think this is a little extreme in Cook. I could see the LOT AFD playing out over Lake and Porter counties in Indiana but overnight guidance seems to have swung the band further east.

[Baum]

20 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Think this is a little extreme in Cook. I could see the LOT AFD playing out over Lake and Porter counties in Indiana but overnight guidance seems to have swung the band further east.

I’ve already got more than I expected.  Snowing and blowing out my window.

[Cary67]

[TheNiño]

1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said:

Oh and quite a snippet from the LOT AFD

By the time the lake effect ends on Monday, total snow amounts
will vary considerably across short distances. Where the snow
bands are most intense, total snow accumulations of 12 to 18
inches are expected with a ceiling of 2 to 4 feet if snow bands
end up stationary. This threat appears to be most pronounced
over Cook county, but may extend to Lake County Illinois and
Lake County Indiana, as well.

Lake effect is so wild. One place can get 2 feet then a few miles away basically nothing. Don’t envy these meteorologists trying to warn a major city.

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, mimillman said:

Think this is a little extreme in Cook. I could see the LOT AFD playing out over Lake and Porter counties in Indiana but overnight guidance seems to have swung the band further east.

Taking the under seems prudent, definitely surprised how hard LOT is hitting this

[OrdIowPitMsp]

What is the all time November snowfall record for Chicago? 

[nwohweather]

What a surprise 2” here in Toledo!

[hawkeye_wx]

The warmer models were correct for my area.  I did not see a single flake.

[Chicago916]

Can't remember seeing "snow and a chance of thunderstorms" in a p&c before. Was laughing thinking about nadocast outlining the shore during the event in a forecast, but I'm sure waterspouts are filtered out from forecasts.

[donsutherland1]

For reference, some historic data for Chicago:

Frequency Data for Select November Daily Snowfall Amounts:

And the histograms for the entire snow season:

[Brian D]

I've been having snow shwrs in my area since yesterday. Dusting in town this morning.

[Chicago Storm]

What is the all time November snowfall record for Chicago? 

For reference, some historic data for Chicago:

The problem re: Chicago snowfall records…

The core of activity will likely be east of ORD. So, in the end, it may be tough to see any sort of record falls, unless best activity is surprisingly further west.

Orientation may even keep MDW out of the absolute best as well, but we’ll see. Better shot there than ORD. Of course, nothing there would be official, but it would be documented at least.

[A-L-E-K]

Taking the under  

 

[magoos0728]

If any of this verifies in lakeshore areas around the city, the mess it'll cause will be off the charts.

I lived in Cobb County GA during a early December snowstorm and it took down power lines across the area. The night of the snowfall was lit up by transformers blowing across the area

[homedis]

Overall short term guidance seems pretty consistent with the snow band. 12z suite came a touch west with the main band compared to 06z, but only time will tell. Nevertheless, trying to not get my hopes up too much as we know how these setups can easily pull out of NE IL and into NE IN pretty fast 

[Baum]

9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Taking the under  

 

This is your winter.

[Chicago Storm]

Taking the under  
 

If it works out perfectly, you’re getting Buffalo-ed.

As you well know, odds say it won’t. But, if it does…

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

 

 

The problem re: Chicago snowfall records…

The core of activity will likely be east of ORD. So, in the end, it may be tough to see any sort of record falls, unless best activity is surprisingly further west.

Orientation may even keep MDW out of the absolute best as well, but we’ll see. Better shot there than ORD. Of course, nothing there would be official, but it would be documented at least.

Yes, I agree. I don't see O'Hare getting the top-end accumulations. I still think 4" or above is reachable, but not guaranteed given this setup.

[ChiTownSnow]

1 hour ago, Baum said:

I’ve already got more than I expected.  Snowing and blowing out my window.

My thoughts exactly.. I'm just happy I could enjoy first flakes this morning and not just some overnight mix