November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[powderfreak]

Already another 4” today at the upper mountain spot.  Hammering around 1”/hr.

[weatherwiz]

Pretty wild the differences that evolve between the GFS/Euro moving past like D4-5...first with strength/orientation of several features and then flat out how the pattern evolves. Here is to another winter of this crap I guess

[WxWatcher007]

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Already another 4” today at the upper mountain spot.  Hammering around 1”/hr.

Just light non-accumulating snow here. Deep winter feel though with ice dams everywhere lol. 

[Lava Rock]

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Already another 4” today at the upper mountain spot.  Hammering around 1”/hr.

Jay claiming 18" this week. Looks like decent off trail already

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Longer range teleconnectors like Dec 1-5th for winter implications

pretty significant -EPO is likely with the Pacific jet retracting and then breaking equatorward. that's going to have some staying power and will be able to tap into true Arctic air

[leo2000]

Getting a better Pacific as we head into December can't have both a good Atlantic and Pacific have to lose one rather lose the Atlantic anytime over the Pacific anyday. Still a decent atlantic too though it seems. 

[kdxken]

 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Longer range teleconnectors like Dec 1-5th for winter implications

Funny, on meteorologist. Gil Simmons live blog he does every morning. He mentioned this morning that he's really liking the period of December 9th through the 14th. Kind of bold going out that far at this point. He also did mention a couple of earlier chances as well. All good signs at this point

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

But didn't Kevin say we have a big warm-up for Thanksgiving? Lol

[alex]

It’s ripping 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

But didn't Kevin say we have a big warm-up for Thanksgiving? Lol

We tried to tell ‘em…

[Damage In Tolland]

Expected Tgiving torch now showing up on schedule 

https://twitter.com/scweather_wx/status/1989032413683675587?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Already another 4” today at the upper mountain spot.  Hammering around 1”/hr.

Getting in rare territory at the stake with only 3 of the past 66 years having more depth at this date 

[butterfish55]

You NNE guys live on another planet up there.  Unreal....The pictures are awesome

[weatherwiz]

I think the final week or so of the month could be above average but I can see things kind of changing moving through December...but we all know how this works. We've seen plenty of times these last several years where models break down patterns and yield favorable looks past D10 and it never verifies. My really main worry with moving into December is we get wave breaking across the west coast then troughs begin to weaken and lift northeast while pumping up a ridge out ahead. The ridges won't be long lasting but will be timed with storms and then we deal with cold on the back end with snow showers while ski areas up north cash in. I get very, very cautious when it comes to needing the PAC to breakdown. We need to see something in the short term that indicates this will happen. Hopefully we can win with threading the needle early on. 

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Expected Tgiving torch now showing up on schedule 

https://twitter.com/scweather_wx/status/1989032413683675587?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I could see that as the cold loads out west first. As it always does when these patterns shift. 

[Torch Tiger]

31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Expected Tgiving torch now showing up on schedule 

https://twitter.com/scweather_wx/status/1989032413683675587?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Yeah Euro has a wild cutter-torch pattern around then

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think the final week or so of the month could be above average but I can see things kind of changing moving through December...but we all know how this works. We've seen plenty of times these last several years where models break down patterns and yield favorable looks past D10 and it never verifies. My really main worry with moving into December is we get wave breaking across the west coast then troughs begin to weaken and lift northeast while pumping up a ridge out ahead. The ridges won't be long lasting but will be timed with storms and then we deal with cold on the back end with snow showers while ski areas up north cash in. I get very, very cautious when it comes to needing the PAC to breakdown. We need to see something in the short term that indicates this will happen. Hopefully we can win with threading the needle early on. 

The changes as we get past the Giggedy holiday are top latitude down ... The -WPO/-EPO totality is a big dawg hemispheric reordering. It actually originates from the the retrograde of the NAO across the Canadian archipelago ... to reposition into the Siberian-Alaska arc.   

That evolution drills a negative teleconnector down the Spine of the Rockies, first.  This causes an upward height burst over eastern continental mid latitudes.

- the Euro is too dramatic with that.

- the GFS looks suspiciously like not enough. 

Obviously this is all waaaaaay the fuck out at the temporal event horizon ... beyond which there be dragons! Buuuut, at a base climate/statistical level, if these teleconnector prognostics are correct with the higher latitude blocking reconstruction taking place, turning warm for 2 or even 5 days whatever over eastern N/A mid latitudes is solid fit.  It's a matter of how much or little.  

 

 

[Torch Tiger]

not bad looking