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November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...


Typhoon Tip
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Longer range teleconnectors like Dec 1-5th for winter implications

pretty significant -EPO is likely with the Pacific jet retracting and then breaking equatorward. that's going to have some staying power and will be able to tap into true Arctic air

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-npac_wide-z500_anom_5day-4331200.thumb.png.281b8db046ac3eb9a178dad7bb90cf4d.png

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Longer range teleconnectors like Dec 1-5th for winter implications

Funny, on meteorologist. Gil Simmons live blog he does every morning. He mentioned this morning that he's really liking the period of December 9th through the 14th. Kind of bold going out that far at this point. He also did mention a couple of earlier chances as well. All good signs at this point

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I think the final week or so of the month could be above average but I can see things kind of changing moving through December...but we all know how this works. We've seen plenty of times these last several years where models break down patterns and yield favorable looks past D10 and it never verifies. My really main worry with moving into December is we get wave breaking across the west coast then troughs begin to weaken and lift northeast while pumping up a ridge out ahead. The ridges won't be long lasting but will be timed with storms and then we deal with cold on the back end with snow showers while ski areas up north cash in. I get very, very cautious when it comes to needing the PAC to breakdown. We need to see something in the short term that indicates this will happen. Hopefully we can win with threading the needle early on. 

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