November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

I like light dinky’s and stuff. 

What In the sam hell?

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Like I said…NAO overrated more times than  not lately for us.  

Seems it's always better to have it decaying otherwise it's congrats Snookie

[Snowcrazed71]

Damn... The season hasn't even begun yet and there is already whining ( jk ). Hey... At least things seem to be heading in the right direction as we head towards December. Better this than a true Shyte pattern heading into the long range. 

[jsw]

3 hours ago, NoCORH4L said:

Better Aurora tonight maybe? 

Saw a link on NPR, NOAA site with Aurora info/forecast. Most is over my head, but it shows strong activity continuing in the Northern Hemisphere. Also, I am a sucker for nice visuals... Haha.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

 

 

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

There was a paper I read a few years ago about the use of the RONI and how it is a better indicator of the true state versus the traditional ONI. There were multiple examples used, but there was one that looked at the 2015/2016 event, which per ONI was super strong. Based on forecasts and guidance for a super strong EL Nino certain measures were taken (I want to say it was western Africa) in preparations for impacts to precipitation, etc and ultimately took too aggressive measures and it cost some industries alot of money. But per the RONI, the event was not nearly as strong and their weather for the winter season was more reflective of that of a moderate event. Essentially, the study indicated if they used the RONI they wouldn't have taken as aggressive measures. 

 

I prefer MACARONI

[rcostell]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I promise not to clog the thread lol but did want to share these here. It’s so weird to have today feel like January. Just a whole different world up here. 

I don’t have a good measuring spot yet but will try to get a snow board today. Been around 3” in the last few days. 

Downtown SLK!  Heres one from 12 miles to your northeast, up the Saranac River, in Franklin Falls (NW slope of Whiteface).  Light upslope continues... 

[WinterWolf]

38 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I prefer MACARONI

 …or Rice-a-RONI. 

[WxWatcher007]

49 minutes ago, rcostell said:

Downtown SLK!  Heres one from 12 miles to your northeast, up the Saranac River, in Franklin Falls (NW slope of Whiteface).  Light upslope continues... 

Awesome. I’m guessing you clean up nicely there each winter?

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 …or Rice-a-RONI. 

I haven’t made that stuff in forever. I need to get some. 

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I haven’t made that stuff in forever. I need to get some. 

Lol. The Sanfrancisco treat. 

[weatherwiz]

I really hope something changes moving through December. But I hope this really isn't another year of major wave breaking along the West Coast that pumps up a massive ridge across the eastern third of the country and we just see cutting/weakening storms as the approaching trough lifts out then we get several days of cold/dry on the backside of the systems and just rinse and repeat as the next wave break occurs and the next ridge builds. 

I think a month or two ago I made some comments that I didn't think ENSO will be a big player in the overall regime but kind of looking ahead...I actually wonder if (regardless of what ENSO indices show) the hemispheric pattern this winter may be reflective of what you would see in a stronger Nina event. 

[SouthCoastMA]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I haven’t made that stuff in forever. I need to get some. 

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol. The Sanfrancisco treat. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Lol…Guy is Jacked! 

[powderfreak]

Daily snows.  Dark November afternoons.

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

It’s just light dinky stuff. 

Sorry. The intensity of today's snow wasn't meant to be part of my post. Just more envisioning the tenure of the season being that a heavy band sets up on 93 to my east while I rot in the subby zone. #Negativity

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Sorry. The intensity of today's snow wasn't meant to be part of my post. Just more envisioning the tenure of the season being that a heavy band sets up on 93 to my east while I rot in the subby zone. #Negativity

You gonna rock this year Chris. 

[Lava Rock]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You gonna rock this year Chris. 

Kevin disagrees

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Kevin disagrees

Lol…he’s in the reverse psychology phase now.  As soon as the first big snow threat comes, he will morph into positive and gung-Ho Kevin. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol. The Sanfrancisco treat. 

Sauteed and simmered, The flavor can't be beat.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Daily snows.  Dark November afternoons.

Excuse me sir, but this is the New England forum.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I really hope something changes moving through December. But I hope this really isn't another year of major wave breaking along the West Coast that pumps up a massive ridge across the eastern third of the country and we just see cutting/weakening storms as the approaching trough lifts out then we get several days of cold/dry on the backside of the systems and just rinse and repeat as the next wave break occurs and the next ridge builds. 

I think a month or two ago I made some comments that I didn't think ENSO will be a big player in the overall regime but kind of looking ahead...I actually wonder if (regardless of what ENSO indices show) the hemispheric pattern this winter may be reflective of what you would see in a stronger Nina event. 

When this pops Dec rocks

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

When this pops Dec rocks

Let's hope 

[Ginx snewx]

NAO index daily correlation is a much more accurate indicator than the monthlies I see everyone compare  That catches transitional NAO . Those temporary blocks always occur during our long lasting very slow moving Nor'easters. Claiming the correlation is voodoo is unscientific 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's hope 

On all models its already starting 

[tamarack]

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Well stated, and I completely agree with the bolded as that can translate with respect to ENSO as well. I think alot of thinking and ideas out there when it comes to ENSO and impact to global regime are based off ideas from like the 1980's through early 2000's. Our wealth of knowledge, data, and event have grown substantially. In fact, I even think ENSO state may be overplayed, particularly if it is a weaker or even a moderate event (depending on how coupled). I think one issue here is we are too married to the CPC definition of ENSO...there are something like 50 published definitions on ENSO. There is more to it too then just what the SSTAs are. 

Just for fun I looked at my 27 winters of snow vis-a-vis ENSO, using the categories I've seen on here.  Current average is 88.5".   
EL NINO
Very strong (1):   48.2"   2015-16, my lowest winter
Strong (none):    n/a
Moderate (3):   77.2"   1 AN   99.0"/64.8"
Weak (4):         96.0"   3 AN  109.2"/85.1"
LA NADA (7):   86.3"  4 AN   112.8"/52.8"
LA NINA
Weak (4):        109.0"  3 AN   137.1"/68.0" 
Moderate (8):   85.7"  3 AN   142.3"/52.5"    Includes top winter and 2nd worst.
Strong (none):   n/a
Very strong:  None noted, 1950-51 on.

Probably means little or nothing.  

[CoastalWx]

Higher Polar heights beating down east coast ridge on the EPS

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I really hope something changes moving through December. But I hope this really isn't another year of major wave breaking along the West Coast that pumps up a massive ridge across the eastern third of the country and we just see cutting/weakening storms as the approaching trough lifts out then we get several days of cold/dry on the backside of the systems and just rinse and repeat as the next wave break occurs and the next ridge builds. 

I think a month or two ago I made some comments that I didn't think ENSO will be a big player in the overall regime but kind of looking ahead...I actually wonder if (regardless of what ENSO indices show) the hemispheric pattern this winter may be reflective of what you would see in a stronger Nina event. 

I think you're reading into it way too much. Someone I listen to that am really liking a lot with a weather page as mentioned several times now about disruption in the polar vortex. He's been on this thing for the last month and it looks like it's happening. It'd be the first time this has happened in decades in The month of November.

[George001]

17 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I think you're reading into it way too much. Someone I listen to that am really liking a lot with a weather page as mentioned several times now about disruption in the polar vortex. He's been on this thing for the last month and it looks like it's happening. It'd be the first time this has happened in decades in The month of November.

It will be interesting to see how that plays out. I have heard several long range forecasters favor a more severe winter for New England due to the combination of weak polar vortex and La Niña. It has been a fairly stormy fall pattern this year, very different to what we saw last year with a dry pattern until Feb. I am much more optimistic than usual, but like always we won’t know until it actually happens.

[jsw]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Saranac Lake

Roommate is from there, born and raised. I have seen some really nice photos from that area. And it's always the cold spot (SLK).

 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

When this pops Dec rocks

Very interesting Steve…very curious how this plays out, and if so, how it affects us here. Hopefully it doesn’t split and move into Siberia, or sit it’s fanny right on our faces either.