November 2025 OBS Discussion

[TJW014]

5 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Pre-treating roads out this way; let the brine begin! (Ugh). 

Couldn't be better timing. Just finished undercoating all the vehicles over the weekend.

[steve392]

28 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Pre-treating roads out this way; let the brine begin! (Ugh). 

Where abouts they doing this? 

[donsutherland1]

A weak system could bring a few scattered rain and/or snow showers tonight into tomorrow. No measurable snowfall is likely in New York City. Since daily snowfall and temperature records were kept, just 1 out of 55 (1.8%) systems with minimum temperatures of 38° or above had measurable snowfall in Central Park.

Afterward, tomorrow will be another cool day with highs topping out in the 40s. Below normal temperatures will prevail through at least Thursday. Highs will be mainly in the middle and upper 40s in New York City with lows in the middle and upper 30s.

A milder pattern will likely develop during the latter part of the week. Some rain or rain showers are possible. Once in place, the milder pattern could continue for a week or longer. 

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,389th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +27.87 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.686 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[nycwinter]

fall weather been so boring last few years in the northeast while california enjoys wild weather..

[sussexcountyobs]

Cloudy 34.1/21

[steve392]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

fall weather been so boring last few years in the northeast while california enjoys wild weather..

Why isn't there a west coast page on here unless I'm totally blind. 

[psv88]

36/28…

[sussexcountyobs]

Cloudy 32.5/24.4

[Sundog]

22 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Why isn't there a west coast page on here unless I'm totally blind. 

This website is only Americanwx pre Louisiana Purchase. 

[psv88]

29 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Why isn't there a west coast page on here unless I'm totally blind. 

They’re too busy enjoying life to spend time on a weather board 

[sussexcountyobs]

Cloudy 31.6/23.4

[wishcast_hater]

And now the eps agrees also. Flip to cold in the mid to long range.

I’m surprised how quiet this site has been regarding the cold and perhaps stormy December that’s being forecast. 1980’s cold. We are due.


.

[psv88]

33/28. It’s certainly cold enough to snow 

[psv88]

My point and click in Suffolk now says snow is likely tonight. Strange 

[STORMANLI]

31°

[STORMANLI]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

This website is only Americanwx pre Louisiana Purchase. 

Or maybe the original 13 colonies.

[eduggs]

Early returns on 0z snow a shift south and drier for NJ and points east. HRRR, RRFS, NAM, and RGEM show a similar trend. Converging on I-80 with a tenth or two of precip (regionally) in the snow-supporting column.

Our "stuff" is still back in WPA. It may blossom into CPA over the next few hours.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

I’m surprised how quiet this site has been regarding the cold and perhaps stormy December that’s being forecast. 1980’s cold. We are due.


.

Cold air comes in quicker next week by Turkey day .

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

33/28. It’s certainly cold enough to snow 

Seems that way, at least in the boundary, but it might stay dry.  Anything very light would probably be liquid.

[wdrag]

I've seen an ice pellet report via MPING over sw Long Island at 320AM.  Mixed rain/sleet NYC area with possibly a few wet flakes for the Bronx by the time 7AM rolls around. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Light snow. 33.3

[Tatamy]

Snow level is quite high in the Poconos early this morning.  Looks like you have to be at least 1500’ up to see steady snow currently and even there it’s difficult to find it sticking anywhere.  Places lower than that don’t look to see more than a mix at times.

[Joe Slezak]

@sussexcountyobs @wdrag Let me know if things start to pick up with the stuff coming in from the west.

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Cold air comes in quicker next week by Turkey day .

Oh look the classic warm/wet to cold/dry and vice versa pattern. SE ridge comes back every time 

[snowman19]

Flurries/on and off snow showers in Sloatsburg. Nothing sticking anywhere. 35 degrees 

[sussexcountyobs]

Snow by me was only sticking to non paved surfaces and roofs. The R/S line at least along the rt. 23 corridor was at rt. 287. Currently raining in Westwood NJ.

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t post here often, but happened to stumble upon this just now. Agree with what you said—it has been cloudy and windy (and snowy) with the coldest air masses—not great for rad cooling. I also agree with Bluewave on how warm Canada has been generally in recent years. If you look at most recent Decembers, with the exception of last year they have been headed in a warmer direction. 

The locals here talk about how fast a start it has been with snow, but we haven’t had any truly cold nights relative to what the area can get (not that I’m a local, I’m new to the area).

It’s been a cold month overall however. The airport is -3.3° as of 11/17. Normal hi/lo for today is 41/21. In the village we had a low today of 24…but we’re currently at 27° and will struggle to hit freezing again.

 

You are really lucky to be living in such a beautiful region. The stronger winds and lack of ideal radiational cooling there are also a function of the warmer air masses in nearby Canada. Since really cold Arctic air masses usually begin with strong cold air advection followed by a few nights of high pressure and calm clear nights behind  the Arctic fronts leading to the great radiational cooling.

We haven’t been getting this cold pattern in the Northeast with Canada so warm. The Northeast needs good cold pooling near Hudson Bay which has become more rare over time.

The airport station that was established in June 1998. It’s in a uniquely cold area with excellent cold air drainage. So it can be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the village. But that microclimate is still a good proxy since it is currently experiencing its 2nd longest streak not dropping to -30 or colder. The #1 longest streak was several years ago.

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= -30 
for SARANAC LAKE ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Period of record: 1998-06-06
1	1103	2019-01-14 through 2022-01-20
2	1018	2023-02-05 through 2025-11-18
3	524	2000-10-31 through 2002-04-07
4	460	2007-03-08 through 2008-06-09
5	399	2011-01-25 through 2012-02-27
6	353	2016-06-30 through 2017-06-17
7	341	2004-02-21 through 2005-01-26
8	329	2012-03-01 through 2013-01-23
9	326	2013-02-21 through 2014-01-12
-	326	2010-01-12 through 2010-12-03

https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/21443/20130218/why-lake-clear-is-so-very-cold

Feb 18, 2013 — The village of Saranac Lake has a reputation for cold. During the winter, it's frequently the coldest spot on the North Country weather map, sometimes the coldest in the lower 48 states. Overnight or early morning temperatures in January can hit 20 and sometimes 30 degrees below zero Fahrenheit.

That kind of cold is has brought the community a fair share of publicity over the years, but technically, that publicity should go to another community located about five miles outside of Saranac Lake: the hamlet of Lake Clear.

Watch the nightly forecast from WPTZ weatherman Tom Messner and you'll find Saranac Lake is often the coldest spot on the map. But that's actually not Saranac Lake's temperature.

The reading Messner and other forecasters are giving is recorded at the National Weather Service automated weather station at the Adirondack Regional Airport in Lake Clear. It's typically much colder there than it is in a short distance away in the village of Saranac Lake - sometimes as much as 10 to 15 degrees colder.

 

Enterprise

Sometimes the airport temperature is significantly colder than it is just a mile-and-a-half down the road in the hamlet of Lake Clear, where Bob Callaghan lives.

 

The same morning in mid-January that the airport weather station hit 31 below, Callaghan said he had minus 21 at his house. "The thermometer in the car definitely registers colder when we get in the area of the airport," Callaghan said. "Sometimes it's 10 degrees difference."

Why is it so much colder near the airport? What strange weather phenomenon is at work here?

Dave Werner started asking that question a few years ago. Werner lives in Malone and is a cooperative observer for the National Weather Service.

"Every day I'd compare my readings with all of upstate New York and Vermont," he said. "And it was so interesting to me that Saranac Lake [Lake Clear] was so much colder than every other place."

In 2008, Werner contacted the weather service's Burlington office and got an explanation.

"It's called cold air drainage," Werner said. "The bowl-shaped terrain around the Lake Clear airport is such that cold air settles or drains into the airport area, giving it significantly colder readings than are found in the village of Saranac Lake."

John Goff is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Burlington. He says Lake Clear is higher up, "and it's an open area, an open kind of clear area at the top of a hill where the cool air can kind of just pool."

For people who live and work in Lake Clear, the bitter cold winter temperatures brought on by this microclimate are just a fact of life.

Deb Gauthier is the Lake Clear postmaster: "It was minus 31 yesterday. When I went out at lunch time it was minus 21. You don't go out with wet hair, and you bundle up. We live with it."

Surprisingly, the arctic temperatures cause few headaches at the airport, according to its manager Corey Hurwitch.

"Just our equipment sometimes starting up is a little more difficult in the morning," he said.

[jm1220]

Looks like the snow level about 2100 feet here based on the radar beam height where the CC starts to show a mix. Bright banding over the south shore shows way high up it is snowing. Too bad it can’t be a month later. 

[ForestHillWx]

Snowing in Franklin, Sussex county, per my brother. Mix in chester with some slush on the grass. 

[nj08822]

2 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Snow level is quite high in the Poconos early this morning.  Looks like you have to be at least 1500’ up to see steady snow currently and even there it’s difficult to find it sticking anywhere.  Places lower than that don’t look to see more than a mix at times.

We got a coating in the Nazareth area (elev. 600 feet).  A nice surprise.