October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[wdrag]

06z EC 6 hr max G over 60MPH near NYC-NNJ coast.  long ways to go but the jet features argue for a moderate impact event Wednesday night-Thursday.  EC upper level difference is large. Lack of ML CAPE limits potential for SVR but if modeling continues this is going to be an impact event. No thread - just reviewing for. 12 HOUR primary event Thursday. 

[SACRUS]

40 / 38 off a low of 37 here.  Sunny today low 60s in the warmest spots, about the same tomorrow. Cooler close with the next threat of rain / storm later Wed (29th) into Thu (31st).  Nov opens near normal / slightly cooler with trough lifting out towards the 5th/6th and perhaps a one or two day warmup in between.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 79 (2001)
NYC: 79 (1963)
LGA: 78 (2001)
JFK: 77 (2001)


Lows:

EWR: 33 (1939)
NYC: 29 (1879)
LGA: 37 (1962)
JFK: 33 (1962)

 

Historical:

 

1918: The Canadian steamship Princess Sophia carrying miners from the Yukon and Alaska becomes stranded on Vanderbilt Reef. A strong northerly gale hampers rescue attempts the day before. The ship sinks on this day, killing the 268 passengers and 75 crewmen on board. 

 

1921 - A hurricane with 100 mph winds hit Tampa, FL, causing several million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1921: A devastating category 3 hurricane struck near Tarpon Springs, Florida. The storm caused 8 fatalities and is the latest in the calendar year a category 3 hurricane or stronger made landfall in the US.

1925: An F2 tornado moved though Woburn and Stoneham, MA, killing 1 person, injuring 6 others, and unroofing or damaging 75 buildings. This is the strongest tornado on record for so late in the year in New England. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1933: Boston, Massachusetts recorded the highest average one minute wind velocity from the northwest at 63 mph for October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1965: Once again, Fort Lauderdale is deluged with heavy rain for the second time in two weeks. 13.81 inches of rain falls in a 48 hour period. Many places were flooded for the second time. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1972: A storm from the Gulf of Mexico moved across North Florida, before striking Charleston and moving up the Appalachians. Very heavy rains of four to eight inches drenched areas around Norfolk, with the 6.29" on the 24th at Norfolk setting a daily rainfall record. (Ref. Late Nineteen Century Hurricanes)

1975: GOES-1, which was launched on October 16th.

1977 - Dutch Harbor in Alaska reported a barometric pressure reading of 27.31 inches (925 millibars) to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1981 - A northbound tornado caused two million dollars damage to Bountstown, FL, in less than five minutes. Fortunately no deaths occurred along its six mile path, which was 30 to 100 yards in width. Radar at Apalachicola had no indication of a tornado or severe weather. (The Weather Channel)

1982: A major coastal storm brought high winds to the Mid Atlantic, where winds gusted to 82 mph at the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel. Mt. Pisgah, NC picked up 11 inches of snow. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1987 - A storm system moving across the Saint Lawrence Valley produced 40 to 50 mph winds east of Lake Ontario. High winds downed some trees around Watertown NY, and produced waves seven feet high between Henderson Harbor and Alexandria Bay. Mason City IA and Waterloo IA tied for honors as cold spot in the nation with record lows for the date of 19 degrees. Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma and northern Texas produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 65 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms erupted over northeastern Texas during the late evening producing softball size hail at Newcastle and Jonesboro. Low pressure over James Bay in Canada continued to produced showers and gale force winds in the Great Lakes Region. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure over Nevada produced high winds in the southwestern U.S., and spread heavy snow into Utah. Winds gusted to 63 mph at the Mojave Airport in southern California. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to 12 inches at Snowbird, with 11 inches at Alta. "Indian Summer" type weather continued in the central and eastern U.S. Twenty cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 77 degrees at Alpena MI and 81 degrees at Saint Cloud MN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1997: A major snowstorm pounded Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska through the 26th. 51 inches of snow fell at Coal Creek, CO. 4 feet of snow fell over a wide area. The Denver Broncos nearly missed their flight to Buffalo, NY because of a huge storm that had dumped nearly 22 inches of snow. Known for its snow, Buffalo was actually sunny and mild as the Broncos struggled to get to the airport. 19.3 inches of snow fell at Goodland, KS to establish a new 24 hour snowfall record. A strong north wind whipped the snow into 15 to 20 foot drifts. Most roads were impassable for several days after the snow ended. There were heavy losses to cattle. Behind the storm, some locations reported record low temperatures for the date including: Scottsbluff, NE: 6°, Denver, CO: 8° (record low maximum of 21° later tied on 10/30/1991), Sheridan, WY: 8°, Rapid City, SD: 9°, Dillon, MT: 11°, Livingston, MT: 12°, Casper, WY: 13°, Colorado Springs, CO: 15°, Pocatello, ID: 15°, Goodland, KS: 18° and Billings, MT: 18°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2006: A winter storm brought heavy snowfall to Colorado Rockies. Snowfall totals of 12 to 22 inches were common over the higher terrain and 6 to 12 inches at lower levels; including Denver. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts approaching 50 mph at Denver International Airport pushed the snow drifts 3 to 4 feet deep. Thousands were left without power as the weight of the heavy snow snapped tree limbs on to power lines. Snowfall totals included: Aspen Springs: 25 inches, Conifer: 25 inches, Rollinsville: 23.5 inches, Idaho Springs: 23 inches, Blackhawk: 22.5 inches, Bailey: 21.5 inches, Bergen Park: 19 inches, Genesee: 18 inches, Jamestown: 18 inches, Boulder: 17 inches and Evergreen: 16 inches. Denver International Airport started as rain and a thunderstorm before changing to snow. This was after a daytime high of 70°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

2017: The high temperatures in Denver, Colorado was 84 degrees. By the morning hours on the 27th, the temperature fell to 13 degrees, a 71-degree change.

[hudsonvalley21]

30 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

For anyone who may have saw the observation, I promise you all it’s not snowing at KMGJ, just frost, looks like the low will be 34 here. 

35 was the low here. No frost IMBY.

[wdrag]

fwiw...Nov thread is up with no nuance from me. 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Can’t really lean on any AI data unless you know the integrity of the data used to train the AI.

 

 

 

It depends what you ask. I asked it extensive questions to get to the result, and there were links embedded within the output to see where Chat pulled the data from. 

It was basically a Google search.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Oct dep with a week to go

Through the 24th

 

ISP: +3.0 (2.42)
EWR: +2.5 (1.82)
JFK: +1.7 (2.02)
NYC: +1.2 (2.23)
TTN:  +0.9 (0.77)
LGA: +0.6  (2.13)

[NEG NAO]

I think last nights 0Z Euro run was reasonable - and I think a storm thread should be created if todays 12Z Euro run still shows something similar - at least a moderate impact event and possibly more along the coast which still hasn't fully recovered from the previous storm

[lee59]

39.1 my low

[wdrag]

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think last nights 0Z Euro run was reasonable - and I think a storm thread should be created if todays 12Z Euro run still shows something similar - at least a moderate impact event and possibly more along the coast which still hasn't fully recovered from the previous storm

If  a thread creates, it wont be until at least 6PM..  family considerations.  I might post a one liner that one is coming, prior to 6P.   Lot's of solution spread and that's why the ensembles are so timid.  I am pretty sure the ensembles are too weak. 

[psv88]

Coldest morning yet. 38.2

[Sundog]

My wind never died down and only reached 45

[psv88]

Westhampton hit 30

[FPizz]

33, frost

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

It depends what you ask. I asked it extensive questions to get to the result, and there were links embedded within the output to see where Chat pulled the data from. 

It was basically a Google search.

 

The only way to determine whether a lack of weather ballon data is causing a specific model error is to do a data denial experiment which is impossible without the data.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/14/weather/alaska-storm-weather-balloons-trump-cuts-nws-climate

How big of a difference the missing balloon data made, though, may never be known. The best way to determine that would be to run computer models with weather balloon data fed into them and without it, in what is known as a data denial experiment — impossible to do without the data itself.

[sussexcountyobs]

Low of 35.6 here. Currently 48.7

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

think last nights 0Z Euro run was reasonable - and I think a storm thread should be created if todays 12Z Euro run still shows something similar - at least a moderate impact event and possibly more along the coast which still hasn't fully recovered from the previous storm

Warmer storm track on the latest EPS with the low now tracking to our west instead of the east in earlier runs. We have seen this quite a bit in recent years. Have been getting warmer storm tracks even with -NAO and +PNA patterns. The WAR is a little stronger than earlier runs.

New run stronger WAR linking up with the Greenland block

Old run weaker WAR

 

[winterwx21]

Had a low temp of 37 this morning. The vegetable garden lives on. I don't think we'll be able to avoid frost for too much longer though with this cool pattern. Maybe we can get through next week, but I'll be surprised if the garden doesn't get killed during the 1st week of November. 

[wdrag]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

If  a thread creates, it wont be until at least 6PM..  family considerations.  I might post a one liner that one is coming, prior to 6P.   Lot's of solution spread and that's why the ensembles are so timid.  I am pretty sure the ensembles are too weak. 

Am in the midst of Halloween fun for my 3 year old granddaughter. My goal is to review the 12z EC/ECAI and then get going on a threat either 5-6P or after 830P.   12z GS ballistic like the prior EC, even more so. So, need to step back and fully assess late today.  Seemingly a moderate impact player ahead for Thu-Fri (rain/wind/power and minor CF).  Note some modeling starts showery rains Tuesday. 

[donsutherland1]

22 hours ago, Sundog said:

BTW @NEG NAO I also asked ChatGPT to break down the weather data network weather models ingest and to give me a percentage of the data the missed balloons represent. 

It did an extensive breakdown which is a lot to post, but the missing balloons represent between 0.01% to 0.028% of weather model data. 

I also researched the typical daily missed balloon launches worldwide for any reason, and that amounted to an average daily model ingestion data gap of between 0.097% to 0.24%.  This is for balloon launches specifically. 

In other words the sky isn't falling. 

 

I appreciate that some are trying AI. AI is here to stay and learning how to use it effectively is important. AI is already adding value to tasks, and it will almost certainly add even more value to tasks in the future. 

One should be familiar what it can and cannot do, recognize that it can and does make errors. Results should be verified by human examination of key results. Using multiple AIs to address the same prompt can also provide insight. If they provide a consistent outcome, one can have greater confidence in the generated outcome. If there are differences, that's often a sign that one or both have errors.

One should also know how to write effective prompts. When writing a prompt one should be focused on obtaining objective high-quality results. Such prompts are similar to an exploratory research question where one seeks to understand something while being careful to avoid influencing the results. Prompt injection (and bullying) assures that one gets bad results. Such prompts are typically written to confirm biases. AIs can break down under such tactics.

[MJO812]

Gfs brings back the storm

[Stormlover74]

[SnoSki14]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Warmer storm track on the latest EPS with the low now tracking to our west instead of the east in earlier runs. We have seen this quite a bit in recent years. Have been getting warmer storm tracks even with -NAO and +PNA patterns. The WAR is a little stronger than earlier runs.

New run stronger WAR linking up with the Greenland block

Old run weaker WAR

 

Some loaded new runs coming out. A west track would not be good. More strong winds, erosion and moderate to major coastal flooding 

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Awful Halloween 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Awful Halloween 

Icon and Canadian also ramped up. Still out there but the potential for something significant is there. We still have no idea what role Melissa's will play but Canadian heavily entrains part of her energy in 

[donsutherland1]

The GFS and GGEM have moved into good agreement about the potential for a significant or perhaps even major rain event for the closing days of October. 

Rainfall for the 48-Hour Period Ending 10/31 12z for NYC:

10/24 18z GFS: 0.0"
10/25 0z GFS: 0.0"
10/25 6z GFS: 1.5"
10/25 12z GFS: 4.7"

10/25 0z GGEM: 0.5"
10/25 12z GGEM: 4.3"

While the excessive amounts are far from certain, the general idea of a potentially widespread significant or greater rainfall is the key takeaway. The kind of powerful block in place under which a trough is trapped can lead to some big precipitation events.

 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Some loaded new runs coming out. A west track would not be good. More strong winds, erosion and moderate to major coastal flooding 

We need the rains so hopefully the low tracking to the west now can tap some moisture from the hurricane. If we can actually verify a soaking rainfall, then maybe we can begin putting the drought behind us. All of our long range forecasts have verified drier than originally forecast. If the 12z Euro comes in really juicy,  then it could be the beginning of a change to wetter. We will see…

[qg_omega]

CMC eventually pulls in the hurricane

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We need the rains so hopefully the low tracking to the west now can tap some moisture from the hurricane. If we can actually verify a soaking rainfall, then maybe we can begin putting the drought behind us. All of our long range forecasts have verified drier than originally forecast. If the 12z Euro comes in really juicy,  then it could be the beginning of a change to wetter. We will see…

Hopefully it's not too much at once though. All or nothing patterns are becoming common 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

CMC eventually pulls in the hurricane

The moisture, not the whole system.