October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs

The way it evolves looks almost subtropical. 

[wdrag]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The way it evolves looks almost subtropical. 

This is where NWS-NHC step in.  I accept their definition.  It is tropical moisture late this week unleashed by a developing cold core aloft (7h-5h as example this weekend) and the cold air bordering the system to the west and north. NWS OKX (or elsewhere) step in.

I've been out of NWS since 2018 but this might get an identity of some sort.  Little question in my mind regarding potential high impact along the coasts for LI-NJ southward and maybe across to the SNE coast?  I just want ECAI which has been consistent cyclically for an event since the 06z/4 cycle (see trop tidbits for `12z Monday Oct 13)

[wdrag]

.44 here in Wantage midnight-6A. 

[the_other_guy]

Cool looking radar this morning.

 

You dont see squall lines that pronounced around here at 7 am too often 

[IrishRob17]

13 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Cool looking radar this morning.

 

You dont see squall lines that pronounced around here at 7 am too often 

Agreed, pretty cool to see predication moving in two different directions.

[FPizz]

Pouring out, in the little squall line

[Sundog]

Just now, FPizz said:

Pouring out

I'm hoping that blob over you comes over NYC

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The way it evolves looks almost subtropical. 

Yeah, a subtropical or hybrid structure.

 

[FPizz]

Just now, Sundog said:

I'm hoping that blob over you comes over NYC

Seems to be heading there. 

[Snowlover11]

Finally some rain, hopefully more late weekend/early next week.

[MANDA]

24 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Agreed, pretty cool to see predication moving in two different directions.

Agreed!  Can't remember last time I saw something like this.  Really interesting.

[MJO812]

Showers here

[jm1220]

Front/squall line coming through. We’ll see if any of this rain over NJ comes through. Otherwise it looks like the split screw is happening as expected. Onto the weekend (hopefully) event.

[FPizz]

.65" so far, not bad

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, Sundog said:

I'm not really sure why they're laughing or calling you a weenie, I don't want to see >80 until June.  

I'm sure if it was in the 60s in July people would whine. So why should I have to deal with 80s in October?

We can say one thing for sure. The cutoff is now so deep on the EPS near the East Coast, that the trough axis stays along the East Coast next few weeks. So it does look like this past week will turn out to be the warmest of this whole month. So it’s possible that instead of 80s the warmest next few weeks is 70s with multiple days in the 60s.

 

 

[MANDA]

As of 8:00.....Light to some moderate rain ongoing.  Chilly and damp.  Temp. 59 with a gusty breeze.  Rainfall thus far .31".  Maybe another .10" to go.  A tad less than I was expecting but soil is primed for what may come over the weekend into early next week.

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

I'm hoping that blob over you comes over NYC

We need a blob here. The little squall line fell apart 

[WeatherGeek2025]

11 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The weekend deal if it happens is an occluding low cut off from cold air. It would be a cold windy rain on the coast and maybe snow inland/elevated. 

John,

I guess it depends on how much cold air we have in place and all but that type of system you're right it probably wouldn't be all snow as it swirls towards the coast a bit too much possibly dragging in warm air with it. Have a good day sir

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

We need a blob here. The little squall line fell apart 

If it makes you feel any better the blob is going north of NYC lol

Just as the latest models were showing the rain go to our south, a heavy batch actually ends up going to our north

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, a subtropical or hybrid structure.

 

The way X is hyping this as a classic extratropical “nor’easter” is totally laughable. It very clearly has subtropical characteristics and should be classified as such

[MJO812]

Cooler weather on the way 

[SACRUS]

 

66 / 64 clouds and some showers as front continue ds to come through. Should get some clearing later this afternoon.  Sunny / dry and cooler Thu - Sat.   Sun cut off and coastal as has been much advertised track / rainfall to be determined - potential 2+ widespread especially south/eastern section.  Beyond there ridge pushes east and overall warmer by Tue.  

[Picard]

0.56" overnight into this morning, which is far more than expected based on most of these falling apart or missing the area.  I did catch the squall line around 5:30 AM with wind and a heavy downpour.   Neat to see northeast movement of the overall system, and southeast movement of the squall line on the same radar loops.

[Sundog]

Nice hit on the 6z Euro for the weekend but I trust nothing. 

[lee59]

.10 of an inch of rain here so far and it does not look like much more. Was hoping for more but once again Long Island missed out

[forkyfork]

12 hours ago, Sundog said:

I'm sure if it was in the 60s in July people would whine. So why should I have to deal with 80s in October?

one is much more likely than the other

[jllevin79]

I know it's a few days away, but what are we at in terms of timing for the rain on Sunday for central NJ?

[psv88]

0.07. My grass is rapidly browning again. Just turned the sprinklers on 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, jllevin79 said:

I know it's a few days away, but what are we at in terms of timing for the rain on Sunday for central NJ?

verbatim it's mid day Sunday for start time down by you

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

0.07. My grass is rapidly browning again. Just turned the sprinklers on 

Yep, outside of a lucky spot or two 0.30” or less east of the city.