Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[CT Valley Snowman]

Some areas of decent color now up and down I-91 from Enfield down to about Wallingford but definitely not a banner year. 

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably blocked.

18z gfs most likely solution for tropical.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Some areas of decent color now up and down I-91 from Enfield down to about Wallingford but definitely not a banner year. 

I feel like leaves are about 2-3 weeks ahead of normal.   The oaks will be bare before Halloween here. 

[mreaves]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I feel like leaves are about 2-3 weeks ahead of normal.   The oaks will be bare before Halloween here. 

We’ve been in stick season for about two weeks already. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Some areas of decent color now up and down I-91 from Enfield down to about Wallingford but definitely not a banner year. 

It’s much more subdued than last year, but there are definitely some trees that are fire around Greenfield. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Decent sunset tonight.
 

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

18z gfs most likely solution for tropical.

Only a 3000 mile difference between 12z and 18z.  Consistent!

[dendrite]

Will some stay up tonight for the 00z euro?

[Diggiebot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Will some stay up tonight for the 00z euro?

Gfs shifting so much makes me think the gfs is up to gfs things. General pattern looks more favorable than any threat this whole season. 

[dendrite]

All nighter then?

[Modfan2]

Nice rad cooling, down to 36F. Now to add winds to the mix today to make it feel chilly today 

[CoastalWx]

Breezy and 45.

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, dendrite said:

All nighter then?

At least we can put the 360hr fantasies to bed. 

[kdxken]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least we can put the 360hr fantasies to bed. 

Something will come to replace it.

[512high]

42F for the low light wind, lets see what those winds do today, my city usually misses everything......

[alex]

Cloudy and 35/32… will we see flakes? :p

 

 

[dendrite]

38.9/30 and breezy 

In theory it’s probably cold enough for some CAA flakes here as well. 

[CoastalWx]

Nice start to winter out west and especiall Canadian Rockies with what else..more blues there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

At least we can put the 360hr fantasies to bed. 

11 summers I have ben doing this blog and this is the first without so much as  a mention of the tropics, which means there were 0.00 viable major US threats.

[Ginx snewx]

On 10/13/2025 at 6:07 PM, Ginx snewx said:

First big snows NNE elevation Oct 20th within a day or 2

 

1 hour ago, alex said:

Cloudy and 35/32… will we see flakes? :p

 

 

 

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

38.9/30 and breezy 

In theory it’s probably cold enough for some CAA flakes here as well. 

Better chances coming up soon. 

[dendrite]

Not sure if it was legit, but FVE briefly reported -SN at the ASOS this morning. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

11 summers I have ben doing this blog and this is the first without so much as  a mention of the tropics, which means there were 0.00 viable major US threats.

Not to toot horns or anything but ... I remember posting back in spring that I thought this season would be challenged.  The reasoning cited was because of the - wait for it! - expanded HC phenomenon. Not just endemic to this season ... it's all summers going forward until the phenomenon historically reverses - when humanity goes extinct and is no longer terraforming the world ... but that's another debate altogether.  I think we can still get the higher end predictive quotas... but TC life behaviors are that they tend to spin up faster, and can reach big intensity, but also don't last as long because of what's going on in the paragraph below...

See ... ( just in case one person is actually interested - ), an expanded HC is not a stronger HC.  It is a weaker one.   The more it expands, the less identity it has as an actual circulation.  It starts to fracture... More trough meanders and TUTT riddled.  This both lowers the probability that an MDR transport makes it that far before encountering either a polarward steering interference, or an enhanced shear.   Looking back at this season and well ... it seems pretty clear that both those circumstances were observed as being particularly interfering.   Maybe I just got lucky with this overall idea?  but I don't think so.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to toot horns or anything but ... I remember posting back in spring that I thought this season would be challenged.  The reasoning cited was because of the - wait for it! - expanded HC phenomenon. Not just endemic to this season ... it's all summers going forward until the phenomenon historically reverses - when humanity goes extinct and is no longer terraforming the world ... but that's another debate altogether.  I think we can still get the higher end predictive quotas... but TC life behaviors are that they tend to spin up faster, and can reach big intensity, but also don't last as long because of what's going on in the paragraph below...

See ... ( just in case one person is actually interested - ), an expanded HC is not a stronger HC.  It is a weaker one.   The more it expanse, the less identity it has as an actual circulation.  It starts to fracture... More trough meanders and TUTT riddled.  This both lowers the probability that an MDR transport makes it that far before encountering either a polarward steering interference, or an enhanced shear.   Looking back at this season and well ... it seems pretty clear that both those circumstances were observed as being particularly interfering.   Maybe I just got lucky with this overall idea?  but I don't think so.

We need the "sick brag, bro" clip from WEEI

[Torch Tiger]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We need the "sick brag, bro" clip from WEEI

I have that clipped on sound board lol. Won't let me upload here

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to toot horns or anything but ... I remember posting back in spring that I thought this season would be challenged.  The reasoning cited was because of the - wait for it! - expanded HC phenomenon. Not just endemic to this season ... it's all summers going forward until the phenomenon historically reverses - when humanity goes extinct and is no longer terraforming the world ... but that's another debate altogether.  I think we can still get the higher end predictive quotas... but TC life behaviors are that they tend to spin up faster, and can reach big intensity, but also don't last as long because of what's going on in the paragraph below...

See ... ( just in case one person is actually interested - ), an expanded HC is not a stronger HC.  It is a weaker one.   The more it expanse, the less identity it has as an actual circulation.  It starts to fracture... More trough meanders and TUTT riddled.  This both lowers the probability that an MDR transport makes it that far before encountering either a polarward steering interference, or an enhanced shear.   Looking back at this season and well ... it seems pretty clear that both those circumstances were observed as being particularly interfering.   Maybe I just got lucky with this overall idea?  but I don't think so.

Pretty sure I saw that mentioned somewhere too. Also goes to show you there's a lot we still need to learn. Warmer waters does not equate to more canes. There's a lot that goes into it.

[UnitedWx]

15 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Some areas of decent color now up and down I-91 from Enfield down to about Wallingford but definitely not a banner year. 

I'm heading to an event in Hilliard Ohio tomorrow morning. I'll be taking RT 80 through PA, and hoping to see some good color along the way.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty sure I saw that mentioned somewhere too. Also goes to show you there's a lot we still need to learn. Warmer waters does not equate to more canes. There's a lot that goes into it.

Kind of analagous to how warmer temps do not equate to smaller snow storms, unless you live....here, apparantly lol. But these frontier concepts get oversimplified.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kind of analagous to how warmer temps do not equate to smaller snow storms, unless you live....here, apparantly lol. But these frontier concepts get oversimplified.

Hurricanes for being so powerful, are so prone to small factors that influence their intensity. Fascinating when you think of it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hurricanes for being so powerful, are so prone to small factors that influence their intensity. Fascinating when you think of it.

Absolutely...I equate it to squats in weightlifting.....it's the goliath of lifts, but it's so dependent upon balance, stability and mobility....all of these minute details that are requisite for the unleashing of such fury.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely...I equate it to squats in weightlifting in the forest.....it's the goliath of lifts shits when your hiking with hot chick and stupidly downed a sleeve of trailmix, but it's so dependent upon balance, stability and mobility....all of these minute details that are requisite for the unleashing of such fury.