September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[Sundog]

The trajectory of the precip to our west and southwest looks like it will take it northwest of our area. 

I hope something else blossoms that could give everyone a nice soaking as opposed to this ultra scrattered popcorn crap. 

[Sundog]

Up to a whopping 0.14 here after this last batch of scattered rain showers moved through. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

On 9/23/2025 at 2:23 PM, WestBabylonWeather said:

It’s not going to rain is it. 

Well……it rained a little bit. 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The trajectory of the precip to our west and southwest looks like it will take it northwest of our area. 

I hope something else blossoms that could give everyone a nice soaking as opposed to this ultra scrattered popcorn crap. 

The new RRFS A has been maintaining that trajectory for days now with the heaviest focused to our NW. It’s still considered an experimental forecast so doesn’t really get included in the mix during forecast discussions.

It could be that the warmer conditions with the record 70° lows resulted in the front stalling a little more to the NW of the very wet models like the Canadian suite focusing the max right through our area.

So the stalled front would up further north than the wetter models.

[Sundog]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The new RRFS A has been maintaining that trajectory for days now with the heaviest focused to our NW. It’s still considered an experimental forecast so doesn’t really get included in the mix during forecast discussions.

It could be that the warmer conditions with the record 70° lows resulted in the front stalling a little more to the NW of the very wet models like the Canadian suite focusing the max right through our area.

So the stalled front would up further north than the wetter models.

That stuff in Virginia and Maryland might clip us after watching a long radar loop on College of Dupage.

It's going to be a close call.  

[jm1220]

The 2”+ amounts some models had for the city east aren’t happening outside of a lucky small swath here and there and as usual the better stuff will be NW generally. More of this again and again.

[lee59]

.27 inch of rain yesterday an .35 inch so far today.

[SACRUS]

73 / 71 cloudy some light showers 0.20 in the bucket.  Clouds sticking around much of the next few days with Friday the exception.  Warm / humid some additional rain later today and then on Sunday.   Eyes turn to Imelda and Humberto with Imelda the EC risk.  Overall warm beyond the twin tropics in the 10/3 period and beyond.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 91 (1970)
NYC: 90 (1970)
LGA: 90 (2010)
JFK: 87 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 39 (1950)
NYC: 40 (1887)
LGA: 42 (1950)
JFK: 45 (1989)

Historical:

 

1848 - The Great Gale of 1848 was the most severe hurricane to affect Tampa Bay, Florida and is one of two major hurricanes to make landfall in the area. This storm produced the highest storm tide ever experienced in Tampa Bay when the water rose 15 feet in six to eight hours.

1848: The Tampa, FL area was hit by a major hurricane. The pressure plunged to 28.18 inches of mercury and the storm surge reached 15 feet. The army post in the area was wiped out. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1926: The coldest temperature ever recorded in Scottsbluff, NE for the month of September occurred on this with a low of 14°, while Chadron, NE recorded their lowest September temperature with 15°. Western Yellowstone, MT recorded -9 °F which was then the lowest temperature reading in the 48 states for September. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)


1929: Willmar, MN experiences a deluge that dropped 5.22 inches of rain in 24 hours. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1939 - A west coast hurricane moved onshore south of Los Angeles bringing unprecedented rains along the southern coast of California. Nearly five and a half inches of rain drenched Los Angeles during a 24 hour period. The hurricane caused two million dollars damage, mostly to structures along the coast and to crops, and claimed 45 lives at sea. ""El Cordonazo"" produced 5.66 inches of rain at Los Angeles and 11.6 inches of rain at Mount Wilson, both records for the month of September. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)


1942: The earliest first trace of snow in Chicago occurred on this date in 1942 and 1928.  First snow of the season Average; October 30 Earliest; September 25 (1928 and 1942) Latest; December 5, 1999 First measurable snow (.1 inches or more) of the season Average; November 16 Earliest; October 12, 2006 Latest; December 16, 1965 Snow Trivia for Chicago - NWS

1953: The center of Hurricane Florence hit the northwest Florida coast between Valparaiso and Panama City near midday with wind maximum sustained winds near 80 mph with gusts to 90 mph and heavy rainfall. The Pensacola Weather Bureau Office reported winds of up to 75 mph early the next morning. The storm passed inland over a sparsely settled area of Florida and this probably accounts for the rather small amount of damage. In Franklin and Okaloosa Counties the Red Cross estimated that 273 homes were destroyed, 145 other buildings damaged, and three destroyed. A fishing trawler, the "Miss Tampa" was reported missing in the storm's wake. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1962: The remnants of Tropical Storm Claudia of 1962 dumped up to 7 inches of rain in the desert west of Tucson, AZ, causing severe flooding. By the year 2010 there had already been six storms by the name of Claudia. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1975: On September 25 and 26 Elloise gave Hayfield secondary School 5.58 inches rain that closed Fairfax County schools September 26th 1975. The remnants of Hurricane Eloise combined with a cold front and produced very heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic. Washington, DC reported 9.08" of rainfall. Total damage for Virginia was estimated to be $17.2 million. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1976: Up to 3 inches of rain fell on Tucson, Arizona. About a dozen cars, some occupied, were swept down the washes, resulting in one death. Two boys were carried down the Rillito River for a mile before they could reach ground after their car was swept away. Talk about lucky! (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1984: Sheridan, WY recorded their coldest September temperature on record when they fell to 6°. 21 inches of snow fell at Sheridan between the 23rd and the 27th. This made it their snowiest September on record. Other record lows included: Cheyenne, WY: 17°, Casper, WY: 20° and Rapid City, SD: 24°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Hurricane Emily crossed the island of Bermuda during the early morning. Emily, moving northeast at 45 mph, produced wind gusts to 115 mph at Kindley Field. The thirty-five million dollars damage inflicted by Emily made it the worst hurricane to strike Bermuda since 1948. Parts of Michigan and Wisconsin experienced their first freeze of the autumn. Snow and sleet were reported in the Sheffield and Sutton areas of northeastern Vermont at midday. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure off the Northern Pacific Coast brought rain and gale force winds to the coast of Washington State. Fair weather prevailed across most of the rest of the nation. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Twenty-three cities in the south central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Topeka KS with a reading of 33 degrees, and Binghamton NY with a low of 25 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. drenched Atlanta GA with 4.87 inches of rain, their sixth highest total of record for any given day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1993: In both human and economic terms the Great Flood of 1993 was the most devastating in modern U.S. history. It was a catastrophe across portions of 9 states with losses estimated up to $20 billion dollars. Over 50,000 homes were damaged or destroyed forcing the evacuation of some 54,000 people. In all the floods took 50 lives. Water level records were set at 49 places on the Missouri River system and at 43 places on the upper Mississippi River system. The flood was notable for its duration as well as its size. Flooding began in March with record floods beginning in May and continued into September. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1994: Hail to 1 inch diameter was pounding Hebron, NE. A man ventured out into the storm to release a dog tied to a tree. Lightning killed the man and injured a woman at the scene. The dog was unhurt. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1996: An early season snowstorm brought the season’s first snow to the Front Range eastern foothills in northern Colorado. Heavy snowfall totals included: 8 to 12 inches near Conifer, 7 inches at Floyd Hill, 6 inches at Bailey & Chief Hosa and 4.7 inches at Denver.
Heavy rain fell in the Blackwell area of north-central Oklahoma beginning the previous day through this date, causing many roads to be closed. National Weather Service radar estimated that more than three inches of rain fell in less than 90 minutes in central Kay County, late in the evening. The two day rainfall in Blackwell totaled 9 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1998: By the 5 PM ET advisory, 4 hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893. After moving along the north coast of Cuba the previous day, Georges crossed the Florida Keys, heading into the Gulf of Mexico. The storm had re-intensified with winds of 105 mph when it made landfall near Key West, FL midday. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1998 - Four hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893.

2004: Jeanne after performing a complete loop over the open Atlantic, it headed westwards, strengthening into a Category 3 hurricane. Jeanne passed over the islands of Great Abaco and Grand Bahama in the Bahamas on September 25. Jeanne made landfall later in the day of the 25th in Florida just 2 miles (3 kilometers) from where Frances had struck 3 weeks earlier. Building on the rainfall of Frances and Ivan, Jeanne brought near-record flood levels as far north as West Virginia and New Jersey before its remnants turned east into the open Atlantic. Jeanne is blamed for at least 3,006 deaths in Haiti with about 2,800 in Gonaïves alone, which was nearly washed away by floods and mudslides. The storm also caused 7 deaths in Puerto Rico, 18 in the Dominican Republic and at least 4 in Florida, bringing the total number of deaths to at least 3,025. Final property damage in the United States was $6.8 billion, making this the 13th costliest hurricane in U.S. history. Hurricane Jeanne's Track - Weather Underground (Ref. More on Hurricane Jeanne)

[Brian5671]

30 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The 2”+ amounts some models had for the city east aren’t happening outside of a lucky small swath here and there and as usual the better stuff will be NW generally. More of this again and again.

 A little better than last year where we went 2 months without anything at all.   But yeah, can't buy a good soaking

[SACRUS]

 

what should become Imelda looks to stay along the EC (where is the key) next week and dump some serious rains

[SACRUS]

 

Sep departures (thru 24)

 

7

 

EWR: +0.5
NYC: -0.4
JFK: -0.7
LGA: -1.2

[psv88]

0.46. Those 3” totals are not happening 

[STORMANLI]

0.69"

[uofmiami]

0.87” in Syosset & 0.52” in Muttontown. 

[Rmine1]

At least there’s a nice breeze to go along with the low DPs. 
 

[SnowDemon]

7 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

At least there’s a nice breeze to go along with the low DPs. 
 

It's humid but the breeze still feels somewhat raw.

[Stormlover74]

Once again models were mostly unreliable. Euro had an inch at ewr falling by 18z and they've barely crossed .1

Rgem way overdone. Nam sucked per usual

[forkyfork]

maybe the nw trend can help us with this next disturbance on the front

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Once again models were mostly unreliable. Euro had an inch at ewr falling by 18z and they've barely crossed .1

Rgem way overdone. Nam sucked per usual

Horrible performance by just about every model

[FPizz]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Once again models were mostly unreliable. Euro had an inch at ewr falling by 18z and they've barely crossed .1

Rgem way overdone. Nam sucked per usual

RGEM has sucked a lot the past year or so with precip

[doncat]

Geez 0.12" here...maybe the southern extent near philly clips us.

[MJO812]

I was looking forward to alot of rain today. Another model bust. 

[Dark Star]

44 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

what should become Imelda looks to stay along the EC (where is the key) next week and dump some serious rains

Carolinas likely...

[FPizz]

.22" so far.  

[MANDA]

.28" here so far.  Fog and drizzle currently.  Visibility 1/4 to 1/2 mile here on top of the hill.

[WeatherGeek2025]

How much has Central park received so far since yesterday? 

[Sundog]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

How much has Central park received so far since yesterday? 

0.24

[Sundog]

Of course the southern extent of the rain in Virginia fizzled out, the only part that had a chance of getting the NYC area. 

[Picard]

I should be up to a half inch since Tuesday night with the latest light rain, which almost puts me in the jackpot this time.

With all of the dreariness and gross humidity the past two days, people will perceive that we've gotten much more rain than we actually have.