O'Brother Septorcher

[SJonesWX]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Clouds here and stuck in upper 50s thankfully. 

you're thankful for a cloudy morning? man, you have really jumped the shark.

[CT Rain]

44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

My eyes opened up a bit when I checked the llvl moisture. Don't often see dews into the 60's in this type of setup.

Really nice looking hail setup 

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Really nice looking hail setup 

Probably one of the better hail setups we've had in quite some time. 

[dendrite]

55 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

you're thankful for a cloudy morning? man, you have really jumped the shark.

gwlh

[WxWatcher007]

We uninstalled. Could’ve done it a week ago. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Was quite foggy this morning, Starting to take down the garden, Game Cams are out, Going to be in the woods in a couple weeks, From what i can see, Not as many acorns dropping this year like last year.

Nice!  I've seen almost no deer sign in our woodlot, though our new neighbors (they plan to build next summer, now doing some road and clearing work) have captured does and a nice buck on their trailcams.
Another sunny cool day.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup, surprisingly gross day. Summer is long gone.

It’s been gone but I feel for those that repeatedly called for endless summeh thru cOctober. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

you're thankful for a cloudy morning? man, you have really jumped the shark.

No I meant that it kept lows up. Not ready for cold.

[dryslot]

23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been gone but I feel for those that repeatedly called for endless summeh thru cOctober. 

Its been gone and lol to the ones "wishing" it was still here.

[Great Snow 1717]

27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been gone but I feel for those that repeatedly called for endless summeh thru cOctober. 

That is what happens with wishcasters...lol

[ineedsnow]

Congrats Maine!!! 

[Dan76]

[dendrite]

Top 10 afternoon 

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Top 10 afternoon 

It was a beauty all day.

74/39 with sun is chamber all day long.

 

River through town getting very low.  Only about 10-15 feet wide at many spots.

[WxWatcher007]

Saw my first wooly caterpillar mowing the backyard today. 

[kdxken]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Saw my first wooly caterpillar mowing the backyard today. 

Did he do a good job?

[Snowedin]

15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

40F

Classic September type mornings lately.

September? Man, you must’ve taken a time Machine about 3 months into the future! Plenty more days of cool, misty and melting snowflakes lie ahead. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, kdxken said:

Did he do a good job?

 

[dendrite]

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

What was his prediction?

[Typhoon Tip]

so much for that.  The Euro/GGEM collapsed pretty far toward the GFS' more progressive, less digging cold pool Sunday.   Bye-bye tentative severe. In fact, even QPF chances are almost dried up entirely.

So ... should this be the case, let it be known, GFS did considerably better than either the Euro or Canadian from a range of ~96+ hours. 

[Typhoon Tip]

get used to that this winter ... 'Euro/GGEM collapsing toward progressivity'    once we get toward mid winter, suspect a lot of pissin' and moanin'  ha

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Impressively steep radiational cooling resulted last night.  60s above ~700 ft and present hour, while lingering 40s in some places lagging recovery underneath.  

FIT's bounced 20 already ... 44 --> 63andchange

Looking at the NAM's grid we could be 80 to 82 later on.  

[SJonesWX]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

so much for that.  The Euro/GGEM collapsed pretty far toward the GFS' more progressive, less digging cold pool Sunday.   Bye-bye tentative severe. In fact, even QPF chances are almost dried up entirely.

So ... should this be the case, let it be known, GFS did considerably better than either the Euro or Canadian from a range of ~96+ hours. 

it's funny, i am planning a family gathering at the house Sunday. Based on the forecasts I have seen, i have been focusing on having an indoor event. then I wake up this morning and not a drop of rain in the forecast. weird how that works.

Of course if i change my plan to an outdoor event, 100% chance it will rain

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

it's funny, i am planning a family gathering at the house Sunday. Based on the forecasts I have seen, i have been focusing on having an indoor event. then I wake up this morning and not a drop of rain in the forecast. weird how that works.

Of course if i change my plan to an outdoor event, 100% chance it will rain

It could come back...  but you're proooobably safe. 

truth be told .. the diving cold pool cinema of Euro/GGEM looked a little dubious all along.  I wouldn't sell at least a diving S/W, though - not sure that would be enough to trigger much but the risk wouldn't be zero.

As related topic ... this journey is a nice example of the recurring de-amplification theme that's been plaguing all guidance really for several years on going. I mean at this point I just automatically deduct something like 20 or even 40% off any D7 anything the models might be showing at that range. If a cyclone is on the EC in a Euro's D8, it has to be a 950 mb worst storm in the history of Jupiter in order for us to achieve a standard Nor'easter.

I'm not sure why that is, that seemingly dependable amplitude collapse when moving modeled events from .. D8s to D4s and so forth.   I am a decent sci fi author.  I can pen all kinds of plausible causes for that predictable error - speculation.  I'd love to have a lunch with the director of modeling at NCEP - if any such post actually still exist.. heh.  Speak candidly about this subject.  I could see all this being done deliberately, so that they always see the worst case scenario - plausible cause 1.  I mean, they're not in the business to entertain us, much to our chagrin.  Their responsibility is to protect people and property.  So, it would be bad if they were always modeling pieces of shits that turned into historic roses going the other way, huh.  Or not.  who knows

[dendrite]

I could actually end up with less rain in September than August. Impressive.

[weatherwiz]

52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

so much for that.  The Euro/GGEM collapsed pretty far toward the GFS' more progressive, less digging cold pool Sunday.   Bye-bye tentative severe. In fact, even QPF chances are almost dried up entirely.

So ... should this be the case, let it be known, GFS did considerably better than either the Euro or Canadian from a range of ~96+ hours. 

yup...oh well. It was fun to look at while it lasted  

[dendrite]

[ineedsnow]

528 touching Northern Maine!! 

[mreaves]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pffft, you're not even in D3.

[CoastalWx]

That's mindblowing to see that up north.