Torch Tiger Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I lost my mind with Edouard....I was a HS kid and didn't know any better. I was so excited and ended up absolutely despondent. In fairness, it was a pretty good hit for ACK. 90mph gust iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 44 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Let’s just add the entire western basin into the cone… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: In fairness, it was a pretty good hit for ACK. 90mph gust iirc In fairness, that isn't too rare in major nor' easters. It wasn't a huge deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago I knew climo favored a recurve, but my goodness... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Interesting to see the euro AI model keep shifting west past few runs. No idea what it is seeing though. Hitting the east coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Of oddity, the euro AI and the icon have nearly identical low placement at 00z thursday hour 180... How did AI models do last hurricane season? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago The GFS is trending a bit towards a trough capture. Certainly too late for a New England landfall, but brings Atlantic Canada back into the conversation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The GFS is trending a bit towards a trough capture. Certainly too late for a New England landfall, but brings Atlantic Canada back into the conversation Newfoundland in particular. They’ve been getting either glancing blows or direct hits sporadically on the op Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12Z Euro: it doesn’t recurve til 75W and thus comes within 150 miles of NC! The OB are directly affected by its NW side. Gary Slezak, is that you? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago And that would be similar to the euro ai and icon solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 24 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro: it doesn’t recurve til 75W and thus comes within 150 miles of NC! The OB are directly affected by its NW side. Gary Slezak, is that you? Big shift West on the EPS as well 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Come on Erin, you can do this! We’re in another drought up here in the northeast and it’s almost the 30th anniversary of Hurricane Gloria! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, TriPol said: Come on Erin, you can do this! We’re in another drought up here in the northeast and it’s almost the 30th anniversary of Hurricane Gloria! Err…40th. God I’m getting old. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago AL, 05, 2025081318, , BEST, 0, 163N, 443W, 45, 1002, TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago COME ON ERIN BAM BAM BAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Big shift West on the EPS as well To follow up on that, here's the measurement tool (shift+drag mouse) to see this ECMWF average is approximately 250 naut. miles west of Bermuda 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro: it doesn’t recurve til 75W and thus comes within 150 miles of NC! The OB are directly affected by its NW side. Gary Slezak, is that you? Exactly as modeled that would cause some serious coastal damage on the outer banks. Wash overs and severe beach erosion. And to a lesser extent all the way to New England from swell action. I’ll pass on Erin getting that closer as the circulation would be close enough to effect local winds here on Long Island ruining the big surf for surfing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago New Moon next Saturday won't help things. Certainly 7'+ swells up my way from a storm between the coast and Bermuda are possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago From elsewhere: all progging majors 12z, August 13, hurricane model blend, Erin--- Model peak intensity ---HWRF = 944mb/117ktHMON = 952mb/115ktHAFS-A = 932mb/126ktHAFS-B = 928mb/127kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Still think there’s a very long way to go before thinking this is a bona fide US threat with a lot that needs to change but you can see the current changes looking at the last four EPS runs in the steering pattern. I don’t think today’s runs are enough to say there’s a trend. If 00z is similar, then maybe. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted 22 minutes ago Share Posted 22 minutes ago From elsewhere: all progging majors 12z, August 13, hurricane model blend, Erin--- Model peak intensity ---HWRF = 944mb/117ktHMON = 952mb/115ktHAFS-A = 932mb/126ktHAFS-B = 928mb/127kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago Tropical Storm #Erin continues trucking west and is showing signs of life after nearly two days of struggling. While a weakness in the western Atlantic ridge is a given, how quickly the ridge rebounds and what role an eastern US trough play could lead to some longer-term track intrigue. In-depth analysis and a parody of a 1970s R&B classic here: https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/losin-latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 7 minutes ago Share Posted 7 minutes ago 5 minutes ago, jconsor said: Tropical Storm #Erin continues trucking west and is showing signs of life after nearly two days of struggling. While a weakness in the western Atlantic ridge is a given, how quickly the ridge rebounds and what role an eastern US trough play could lead to some longer-term track intrigue. In-depth analysis and a parody of a 1970s R&B classic here: https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/losin-latitude Good read there if that trough weakens is game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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